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272 article(s) found.
Tzu-ping Liu, Research Assistant, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
Chung-li Wu, Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
Shih-chan Dai, Research Assistant, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
Cross-Pressures, Opinion Expression, and Party Identification: Lessons of the 2008 Legislative Yuan Elections in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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This study examines whether people's interpersonal relationship and social environments are important resources, which affect individuals' opinion expressions. Different from the approaches such of ”socio-demographic factors” and ”political mobilization” in the existing literature on political participation, this study uses ”cross-pressures” as its theoretical framework, analyzing the influence posed by cross-pressures on persons' inclination to express their own political opinions in the 2008 Legislative Yuan elections. The cross-pressures might be especially salient when their political positions are different from those of their family members. We employ the 2008 Taiwan Election and Democratization Study (TEDS 2008) survey data, using ”cross-tabulation analyses” and ”multinomial logit models” to investigate the association between four-type respondents and political expressions. Note that the variable of ”party identification” is employed as the proxy for tapping the concept of political expression. The findings reveal that the variables of gender, age, ethnicity, Taiwanese/Chinese consciousness, unification/independence preference, cross-pressures, and four-type respondents are the significant factors associated with an individual’s expression of party identification, and most of them run in the expected directions. More importantly, some respondents refuse to express their real partisan preferences and therefore report themselves as ”independents” during face-to-face interviews when they are under social interactions with cross-pressures. The results confirm the major hypothesis of this research: individuals having homogeneous social interactions and under low-level cross-pressures are predisposed to talk about politics, while people in cross-pressures involving greater political disagreement are less likely to express their political preferences.
Alex C. H. Chang, Assistant Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
Party Identification, Negative Information, and Voting Choices: An Empirical Analysis of Municipal Mayoral Election in 2010 (in Chinese) Download
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In modern electoral campaign, especially that in most single member districts, negative campaigning has become a popular strategy for most candidates. They broadcast negative information about their opponents in order to discourage their supporters and hence garner, if any, electoral advantage and maximize chances of election. Despite its prevalence, scholars still have not achieved an agreement on whether negative campaign is determinant to voting behavior. Especially, while statistics shows that receiving negative information is negatively associated with voting decisions, we found that interviewees generally asserted that the messages did not affect their voting decisions at all. To solve the self-contradictory puzzle, following conventional wisdom, we assert that voters apply party identification as a shortcut to sift political information. Thus, they ignore the negative information about their preferred candidate but reinforce their detestation of the candidates they do not like. We further examine our theory by incorporating the TEDS2010C data with structural equation model. The analytical result supports our hypotheses and shows that voters' party identity and voting decision significantly influence the negative information they received. Nevertheless, the negative information does not have significant influence on voters' voting decisions.
Chih-sung Teng, Associate Professor, Graduate Institute of National Development, National Taiwan University.
Chin-en Wu, Assistant Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
I-jung Ko, MA, Graduate Institute of National Development, National Taiwan University.
What Causes the Invalid Votes? With a Concurrently Discussion of Spatial Analysis of Invalid Votes in Taiwan's Elections, 1992-2008 (in Chinese) Download
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The issue of invalid votes receives few scholarly attentions. Many consider invalid votes as the result of unintended behavior and do not explore the factors that may influence the incidence of invalid votes. We examine 37 elections of different levels between 1992 and 2008 in Taiwan by using panel data analysis. We find that the distribution of invalid votes are not random but are influenced by institutional and socioeconomic factors. Regarding institutional factors, the elections codes, the complexity of elections, the importance of elections, and years after the democratic transition are the main influencing factors. Years of education, the percentage of elders, population density, and percentage of indigenous citizens are the main socioeconomic variables that affect the incidence of invalid votes. The two strings of factors can explain about 34% of the variance in invalid votes. In addition to the pooled OLS model, we also employ spatial lag model and spatial error model. The two models show that the distribution of invalid votes exhibit positive spatial autocorrelation. In addition, some areas also exhibit spatial heterogeneity, which is likely to be attributed to the alienation of voters in the districts. We might need to pay special attention to these areas to enhance the quality of democracy.
Chiung-ju Huang, Associate Professor, Department of Public Finance, Feng Chia University.
Yuan-hong Ho, Professor, Department of Public Finance, Feng Chia University.
Tzu-yin Lin, MA, Department of Public Finance, Feng Chia University.
Elections, Checks and Balances and the Allocation of Public Expenditure: An Empirical Analysis of Local Government in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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Previous empirical work on political budget cycles focused solely on the dynamics of overall budget, and implicitly assumes the executive has full discretion over fiscal policy. This study goes beyond traditional political budget cycles models and shed light on the case study of 21 local governments in Taiwan over the 1984-2009 periods.

