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272 article(s) found.
Ming-feng Kuo, Post-Doctoral Fellow, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
Ding-ming Wang, Professor, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
A Panel Study for Japanese Bicameral System under Koizumi's Governance: An Application of Hybrid Method of Fixed and Random Effect Models (in Chinese) Download
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The framework of legislative institution and electoral systems have played a significant role in modern democracies. Every Countries based on the differents of historical, political, and social backgrounds, that adopted different legislative and electoral systems that usually result in particular political consequences. For examples, the representation of public opinions, the policy-making process, the competition between different political camps, and most importantly the formation of party systems.

This study, by applying Japan as an example, tries to analyze the political and electoral influences made by its legislative framework and electoral system; especially the 2003 and 2004 Japanese Diet Elections under Junichiro Koizumi's governance. The importance of Japanese Diet relies not simply on the bicameral system regulated by its post-war Constitution, but also the various electoral systems for House of Councilors and House of Representatives. Because of the unique institutional establishment, the check and balance between two Houses has increased and become an importance issue in Japanese politics. With the assistance of individual panel data from Japanese Election Study (JES), and take advantage of hybrid method of fixed and random effect model, we observe this important institutional conflict empirically and effectively during the period of Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi. Although the results reveal the substantial vote-flows between the ruling and the opposition parties in the House of Representatives and Councilors elections, which support the institution effect of check and balance, we also find that Koisumi charisma makes a considerable influence to offset the vote-flows from the ruling party to the opposition. In addition, we also find the factor of party identification influence the voters' decisions not only exist between subjects, but also within subjects over time; especially support toward the main opposition party DPJ. Most importantly, the result also reveals that the opposite party may become full-fledged during these elections.
Chin-en Wu, Associate Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
Yi-tzu Lin, Ph. D. student, Department of Political Science, University of South Carolina.
Cross-Strait Economic Openness, Identity, and Vote Choice: An Analysis of the 2008 and 2012 Presidential Elections (in Chinese) Download
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This article examines across-strait trade openness and vote choices in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. We first demonstrate two trends about economic assessments in the 2008 and 2012 elections. First, more and more people consider the economic effect of economic openness as neutral. Next, respondents decouple their assessments in the aggregate level and family level. While a substantial percentage of voters still think that economic openness has been bringing about economic prosperity for Taiwan, it has not done so at the family level. As to the effect of economic assessment, we find that the traditional economic voting battery does not exert comparable effect on voting as economic openness. Next, the socio-tropic assessment of economic openness is relatively more important than the pocket-book assessment. More importantly, we demonstrate how political identities, party identification and unification-independence choice, shape the influence of economic assessment on voting decisions. In general, economic assessments exert greater effects on pan-blue and pro-unification voters, while exert smaller effects on pan-green and pro-independence voters. This pattern is mainly associated with the extent that incoming messages are congruent with voters' existing beliefs.
Wan-ying Yang, Professor, Department of Politic Science, National Chengchi University.
Pei-ting Lin, Post-doctoral Researcher, Election Study Center, National Chengchi University.
Do Women Transfer Their Votes to Tsai? The Change of Gender Gap from 2008 to 2012 Presidential Election (in Chinese) Download
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In 2008 presidential election, Taiwan for the first time appeared a significant gender gap in voting; in 2012 presidential election, the first female presidential candidate arose to challenge the incumbent. To compare the changes between these two elections, this study uses ”Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study (TEDS)” panel data (2008P-2012) to observe the stability/change and the patterns of gender gap among the same set of voters. The analysis shows that women voters are more likely than men to change their votes from the KMT candidate to the DPP candidate. The transferring pattern of women voters accounts for the shrink of the voting gender gap comparing to the last election. In terms of the explanation for the voting change, we compare three factors, the party identification, candidate evaluation and issue effect. All of these three factors affect voting decisions to different extent, but in explaining gender difference of the voting change, only the candidate factor is significant. Voting change is mainly due to the female voters with stable party identification, transferring their votes from the KMT to DPP candidate. Among those female voters, some of them are stable DPP supporters who voted for Ma in the 2008 election and returned to vote for DPP candidate Tsai, and still some are stable KMT supporters who cross their party line to vote for their preferred DPP candidate Tsai. Comparing these two presidential elections with panel data, we can conclude that men are more likely to stick to their party identification in casting their ballots, whereas women are more likely to be influenced by other factors besides party identification. And this time, the other factor is the candidate. For those female voters who give the DPP candidate higher evaluation, voting transfer is a natural result.
