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272 article(s) found.
Associate Professor, Department of Journalism, Chinese Culture University; Assistant Professor, Department of Information Management, Chung Yuan Christian University (Corresponding author)
Taiwan 2016: How Political Candidates’ Adoption of Facebook Fan Pages and Interaction with Supporters Relate to Election Outcomes Download
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The adoption of social media in political marketing has grown dramatically over the past ten years, as it creates two-way communication that stimulates and fosters candidates’ relationships with voters. However, can the count of “supporters” and “likes” recorded on the Facebook page of a candidate predict whether he/she will win the elections or not? In view of this, predicting an electoral outcome using “big” social media data is a new research topic that has emerged due to the exponential growth of social media. This study examines the extent to which political candidates’ use of Facebook fan pages and interaction with their supporters are related to the election outcomes (vote share and election success) of Taiwan’s 2016 legislator election campaign. Facebook data were acquired for all 354 candidates. The findings indicate: a candidate’s Facebook presence is related to his/her election outcomes. Positive correlations were also observed to exist between the numbers of supporters/likes candidates secured on their official fan pages and their popular vote share. Moreover, the “net-fans ratio” preliminary model, based on a candidate’s likes/supporters and excluding those repeated with respective opponents, has an explanatory power to forecast regional legislators’ election outcome with 81.5% accuracy of all the seats, and with 87.9% accuracy of the seats of 6 major municipalities. Hence, Facebook data could be a significant indicator of electoral success.
Ph. D., Department of Political Science, University of New Orleans;Associate Professor, Department of Public Affairs and Civil Education, National Changhua University of Education.
Governance Performance, Racial Factor, and the Mayor’s Approval Rating: The Case of New Orleans before and after Hurricane Katrina Download
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U.S. political scientists have long been attracted to the issue of how citizens evaluate their chief executive, both in central and local governments. Some scholars claim that people’s perception of the quality of their life makes a huge impact on their approval of the chief executive while researchers of other schools indicate the racial factor is the one playing the most important role in it.
This research compares a racial model to a performance model in
explaining the approval of the mayor of New Orleans before and after Hurricane Katrina, analyzing the dynamics of job approval of the black mayor, Ray Nagin. By analyzing the 2004, 2006 and 2007 Quality of Life study survey data offered by the Survey Research Center, University of New Orleans, we concluded the findings suggest that the mayoral approval rating is affected by both the factor of race and governance performance.
However, the racial model makes an even greater impact on the case of Mayor Nagin than performance model does. The dramatic change of Mayor Nagin’s racial support base before and after Hurricane Katrina demonstrates that race is a crucial factor in influencing New Orleans residences’ approval of their mayor.
Distinguished Research Fellow, Election Study Center and Taiwan Institute for Governance and Communication Research; Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University
Political Emotions and the 2016 Presidential Election in Taiwan Download
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This study will examine how emotions might affect people’s choice of vote. I will employ the 2016 Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS 2016) to see how voters’ emotions toward major presidential candidates affect their vote choices. Previous research argues that some positive emotions, such as hope and pride, and some negative emotions, such as anxiety and fear, might play critical roles in shaping citizens’ opinions. For an open-seat presidential election, looking forward and reasoning back, voters employ hopeful and fearful emotions to make their voting decisions. As expected, voters with a fearful feeling toward Tsai Ing-wen are less likely to support her. We also find that those who are angry with Chu Li-luan tend not to vote for him. Emotions shed some light on our understanding of voting behavior in Taiwan.
M.A., Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University; Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, and Research Fellow of Election Study Center,
Taiwan Institute for Governance and Communication Research, National Chengchi University.
The Effects of Electoral Competition and Information on Voter Turnout: The Case of the Local Council Election in Taiwan, 2005-2014 Download
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This article examines the effects of electoral competition on voter turnout conditional on the number of co-partisan candidates and incumbent reelection rates. Utilizing the advantages of SNTV-MMD systems such as the variations in the number of co-partisan candidates and incumbent reelection rates across districts, we conduct a data analysis of 486 districts of local councilors in Taiwan from 2005 to 2014, which are time-series crosssectional data. We analyze the data by employing multilevel beta regression models and the results show that, when the number of co-partisan candidates or incumbent reelection rates are relatively high, strong electoral competition significantly fosters voter turnout. The results have important implications for the effects of SNTV-MMD systems on voter turnout.