To explore how the level of checks and balances can explain the size of the political budget cycles, the political constraints index for the 21 local governments in Taiwan province is developed following the coding procedure of Henisz(2005). The law and order index from the International Country Risk Guide are used to measure compliance with the law. The proxy for effective checks and balances on executive discretionary power over the 1984 to 2009 period are established with the combination of the political constraints index and the law and order index. The impacts of elections, checks and balances on the allocation of local public expenditures over the period of 1984 to 2009 are then explored by using the generalized method of moments developed for dynamic models of the panel data of Taiwan's 21 local governments.

The empirical results show that the government would indeed adjust the budget expenditures contents to achieve their goals in the election period. Such as, the deletion of the general government budget expenditures towards the social welfare expenditure budget. By incorporating effective legislative checks and balances into the model, the effect of political budget cycles can indeed be moderated or counteracted. Regardless of whether the local government has discretion or not, it does not affect the checks and balances ability of the legislature.
Da-chi Liao, Director and Professor, Institute of Political Science, National Sun Yat-sen University.
Fu-ren Li, Director and Professor, Institute of Service Science, National Tsing Hua University.
Yu-ci Huang, MA, Institute of Information Management, Naional Tsing Hua University.
Zi-yu Liu, Ph.D Student, Institute of Political Science, National Sun Yat-sen University.
Cheng-xun Lee, Ph.D Student, Institute of Political Science, National Sun Yat-sen University.
The Establishment of Taiwanese Legislators' Campaign Promise Database (in Chinese) Download
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In Taiwan's legislative elections, candidates running for office are required to submit campaign promises to be published in the Electoral Bulletin. This research considers that campaign promises published in Electoral Bulletins are the official commitments of the candidates and should not be disregarded as insignificant and unworthy of research. Moreover, the connection between the candidates' campaign promises and their performances after being elected should be studied in order to monitor their ”accountability” to voters. It is our hope that more emphasis is placed on ”campaign promises” printed in Electoral Bulletins, which would help to create a positive influence on the creation of a democracy.

In order to achieve the above stated goal, this paper has established the ”Sixth and Seventh Legislative Campaign Promise Database” based on campaign promises by candidates during Taiwan's sixth and seventh term legislative elections. Hopefully this database would facilitate the research on issues related to the connection between campaign promises and the legislators' on-job performance after being elected.This paper will mainly cover the establishment process of this database, including the manual coding method and the latest information technology used for data mining, namely the multi-label classification method.