Chang-chih Lin, Adjunct Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science and Post-doctoral Researcher, Election
Study Center, National Chengchi University.
How Important Is the Identity of the Vice Presidential Candidate for Voters? An Analysis of the 2012 Presidential Election in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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This paper focuses on voters' assessment of the role of the vice president and the effect of voter preference for vice presidential candidate (VPC) on voting in the presidential election. Taking the 2012 presidential election in Taiwan as an example, the paper uses individual-level data for analysis. The survey results show differences between voters' assessment of the constitutional role of the vice president and their actual voting behavior. Over 30% of respondents who believe that the vice president plays an important constitutional role do not take into account the VPC when voting in the presidential election. Moreover, voters' assessment of the presidential and vice presidential candidate can be divided into nine categories. The relationship between these categories and voting choice in the election demonstrates the following two hypotheses. First, the presidential candidate (PC) is a more important factor than the VPC in the presidential election, and, second, the VPC still has an effect on voters. The data shows that the effect of the voters' evaluation/preference of VPC on their voting choice is nontrivial and significant. Finally, the binary logit model shows a similar result for influence of the VPC on voting choice and furthermore indicates that the gap between the evaluations to the presidential and vice presidential candidates of the two major parties is a more important factor on voter choice than the specific evaluation toward a single candidate. In the model, the influence of the VPC does not fall away when we take into account the PC and has differential effect on blue-camp and green-camp supporters.
Cheng-Hao Pao, Associate Professor, Department of Global Political Economy, Tamkang University.
Representative Behavior of Indigenous Legislator in Taiwan: A Content Analysis of the Floor Questions between 2002 and 2012 (in Chinese) Download
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This study offers a novel empirical account of the representative behavior of the indigenous legislators in the 2002 to 2012 Legislative Yuan. Based on behavioral data, the analysis seeks first to know whether the lack of descriptive representation leads to the harm of substantive representation or not, and then second to illustrate the change and continuity of the issues which indigenous legislators pay attention to. The research findings indicates that although dedicated indigenous seats are always occupied by Amis, Atayal, and Paiwan, the interests of other indigenous peoples do not be harmed. In other words, the current electoral system does not guarantee descriptive representation of all indigenous peoples but provide a substantive representation to them. Basically, the elected indigenous legislators regard themselves as representatives of all indigenous peoples. Furthermore, although the issues concerned by indigenous legislators may be influenced by constituency and party affiliation, they are still highly related to indigenous interests. Indigenous legislators in Taiwan do response to the needs of the represented.
Tzu-Chen Cheng, Assistant Professor, Department of Politics Science, Chinese Culture University.
The Norm of Japanese Political Funds and Its Limit: The Analysis of the Development and Meaning about Japanese "Political Funds Control Act" (in Chinese) Download
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In order to encourage citizens to participate in politics, Japan adopted the ”Political Funds Control Act” in 1948 to regulate political finance. Due to prevailing pork-barrel politics, the ”Political Funds Control Act” has been modified several times. However, it still fails to ameliorate the situation of growing political funds. As a result, this study attempts to examine the interactive relationship between institutions and actors. And provide empirical evidence for the effect of institutional change on regulation of political finance using data from the political fund financial report. This study finds that the more restrictive regulation of political funds contributes to increase, rather than decrease, of political finance. Furthermore, the modification of the ”Political Funds Control Act” also changes the way that enterprises and organizations use for political donations.
Chi Huang, Chair Professor, Department of Political Science and Senior Research Fellow, Election Study Center, National Chengchi University.
Chang-chih Lin, Adjunct Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Hung-chung Wang, Post-doctoral Researcher, Election Study Center, National Chengchi University.
Analysis of Straight- and Split-Ticket Voting in Three-in-One Election: The Case of 2010 Kaohsiung Metropolitan Elections (in Chinese) Download
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Three-in-one election held on November 27th 2010 is the first five metropolitan elections in the history of Taiwan's local elections. Voters in this election could cast three ballots for different political positions: mayor, city councilor, and head of li. This study focuses on the Kaohsiung city and analyzes voters' straight- and split-ticket voting in the 2010 three-in-one election.In general, the character of electoral competition is shaped by electoral systems and the level of election. Single-member district with plurality system is considered to contribute to a competition between two major parties, whereas minor parties are more likely to survive under the SNTVMMD system. In the 2010 Kaohsiung mayoral election, then DPP incumbent Kaohsiung County Magistrate Chiu-hsing Yang ran for mayoral election as an independent candidate and replaced the KMT candidate, Chao-shun Huang, as the major competitor of incumbent mayor, Chu Chen. Our study finds that indeed some pan-blue partisans voted for Yang strategically in the mayoral election. This finding to an extent confirms the rumor of ”dump Huang and save Yang” before the election.Meanwhile, most of those pan-blue partisans who voted Yang for mayor remained to support pan-blue candidates in the city councilor election, showing a split-ticket voting pattern. In contrast, pan-green partisans demonstrated a high degree of loyalty to the DPP mayoral candidate, Chu Chen, and the pan-green candidates in the city councilor elections.As for the lowest-level election of head of li, our study shows that there is no significant relationship between vote choice of head of li and that of mayor and city councilor. This finding indicates that the character of the election of head of li is quite different from that of mayor and councilor election.