Professor of Department of Political Science, Senior Research Fellow of Election Study Center, and Director of the Taiwan Institute for Governance and Communication Research (TIGCR), National Chengchi University
Testing Partisan Effects on Economic Perceptions: A Panel Design Approach (in English) Download
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The economic voting model has been established as a paradigm for studying electoral accountability based on past economic performances and future prospects. However, objective economic conditions may be a valence issue, and subjective evaluations of the national economy may still be positional. Recent “revisionist” commentators argue that economic voting is “endogenous” in the sense that partisanship strongly affects, if not distorts, voters’ perceptions of macroeconomic performance. Different responses have been elicited to this “partisan bias” claim, but few directly address the causal effect of partisanship on economic perceptions.
This study examined two competing theories of economic voting through investigating the partisan effects on sociotropic economic perceptions. By designing a narrow-window panel telephone survey conducted before and after the January 2016 presidential election in Taiwan, I constructed a two-way fixed effects (FE) model to test the existence of partisan bias. The estimates provided robust evidence of partisan effects on retrospective and prospective economic assessments. In other words, government party supporters evaluated both past and future economic performance favorably during the pre-election period but became pessimistic after their preferred party lost the election. By contrast, opposition party supporters discredited past economic performances during the government party’s rule and expressed optimistic expectations regarding future economic performances after their preferred party won the election. However, the theoretical and methodological conclusions reached in this study extend beyond the single case of Taiwan’s 2016 presidential election.
Associate Professor, Department of Public Administration and Management, Chinese Culture University.
;Professor, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
The Combination of Electoral System and Constitutional System: A Cross-Country Study of Semi-Presidential Democracies (in Chinese) Download
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With an analytical framework comprised of variables such as
parliamentary electoral system, political party system in the parliament,constitutional system (semi-presidentialism) and government type, this paper explores the differences among the constitutional operations from different combinations of the semi-presidentialism subtype (premier presidentialism and president parliamentarism) and the parliamentary electoral system (plurality with single-member-district system, proportional representation system, mixed-member proportional system and mixed-member majoritarian system) in the democracies all over the world. As far as semi-presidentialism is concerned, it is found that the overall constitutional operation under premier presidentialism, no matter which parliamentary electoral system is adopted, goes better than that under president parliamentarism. This finding can be another supportive reference for the perspective which believes premier presidentialism is better than president parliamentarism.Furthermore, the constitutional operation under the combination of president parliamentarism and plurality with a single-member-district
system (or mixed-member majoritarian system) is sometimes proceeds more smoothly than that under the combination of president parliamentarism and proportional representation system (or mixed-member proportional system),but sometimes it does not, and even becomes more obstructed. This shows the dilemma of how to choose a suitable parliamentary electoral system under president parliamentarism. Besides, this paper also observes the overall tendency of semi-presidential democracies’ choices for the presidential electoral system, and points out two common misconceptions. The first is the belief that whether the president has great constitutional powers or not is related to the presidential electoral system, and the second is the belief that the president elected via a plurality system has less democratic legitimacy than the president elected via a majority system. These two perspectives do not correspond to actual experiences, and should be clarified.
Assistant Professor, Department of International Business, Tamkang University;Professor, Department of Public Policy and Management, Shin Hsin University.
Effects of Survey Questionnaire Design: A Random Experiment in Measuring Political Knowledge as an Example (in Chinese) Download
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A survey is designed to explore the participants’ opinions, attitudes and actions towards certain topics. The amount of information possessed by participants is not the only factor that influences their willingness to participate; question types and options design also influence participants’ responses. In reality, given cost constraints and questionnaire length, it is not feasible to provide a multiple survey design for a single concept, or to verify participants' response mode under different survey designs. This study used an experimental design to measure political knowledge from Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) as an example, based on (1) an “open-ended vs. close-ended” question design; (2) whether it provides “non-response” as an option, to design four different types of surveys. The study uses a posttest-only control group design with university students as participants. We randomly released the questionnaires to participants and had 1,110 valid questionnaires.
The study found that question type and non-response design affects the participant response mode; a close-ended questionnaire design does increase the correct response ratio from participants, but it also produces a higher proportion of incorrect answers than an open-ended questionnaire. An openended
questionnaire design does not have options as reference, and so it could lower the willingness of participants to take part in the survey, and it therefore resulted in a higher non-response ratio. From the composite design of question type and non-response option, we were able to precisely estimate types of participants as in Mondak (1999), but the combinations of different types of participants vary significantly as results from the level of difficulties in a questionnaire designed to measure political knowledge.
