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272 article(s) found.
Kah-yew Lim, Ph.D. Student, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Is the Central Government Performance a Candy or a Poison? Empirical Evidence of Taiwan's Legislative Yuan By-Election (in Chinese) Download
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This paper analyzes the extent to which performances of the central governments could shape Legislative Yuan by-election outcomes. Based on the retrospective voting theory and referendum voting theory, this research used the survey data of Taiwan's Elections and Democratization Studies (TEDS) to explore whether one's assessments of the central government's performances affect his/her choice in by-elections. There are some findings from this research: first, the result showed Miaoli's first district voters have differing voting behavior compared to voters in Taipei City's sixth district and Yunlin's second district. The assessment on central government performance has no significant influence on Miaoli's voters voting behavior; second, for the voters in Taipei City sixth district and Yunlin second district, the assessment of the central government performance have mixed effects due to the election context. As a result, we may conclude that the by-elections in Taipei City sixth district and Yunlin second district can be regarded as referenda on the central government, but the by-election in Miaoli's first district was different from the others.
Yi-ching Hsiao, Assistant Professor, Department of Public Administration, Tamkang University.
Chi Huang, Chair Professor and Senior Research Fellow, Department of Political Science and Election Study Center, National Chengchi University.
Government Performance and Voter Choice in Local Elections: The Case of 2009 Yunlin County and Township Magistrates Elections (in Chinese) Download
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Free and fair election is the core of democracy. Regular election in turn is the most important vehicle for the electorate to hold the ruling party and government accountable. This paper, based on theoretical arguments, elaborates the effects of government performance at different levels of elections. We argue that the higher the level of elections, the higher the level of government is held accountable by the electorate, while at the bottom local level elections, only the local government performance matters. In the county magistrate's election, the central government's performance should play a more important role on voter choice. By contrast, in the township magistrate's election, the local government's performance should have greater effects on voter choice. We test this proposition with the case of Yunlin in the 2009 county and township magistrates' elections with the survey data collected by the Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) project. We find that indeed voter choice in county magistrate's election is significantly affected by both central and county government's performance. However, neither central nor local government performance has significant effect on voter choice in township magistrates' election. This finding may reflect the fact that bottom-level local elections relies more on social networks and local factions than on government policy evaluation.
Cheng-hao Pao, Assistant Professor, Department of Global Political Economy, Tamkang University.
The Change and Continuity of Aboriginal Electoral Politics: An Analysis of the Aggregate Data of Indigenous Legislative Elections Results (1992-2008) (in Chinese) Download
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This research analyzes the aggregate data of indigenous legislative election results (1992-2008) to figure out the indigenous vote distribution and to discuss the reasons to cause the electoral stability and change by using the cross-level inference method. The research findings show that the KMT does not enjoy a stable support from Taiwan's indigenous electorate. A certain part of the KMTs electoral support is based on local politicians' personal votes. Once the alliance between the KMT and local politicians is broken, the KMT's electoral support will be immediately shrunk. In other words, political students who study Taiwan's aboriginal electoral politics should regard not only political parties but also local politicians as research units. In fact, in order to have profound understandings about aboriginal electoral politics, this research suggests a new perspective, by using local politician's personal votes as a breakthrough point, to do the researches.
Kuang-hui Chen, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chung Cheng University.
A Preliminary Analysis on the Impact of Marriage on Self-Identity (in Chinese) Download
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Given that ethnicity and identity are the principal factors of political cleavage in Taiwan, this article explores the following questions: Whether individuals Taiwanese/Chinese identities are influenced by their spouses' ethnic background? If so, whose identities are more likely to be shaped by the intensive interactions between husbands and wives in a marriage? Answers to these questions are helpful to researchers who are interested in assessing the effect of political socialization experiences during adulthood. This article analyzes pooled survey data from Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study and the main findings are: (1) Ethnic background affects the respondents' self-identities. (2) Respondents tend to marry within their ethnic group. (3) Respondents' self-identities are influenced by their spouses' ethnic background. (4) Although females' self-identities are generally affected by their spouses' ethnicity, the best-educated females' self-identities are less likely to be changed after getting married. (5) The best-educated males' self-identities are more likely to be shifted after getting married than their female counterparts.
