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雷競旋,香港城市大學公共及社會行政學系副教授。
Political Party Supporters in Hong Kong Elections (in English)(香港選舉中的政黨支持者)
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The conventional approach of measuring party identification is applicable to political systems in which (1) the electoral competition is mainly between two major parties, (2) both parties are established and entrenched, (3) the electoral system is stable. To gauge party identification in a multi-party setting or in an early stage of election and party development, a modified and novel scheme is required. This article takes the vote choice as the starting point to gauge the sentiment of support among the Hong Kong electorate towards the political parties. An elector's vote choice is cross-checked by a number of other factors in order to ascertain the strength of the support. Through such a multiple step scheme, the approximate proportion of political party supporters among the Hong Kong electorate in the first two legislative elections held respectively in 1991 and 1995 can be estimated. Thus, the scheme can be a feasible one to substitute political party identification for the sake of gauging and measuring the relationship between voters and parties in the early stage of electoral development in a particular territory.

測量政黨認同的傳統方法,適用於如下的政治體制:(一)選舉角逐主要在兩個大政黨之間進行,(二)此兩大政黨俱為歷史悠久及穩定者,(三)有穩定的選舉制度。如要在多黨體制或選舉與政黨發展的初始階段測量政黨認同,則需運用較為不同的方法。本文以選民的投票抉擇為出發點,探測香港選民對政黨的支持,選民的投票抉擇並經由多個因素核實以確定其支持強度。運用此一多步驟方法,對於香港在1991 及1995年的首兩次立法選舉,可以估算出選民當中的政黨支持者數量。因此,此方法可替代傳統的方法,用於探討和測量選舉初始時期選民與政黨之間的關係。