Ph. D. Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University
Cognitive Madisonianism and Split-Ticket Voting in Taiwan: A Generalized Structural Equation Modeling Approach (in Chinese) Download
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Cognitive madisoniansim is crucial in political situations. It is not only an important value of democratic societies, but also a factor in explaining split-ticket voting. With the increase of minor parties and candidates, the media believe that Taiwan’s 2016 general elections have shown the most fierce split-ticket voting. It is worth mentioning that we shall not ignore the
issue of endogeneity caused by partisanship when discussing the relationship between cognitive madisoniansim and split-ticket voting. Based on the panel data of TEDS2016, this study aims to recategorize the cognitive madisoniansim of the respondents and resolve the issue of endogeneity by applying a generalized structural equation model (GSEM). By doing so, we aim to examine the relationship between cognitive madisoniansim and splitticket
The findings show that the public’s cognitive madisoniansim was
indeed affected by party preference. DPP supporters have tended to support cognitive madisoniansim in the past. However, they stopped supporting it once the DDP took over the government. The KMT showed the opposite situation. They had been against cognitive madisoniansim in the past. When they began losing elections, they started to support it. Regarding voting decisions, cognitive madsoniansim has positive effects on people’s decisions about straight-ticket voting or split-ticket voting. Nevertheless, most voters who cast straight-ticket voting for the DPP are those who stopped supporting or constantly supported cognitive madisoniansim. These two groups of voters
both prefer the DDP. This result indicates that the effect of voters’ cognitive madisoniansim on their voting behaviors still reflects their party preference.The above-mentioned issues present the endogeneity issue derived by explaining the split-ticket voting behaviors by cognitive madisoniansim and
the inevitability of GSEM methods. We suggest that researchers not ignore the effect of party preference as they examine the relationship between cognitive madisoniansim and split-ticket voting.
Research Fellow of Election Study Center and Professor of Graduate Institute of East Asian Studies,Taiwan Institute for Governance and Communication Research, National Chengchi University.
Electoral Competition, Incumbency, News Coverage, and Prediction Market Price: A Preliminary Study of Campaign Contributions and Spending in Taiwan’s 2016 Legislative Elections (in English) Download
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In a political campaign, candidates attempt to mobilize voters by using contributions from individuals, corporations, and political parties. It is an accepted fact of democracy that campaigns should attempt to outdo one another in both the amount they collect in contributions and what they spend on campaigns. Previous research has explored the incumbent advantage in campaign finance, but many interesting factors remain. For instance, is fund-raising aided by factors such as the closeness of an election or a candidate’s tenure in the Legislative Yuan? In this study, we explain campaign contributions using data from prediction markets and television news reports to account for variations in campaign spending. Our results suggest that incumbent advantage does indeed affect contributions and that DPP candidates outperformed other candidates in campaign finance. We also find that previous electoral margins and television news coverage contribute significantly to campaign donations, and that election betting has an impact on spending. These findings suggest that a political party’s general campaign can influence the election race of an individual candidate, and that contributors tend to bet on likely winners, deepening the influence of the electoral system on competing political parties.
Yi-ching Hsiao, Associate Professor, Department of Public Administration, Tamkang University.
Change in Voters’ Candidate Evaluation during a Political Campaign: A Case Study of the 2012 Presidential Election in Taiwan Download
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The political context to which the electorate is exposed is filled with a variety of political information and becomes more and more competitive during political campaigns. This seems to mean that a given campaign facilitates the electorate to create for itself clearer and more drastic political preference based on party identi.cation up to voting day. The author utilizes the pre-election survey data from rolling cross-sectional telephone interviews during the 2012 Taiwan’s presidential election to detect the influence of party identification on candidate evaluation during the political campaign. It was found that the electorate had a signi.cantly clear preference between the main candidates up to voting day, especially for the more involved voters. Furthermore, the correlations between voters’ party identification and its political attitudes including candidate evaluation and government performance become increasingly tighter as voting day approaches. In conclusion, this study proves the reinforcement of the party identification effect during political campaigns and suggests that it would be worthy to investigate it in a different political context in the future.