Hsin-hao Huang, Assistant Professor, Department of Civic Education and Leadership, National Taiwan Normal University.
Constructing a Typology of Popular Attitudes to Democracy: An Analysis after the Second Party Alternation in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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A democracy cannot be considered as consolidated without its institutions being supported by a majority of populace. Based upon the suggested concepts of ”support for democracy” and ”satisfaction with democracy”, this paper proposes an exploratory topology to probe the popular attitudes toward democracy in Taiwan, with the special focus on the time point after the second party alternation in 2008. Furthermore, the author checks the validity of this democratic topology via the intrinsic and instrumental dispositions, which are the two main origins of people's democratic attitudes. The findings show that, firstly, slightly fewer less than half of Taiwanese approved of the democratic regime with the absolute manner, and also about half of them were satisfied with the current practice and performance of democracy after the second party alternation. The fact that only about 30 percent of citizens are categorized as ”democratic satisfaction” means that a proportion of Taiwanese still have doubts about democracy on either the emotional or practical dimensions. Secondly, the intrinsic and instrumental dispositions can separately increase the desirability and satisfaction of democracy, thereby explain different types of democratic attitudes in Taiwan. Moreover, with other variables remaining constant, the election result of 2008 did not lead to the systematic effect of ”election loser”; voters whose preferable candidate lost in the election did not become more likely to suspect the responsibility of the democratic system. Totally speaking, how to increase the popular support and confidence for democracy not only remains crucial to the process of democratic consolidation, but also should be regarded as a key issue for the future of democratic deepening in Taiwan
Hui-chung Yao, Associate Professor, Department of Human Resource and Public Relations, Da-Yeh University.
Rui-xiang Wang, Assistant Professor, Department of Human Resource and Public Relations, Da-Yeh University.
Hao-wei Kao, Master, Department of Human Resource and Public Relations, Da-Yeh University.
A Study on the Relationship of Voters' Party Inclinations and Candidates' Crisis Response Strategies (in Chinese) Download
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Most crisis communication literature did not distinguish the communicaion effect between different publics. This article explored the effects of response strategies of voters with different party identifications, using content analysis and survey. Cases were selected from the mayoral elections of Taipei and Kaohsiung, 2006. We found (1)the crisis communication strategies of political campaigns are different from strategies of business corporates, (2)no strategies can earn the agreements of adversary's supporter, (3)the candidates' communication effects on independent voters determines the margin of the campaigns, (4)independent voters' perceived evidences and disgust to crisis incidents affect the success of candidates' image repair.
Chen-yuan Tung, Professor, Graduate Institute of Development Studies, National Chengchi University.
Tzu-chuan Chou, Postdoctoral Fellow, Graduate Institute of Development Studies, National Chengchi University.
Jih-wen Lin, Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
Hsin-yi Lin, Associate Professor, Department of Economics, National Chengchi University.
Analysis on the Prediction Results of the 2009 Magistrate and Mayoral Election in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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Opinion poll has been the most widely used way to conduct election prediction. However, recently prediction market has become another widely applied prediction mechanism, attracting the literature to compare the accuracy of the two prediction methods. According to trading data of the Exchange of Future Events and opinion polls collected by this study, this paper analyzes the prediction results of the 2009 magistrate and mayoral election in Taiwan, and compares the prediction accuracies on this election between prediction markets and poll institutions. What this paper finds are: for prediction contracts on election winners, the weighted average prices of prediction markets are positive and statistically significant on the ratio of winning elections and can be regarded as the candidates' probability of winning elections. In addition, based upon five indicators of correctness rate, precision rate, hit rate, false alarm rate and Kuipers score, predictive power of prediction markets on election winners is obviously higher than that of poll institutions. For prediction on vote shares, predictive power of prediction markets is higher than that of poll institutions within 20 days before the election, and prediction accuracy of prediction markets is getting higher along with approaching the expiration of the contracts. Nevertheless, we also agree that opinion survey can help researchers conduct covariance analysis, which can be used together with prediction market to reinforce the findings of each other.