This paper also attempts to compare and contrast these two methods and hopes to bring in the most advanced information technology to conduct a certain level of automated classification for campaign promises printed in Electoral Bulletins in every election.
Ching-hsin Yu, Research Fellow, Election Study Center, National Chengchi University.
First and Nascent Experience: Citizen's Perception, Participation, and Evaluation of the New Legislative Electoral System in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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Taiwan has adopted a new mixed member system which carries significant differences from the long-implemented SNTV-MMD system for the election of legislators in 2008. Mainstream literature continues to discuss the electoral impacts on political parties and candidates by the new system while citizen's knowledge of the new system and its concomitant effects on citizen's behavior are less concerned. The purpose of this essay is to explore citizen's perceptions, participations and evaluations of this new system. Based on a 30-day rolling poll data, it firstly examines the distribution and change of citizen's knowledge of the new electoral system. It finds that citizen's knowledge of the new electoral system is not high. Also, citizen's knowledge is increased as election approaches when more campaign information is provided. It is followed by a discussion that citizen's age, education, media exposure, political interests, and party identification are closely associated with citizen's increase of knowledge. Then, by way of analyzing post election panel survey data, this essay makes clear that an increase of citizen's knowledge also contributes to citizen's intention to vote in election. However, citizen maintains a mixed assessment of the new electoral system that, compared with the SNTV-MMD system, the new electoral system is good for recruiting better candidates and the development of democracy but fears for causing social tensions. It also finds citizen's party identification plays a significant role in the assessment while citizen's knowledge of new system does not. In the discussion and conclusion section, it suggests a cautious perspective that citizen in Taiwan has only one experience of the new system. It is reasonable to argue that citizen's knowledge may increase as more elections are implemented under the new system. Meanwhile, based on the New Zealand experience and findings of this essay, more information of the new system, either from the government, mass media, or political parties, will contribute to citizen's knowledge of new system.
Yi-ching Hsiao, Assistant Professor, Department of Public Administration, Tamkang University.
People's Perception of the Party Lists in Taiwan's 2008 Legislative Election and It's Effect (in Chinese) Download
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The mixed-member majoritarian system was first adopted in the 2008 legislative election in Taiwan. In accordance with this electoral system, each voter has two ballots to cast at the same time. The first ballot is for the candidates in the single member district, and the second is for the party list, which determines the seats each party receives. Theoretically, voters' decision on the second ballot depends not only on his or her party identification but also on the quality of party list. Since the two ballots system was recently adopted in 2008, most people are not familiar with the mixed-member majoritarian system. Therefore, this article attempts to examine the voters' perception of the party list and their preference, and furthermore to assess whether their perception and preference would affect their voting choice on the second ballot. The empirical survey data of TEDS2008L is analyzed in this article to answer these questions. It is found that while most voters can neither recognize the names on the lists of the two major parties nor indicate their preference among the lists. However, voters are significantly more likely to vote for the party list they recognize or prefer. This result indicates that parties should make every endeavor to enhance the quality of the party list in order to receive more votes in this newly adopted electoral system in Taiwan.
Eric Chen-hua Yu, Assistant Research Fellow, Election Study Center; Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science,
National Chengchi University.
The Impact of President's Performance on Taiwan's Local Elections - Analyzing the 2009 Magistrate Elections (in Chinese) Download
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Taiwan's ruling party, Kuomintang (KMT), handed a loss to the opposition party, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), in the 2009 Magistrate Elections. The conventional wisdom suggests two competing arguments to interpret the election results-while some argued that the KMT's loss was mainly due to the lack of partisan mobilization within the KMT, some posited that it was because a significant proportion of voters changed their voting preferences from the KMT to the DPP between the 2008 national and 2009 local elections.In fact, both arguments share the same premise: there exists a linkage between the performance of the ruling party (in the central government) and its electoral prospect in local elections. Specifically, the performance of President Ma has a substantial impact on the 2009 local election. This study utilizes survey data to verify such premise. Our data analysis shows that a voter's assessments on President Ma's job performance as well as on general and personal economic conditions affect his/her voting intention. In other words, we found that the ”referendum voting model,” in which voters caste their votes in midterm elections on a basis of their evaluations of the ruling party, properly explains voting behavior in Taiwan's midterm elections such as the 2009 local elections.
Chiung-chu Lin, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Soochow University.
Change and Continuity: An Analysis of Taiwanese/Chinese Identity and Position on the Cross-Straight Relations (in Chinese) Download
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This paper aims to examine the test-retest reliability of two important political attitudes, i.e. Taiwanese/Chinese identity and issue of Unification/ Independence (UI issue), among the Taiwanese electorate by analyzing the 2004-2008 panel data from the Taiwan Election and Democratization Study. This paper further explores the socio-demographic factors that might affect the consistence of one's Taiwanese/Chinese identity and the position of the issue of Unification/Independence. This paper then examines the relationship between the two political attitudes.The findings suggest that one's Taiwanese/Chinese identity demonstrates higher stability than his/her position on the UI issue. People who identified themselves as Chinese changed to having a ”joint identity”. Those who hold a ”joint identity” have changed to identified themselves as Taiwanese. The factors that affect one's attitude consistency include education, political generation and China experience. Those with less education, the oldest generation and have been to China are more likely to change their attitudes. Moreover, findings from the statistical model show that one's Taiwanese/Chinese identity influences one's position on the UI issue.
Shu-mei Chuang, Master, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
Yung-tai Hung, Professor, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
A Study of Negative Identification against a Specific Party in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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According to The American Voter, party identification affects voters' attitudes, feelings, even the voting behavior towards political parties. In Taiwan, party identification indeed has fundamental effects on voters' voting behavior. But there is still something that can't be explained. This study found that negative identification against a specific party is also a crucial factor that affects voters' voting behavior. The negative attitude towards a specific party is a long-term, consistent attitude. And it is very hard to change.

The study employed methods including in-depth interviews, focus groups and telephone survey to investigate the issue. First, results from qualitative research indicated that three factors, namely, national identity, ethnic identity and party image are the roots of the voters' negative attitude toward a specific party. The study also developed a questionnaire to measure the negative attitudes toward a specific party of the voters in Taiwan; 46.3% of the survey respondents expressed that there is one or more than one parties they would have never voted for. We then combined the traditional party identification variable and the newly-developed ”which party that you will never vote for” variable into a new party identification indicator. Empirical studies using survey data showed that the new variable were good in both validity and reliability tests and was doing very well in explaining voters' voting behavior in Taiwan.