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鮑彤,中央研究院政治學研究所助研究員。
Partisan and Personal Voting in SNTV: A Mixed Logit Model (in Englsih)(單記非讓渡投票選舉制度下的個人與政黨取向:一個混合洛基模型) 文章下載
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There are reasons to believe that both partisan and personal factors should be important in the voting decision in SNTV elections, but this has not been rigorously tested in previous literature. This paper presents evidence that both types of factors have significant impacts, but partisan factors are much more powerful than personal factors. In general, partisan factors dominate the candidate vote choice, and personal factors serve primarily as tiebreakers among candidates from the same party. Moreover, the importance that voters place on personal factors varies in different partisan contexts, and there is generally a partisan logic to these varying weights.

Methodologically, this paper proposes mixed logit as an appropriate tool for modeling voting choices in SNTV and examines data from the five legislative elections in Taiwan from 1992 to 2004.

過去選舉制度的研究相信,在複數選區單記非讓渡投票選制 (SNTV)的選舉,政黨與個人因素對選民的投票抉擇「應該」相當重要。然而,現有選舉行為的文獻並未就此一信念予以嚴格檢驗。本文證據顯示,雖然這兩類因素都有顯著影響,「政黨」因素遠比「個人」因素更強而有力。概括來看,在選民的投票抉擇當中,政黨因素最為關鍵;在同黨候選人之間,個人因素可用以決勝負。再者,政黨因素與個人因素也有交互作用。不同的政黨脈絡下,選民對個人因素重要與否的判斷有所不同,表面上看似屬於候選人的個人投票,其實政黨因素的考量可能影響很大。

研究方法上,本文提出混合洛基模型 (mixed logit),作為SNTV投票抉擇模型的適當統計工具,所檢驗的民調資料係針對1992年至2004年台灣五次立委選舉的調查。
王鼎銘,成功大學政治學系暨政治經濟研究所助理教授。
The Impacts of Policy Issues on Voting Behavior in Taiwan: A Mixed Logit Approach (in English)(政策議題對台灣選舉行為之影響-混合型洛基分析之應用) 文章下載
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以政策爲依歸的理性投票行爲研究自Downs於1957年提出了著名的空間投票理論後,引起廣泛的討論。然而在台灣的選舉研究大多數集中於一些如省籍情節或李登輝情節等社會和心理變項上。本文的貢獻乃在提出一個整合的投票模型以便同時測試不同的投票理論。此外,一個可用於同時測量專屬個體型和依附選擇型自變項的不連續選擇模型—混合型洛基分析(Mixed Logit)將用於解析1996台灣總統大選選民投票行爲。實證的結果發現即使選民的政黨認同及對候選人特質的評價對選舉結果有相當程度的影響,省籍、收入和敎育程度等社會變項並不如過往研究般的重要。最重要的是政黨政策對選民的影響並非一成不變的以雙方政策之差距爲準,相對的Rabinowitz和MacDonald於1989所提的方向理論有時反而更能解釋選民的投票行爲模式。

Policy ideology does play an important role in influencing voting behavior since Downs proposed the famous spatial voting theory in 1957. The majority of the research in Taiwan however focuses much more on the sociological and psychological factors such as the ethnicity and ”Lee Tun-hui Complex”. This contribution of the study is to propose a jointed voting model to test different voting theories simultaneously. Moreover, Mixed Logit model that help to measure individual-specific and choice- specific independent variables is operated for several empirical tests on the 1996 Taiwan Presidential election. It is found that even if voter's party identification and evaluation on candidates' competent are significant, most of the sociological factors including the ethnicity, income, and education are not noteworthy in explaining voting decision as previous studies. Most importantly, voter's policy preference does play an important role although the policy distance between candidate and voter may not be the only way to affect the decision. It is found that the direction theory, proposed by Rabinowitz and MacDonald in 1989, is also significant.