Wan-ying Yang, Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Kuan-chen Lee, Ph.D Candidate, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Exploring the Influence of Gender Power on National Identity under the Same Roof (1996-2008) (in Chinese) Download
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This study examines how the power relationship within households affects individuals' national identity. Comparing with the past studies which address the collective changes of national identity, this study instead focuses on individual households to explore the malleability of individual national identity changed by marriages. Family power studies have shown that the socioeconomic-resource and gender role differences have great impact upon the power distribution among husbands and wives, this study applies the 1996-2008 cross-sectional data to explore the effect of the gender power within households on individuals' national identity. The results of this investigation show that, individuals' national identity is affected by their spouses' ethnic groupings, and women are more likely than men to be affected by their spouses'. The models show that, on the male part, their identity on Taiwanese/Chinese and pro-independence/unification are significantly affected by their own ethnic backgrounds, party identification, and the year of investigation, these factors also affect women's national identities. However, in contrast to men, women's identity on Taiwanese/ Chinese and pro-independence/unification are greatly affected by their spouses' ethnicities. In terms of the Taiwanese/Chinese identity, women are directly affected by their husbands' ethnicities, regardless of their differences in socio-economic status or political engagements. Relatively, in terms of the pro-independence/unification identity, women are indirectly affected by their husbands' ethnic backgrounds caused by the educational gap. As the wives' education level gets lower, their pro-independence/unification stance is more likely to be affected by their husbands' ethnicities. In short, the gender asymmetries of which wives' identity affected by their husbands' ethnicities are not fixed, rather they are distributed differently across households and varied by identity dimensions.
Woan-yuh Jang, Professor, Graduate Institute of Finance, National Taiwan University of Science and Technology.
Kai-wen Chang, Underwriting Supervisor, Sino-Pac Securities.
Do Directorate Political Connections and/or Political Donations Affect Firm Value? (in Chinese) Download
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The research uses the hand-gathered data that details the political background of all directors on the boards of companies listed in the Taiwan Stock Exchange (TSE). The companies are divided into three groups: companies connected to the Pan-Blue Coalition, companies connected to the Pan-Green Coalition, and the others. This article looks at two different events. The first is the 2008 president election on March 22 incorporating the factor of political donations, and the second is the announcement of politically connected director appointment. The study examines the effects of political network linkages on firm value. The analysis shows that companies connected to the Pan-Blue Coalition exhibit a positive and significant cumulative abnormal return when the Pan-Blue Coalition wins the 2008 president election. Conversely, companies connected to the Pan- Green Coalition suffer a negative cumulative abnormal return. In addition, the companies which donate to both Pan-Blue and Pan-Green Coalitions experience a cumulative abnormal return significantly greater than those only to the Pan-Blue Coalition. This article also demonstrates that the stock market displays a positive response following the announcement of the appointment of directors connected to the Pan-Blue Coalition. However, there is no significant abnormal return on the stock market when news of directors connected to the Pan-Green Coalition entering the boards is announced. Furthermore, the difference between the two groups fails to be significant.
Shing-yuan Sheng, Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Stability and Change of Party Identification among Taiwanese Voters: A Panel Data Analysis (in Chinese) Download
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This research utilizes the 2004-2008 panel data to examine the stability and change of party identification among Taiwanese voters. Several findings are worth highlighting: First, individuals' present party identification is affected by previous party identification, as well as evaluations on the parties and political elites, and issue positions. This shows that party identification of Taiwanese voters is affected by both forces of stability and change. Second, the effect of the previous party identification on the present party identification is different across generations: it is the largest on the first generation, the second on the second generation, and the smallest on the third generation. Third, 61.3 percent of voters continue their party identification. For those who change their party identification, most of them are from a small party to a large party. Also noteworthy is when they change their party identification, they change according to the blue-green boundary. Therefore, I argue that the blue-green dimension, or the KMT-DPP dimension, based on the ethnic groups and independence-unification issue, is the target of party identification. This is based on experiences of political socialization when voters first entered into the political arena. Furthermore, this blue-green dimension is possibly reinforced by the new electoral system. Therefore, under the circumstance that the electoral system stabilizes and no new issue emerges, the party identification of Taiwanese voters helps to shape a two party system.