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19 article(s) found.
Karl Ho, Clinical Associate Professor, School of Economic, Policy and Political Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas.
Cal Clark, Emeritus Professor, Department of Political Science, Auburn University.
Alexander C. Tan, Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Canterbury (NZ), and Chair Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Politicized to Mobilize? A Longitudinal Study of First-Time Voters’ Voting Intentions in Taiwan, 2004-2016 Download
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Much has been made about the “coming of age” of many Taiwanese young and new voters as an important factor contributing to the gratifying electoral result of the DPP and its pan-Green allies. The Taiwanese case, then, may be considered an aberration as the increased political activism among the younger Taiwanese voters stands in some contrast to the supposed apathy of their counterparts in the Western world. Indeed, this particular generation of young Taiwanese voters may have been “politicized” so much so that they are also easily “mobilized.” In this paper, we examine whether Taiwanese new voters are indeed politicized and whether their politicization translates to voting intentions. Using longitudinal TEDS surveys to detect common patterns of first-time voters’ voting behavior, preliminary results from our multivariate analysis indicate that first-time voters are not different in likelihood of participating in voting compared to other voters. The subtle difference, however, resides on the viable options with which these young cohorts can identify. This can be part of the reason they are more supportive of the new parties than merely the traditional parties.
Guo-chen Wang, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
Chung-li Wu, Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica. (corresponding author)
Impact of Electoral Reforms on Stability and Change in Voting Behavior: Elections to the Legislative Yuan, 1998-2012 (in Chinese) Download
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This study uses the method of two-stage least squares of dynamic panel data models to examine the variables closely related to electoral stability and change in Taiwan, especially focusing on the impact of electoral reform of the Legislative Yuan in 2008 on voting behavior. To account for causal effects, the analysis includes 1,820 observations consisted of the 364 township and village-level units of five legislative elections from 1998 to 2012. The data sources come from the archive of election outcomes officially released by the Central Election Commission, and the statistical yearbooks published by county and city governments. The findings reveal that the variables of electoral reforms, types of electoral system, gender ratio, the level of educational attainment, and proportion of civil servants present statistically significant associations with the index of vote volatility.In addition, the factors of macroeconomic conditions, voting patterns, and geographical contexts emerge as statistically significant and in the anticipated directions. The empirical results demonstrate the Duverger’s law and also the self-fulfilling prophecy; i.e., the reforms of electoral system exert a profound effect of the stability and change of voting behavior. There are at least three academic implications that can be drawn from the outcome of this study. First, this study verifies the relationship between electoral system, party system, and electoral stability and change. Second, it empirically measures the vote volatility index which might be valuable for campaign strategies. Last, different from the qualitative and limited dependent variable models in the previous studies of political participation, this study takes advantage of a dynamic panel data model to assess the impact of electoral reforms on stability and change in voting behavior. Developing an electoral model that is both concise and accurate awaits future research.
Kah-yew Lim, Ph.D. Student, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Is the Central Government Performance a Candy or a Poison? Empirical Evidence of Taiwan's Legislative Yuan By-Election (in Chinese) Download
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This paper analyzes the extent to which performances of the central governments could shape Legislative Yuan by-election outcomes. Based on the retrospective voting theory and referendum voting theory, this research used the survey data of Taiwan's Elections and Democratization Studies (TEDS) to explore whether one's assessments of the central government's performances affect his/her choice in by-elections. There are some findings from this research: first, the result showed Miaoli's first district voters have differing voting behavior compared to voters in Taipei City's sixth district and Yunlin's second district. The assessment on central government performance has no significant influence on Miaoli's voters voting behavior; second, for the voters in Taipei City sixth district and Yunlin second district, the assessment of the central government performance have mixed effects due to the election context. As a result, we may conclude that the by-elections in Taipei City sixth district and Yunlin second district can be regarded as referenda on the central government, but the by-election in Miaoli's first district was different from the others.
Su-feng Cheng, Associate Research Fellow, Election Study Center, National Chengchi University.
Ethnicity, Identity, and Vote Choice in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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Ethnic and identity problems are important issues in modern Taiwanese politics. This paper examines Taiwanese identity from the aspect of ethnic and identity theory. The author develops a ”Taiwanese consciousness” index to explore the effect of identity in the past four presidential elections. The results show that Taiwanese consciousness has increased year by year, with more than half (54.7%) of Taiwan voters now classified into the high level of Taiwanese consciousness. The data also show that people with different degrees of Taiwanese consciousness vote differently and are increasingly polarized around identity. People with high-level Taiwanese consciousness tend to vote for pan-green candidates, while people with lowlevel Taiwanese consciousness tend to vote for pan-blue candidates. The data also indicate that the support bases of different parties are quite different. Votes for pan-green candidates mostly come from people with high-level Taiwanese consciousness, and this fraction has steadily increased; at the same time, support for pan-blue candidates has fallen significantly among this group. The analysis shows that partisan identification performs better than the ”Taiwanese consciousness” index at predicting vote choice, but the ”Taiwanese consciousness” index still has additional explanatory power. This paper also finds that the effect of ”sengi” (voters' provincial background) is not significant in the four presidential elections after controlling for other variables. This result suggests that the identity issue in Taiwan is now more an expression of ideological differences than ethnic ones.
