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政治大學選舉研究中心研究員、東亞研究所教授、台灣政經傳播研究中心。
Electoral Competition, Incumbency, News Coverage, and Prediction Market Price: A Preliminary Study of Campaign Contributions and Spending in Taiwan’s 2016 Legislative Elections (in English)(選舉差距、現任者優勢、新聞報導以及預測市場價格:探討台灣2016 立委選舉的捐款與支出)
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In a political campaign, candidates attempt to mobilize voters by using contributions from individuals, corporations, and political parties. It is an accepted fact of democracy that campaigns should attempt to outdo one another in both the amount they collect in contributions and what they spend on campaigns. Previous research has explored the incumbent advantage in campaign finance, but many interesting factors remain. For instance, is fund-raising aided by factors such as the closeness of an election or a candidate’s tenure in the Legislative Yuan? In this study, we explain campaign contributions using data from prediction markets and television news reports to account for variations in campaign spending. Our results suggest that incumbent advantage does indeed affect contributions and that DPP candidates outperformed other candidates in campaign finance. We also find that previous electoral margins and television news coverage contribute significantly to campaign donations, and that election betting has an impact on spending. These findings suggest that a political party’s general campaign can influence the election race of an individual candidate, and that contributors tend to bet on likely winners, deepening the influence of the electoral system on competing political parties.
在競選過程中,候選人運用從個人、政黨、企業所募得的資金,試圖動員選民,這已經是民主的常態。過去的研究已經探討現任者在選舉花費的優勢,但是仍有許多因素仍待探討。例如,選舉的差距變大會減少候選人募到的經費嗎?候選人在立法院的年資會有助於募款嗎?本研究使用預測市場以及電視新聞的資料,解釋候選人申報的政治獻金以及選舉支出,結果顯示現任者優勢的確存在,而且民進黨候選人的收入與支出高於國民黨與其他候選人。本研究也發現,四年前的選舉結果以及候選人所屬政黨的總統候選人出現在電視新聞的時間,顯著影響候選人的募款,此次選舉中預測市場的價格則顯著影響候選人的支出。歸納這些發現可以得出政黨的選舉方式將會影響個別候選人的競選過程,而捐款可能集中在勝選機會大的候選人,而這可能擴大選舉制度對於政黨競爭的影響。