Tsong-jyi Lin, Associate Professor, Department of Public Administration, Tamkang University.
Analyzing Anti-Party Sentiment in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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Popular dissatisfaction with two mainstream parties has been a significant phenomenon in Taiwan. By applying the concept of anti-party sentiment, this study attempts to explore the following questions: (1) what is the percentage of anti-party sentiment? (2) who are the citizens with anti-party sentiment? (3) what are political consequences led by antiparty sentiment? To measure anti-party sentiment, the author designs four variables concerning political corruption, election fairness, leadership, and representation. Totally 1,208 samples are collected from the telephone interview.There are several findings. First, most people are dissatisfied with the performances of political parties, except for leadership. Second, demographic characteristics for people with anti-party sentiment include young age, high education, white collar, and city inhabitant. Third, anti-party sentiment exerts negative effect on political participation and democratic satisfaction. On the contrary, anti-party sentiment doesn't show significant effect on party legitimacy and democratic support. Above findings imply that the case of Taiwan is similar with most western democracies. Although anti-party sentiment could be treatedas an important phenomenon in Taiwan, it might not jeopardize Taiwan democracy.
Da-chi Liao, Professor, Institute of Political Science, National Sun Yat-sen University.
Cheng-hsun Li, Ph. D. student, Institute of Political Science, National Sun Yat-sen University.
Bo-yu Chen, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, National Sun Yat-sen University.
The Effects of Electoral Rules upon Legislators' Campaign Promises and Legislative Performance: To Compare the District Legislators of Taiwan Legislative Yuan between Its Sixth Term and Seventh Term (in Chinese) Download
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This paper explores the impact of alterations to electoral systems on legislator campaign promises and to what extent legislators keep these promises in later legislative performance. We advance 2 hypotheses: 1. Legislators elected in single member plurality (SMP) system have a greater tendency to propose locally oriented campaign promises than those elected through proportional representation (PR), but will not be more likely to advance social welfare campaign promises; 2. Legislators chosen through SMP will put forth greater effort to actualize campaign promises in various legislative activities.This research performs a quasi-experimental comparison on Taiwan's Legislative Yuan. The 6th Legislative Yuan (2005-2008) utilized a single non-transferable vote system (SNTV), which was a hybrid system similar to PR, while the 7th Legislative Yuan elections were primarily an SMP hybrid two ballot system. We record data for the campaign promises district legislative candidates officially announced during the 6th and 7th term elections to explore the influence of electoral system alterations on national legislators' campaign promises and legislative activities aimed at realizing these promises.

Our study essentially verifies the two hypotheses. SMP leads legislators to advance larger numbers of locally oriented campaign promises, while there is no difference between SMP and PR with respect to social welfare campaign promises. SMP system also spurs district legislators to utilize official and observable legislative activities, such as legislative proposals and interim proposals, in adhering to campaign promises. With respect to these findings, we further explore responsiveness and accountability in the SMP and PR systems, as well as its impact on social welfare policy, in order to further reflect on the present trend toward greater respect for PR system in democratic constitutional design.
Nathan F. Batto, Assistant Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
Partisan and Personal Voting in SNTV: A Mixed Logit Model (in English) Download
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There are reasons to believe that both partisan and personal factors should be important in the voting decision in SNTV elections, but this has not been rigorously tested in previous literature. This paper presents evidence that both types of factors have significant impacts, but partisan factors are much more powerful than personal factors. In general, partisan factors dominate the candidate vote choice, and personal factors serve primarily as tiebreakers among candidates from the same party. Moreover, the importance that voters place on personal factors varies in different partisan contexts, and there is generally a partisan logic to these varying weights.

Methodologically, this paper proposes mixed logit as an appropriate tool for modeling voting choices in SNTV and examines data from the five legislative elections in Taiwan from 1992 to 2004.