Shun-Chuan Chang, Ph. D Candidate of Graduate Institute of Business and Management, National Chiao Tung University.
Wen-Jong Juang, Assistant Professor of Department of Public Policy and Managemet, Shih Hsin University.
Change in Voting Behaviour: Applying an Election Forecasting Model of Probability Distributions to Modify the Accuracy of Poll Outcomes (in Chinese) Download
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Due to undervotes, misvotes, or switchvotes bias, many polling data users felt frustrated in using the past polling outcome to forecast the new election. It is commonplace for voters to note an early frontrunner in polls will be doomed to fall in the real election outcome. A beta-binominal distribution is suggested to model the accuracy of early poll outcome which strategically influences the polling data users such as political parties, candidates, and mass media in implementing the election campaign. We demonstrate the advantages of probabilistic distribution and Bayesian reasoning, and how to estimate the parameters from past data, in modifying the accuracy of prior poll outcomes. In comparison with the traditional frequency approach, beta-binominal mixture distribution imposes a statistical-adjusting framework with ability to proportionate a coherent mechanism that synthesizes the performances of prior votes. The empirical data sets include the 2004 US presidential election in Atlas Web and TVBS polls in 2006 Kaohsiung mayor election and 2008 presidential election in Taiwan. This paper describes the general fitting of beta-binomial distribution on both datasets and discusses fruitful avenues for future research.
Teh-fu Huang, Distinguished Professor of the Center for General Education, Hungkuang University, and adjunct
professor of the Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Jin-lin Huang, Ph.D. candidate of the Graduate School of Political Science, Chinese Culture University, and instructor of the Graduate School of Science and Technology Law, National Yunlin University of Science and Technology.
Retrospective Voting or Issue Voting: A Comparative Study of 2005 Magistrate Elections of Taipei and Kaohsiung Counties (in Chinese) Download
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The subjects of retrospective voting and issue voting have recently become the major focuses in the study of voting behavior. It is quite appropriate to investigate the models of retrospective voting and issue voting for the 2005 elections in Taiwan. Except for the emphasis on the factors of candidates and political parties in the traditional analysis of voting behavior, this study tries to explore the influence of retrospective voting and issue voting on the results of the 2005 Magistrate Elections of Taipei and Kaohsiung Counties. By conducting empirical analysis, we have had some important findings as follow. First of all, both retrospective voting and issue voting are not the important factors in this given elections. Secondly, the factors of political parties and candidates are critical forces in influencing the outcome of the elections. Thirdly, the influence of the variable of political parties is powerful than the variable of candidates in the elections. Finally, the factors of ”Ma Ying-chiu phenomenon” and ”Chen Che-nan Scandal” are not as important as we expected intuitively.
Jinn-guey Lay, Associate Professor, Department of Geography, National Taiwan University.
Ko-hua Yap, Doctoral Student, Department of Geography, National Taiwan University. Corresponding Author.
Chy-chang Chang, Postgraduate, Department of Geography, National Taiwan University.
Spatial Perspectives and Analysis on Voting Behavior-A Case Study of the 2004 Taiwan Presidential Election (in Chinese) Download
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Spatial perspectives were seldom applied on the study of voting behavior in Taiwan in the past. However, the regional differentiation of voting behavior had been generally attended. Moreover, it would certainly dominate the division of Single-Member Districts and the eventual outcome. The authors attempt to explore spatial issues in electoral studies in this article. First, by defining spatial effects as spatial heterogeneity and spatial dependency, it could be then revealed how it influenced voting behavior. Secondly, indicators of spatial autocorrelation and the spatial regression model are introduced to explore and examine spatial effects. In the later half of the article, the 2004 Taiwan presidential election is taken as an empirical example to support three hypotheses: 1) similar voting are spatially clustered, in other words, voting are similar among neighboring communities; 2) residuals in the classical regression model exhibited regional differentiation that reveals spatial heterogeneity; 3) contiguous voters can still be affected even the social factors such as age, education, industry, income and ethnicity have been controlled (a revelation of the dominance of spatial dependence). The authors thus conclude that it shall always be taken into consideration regarding where the voters live.
Emile c. J. Sheng, Associate Professor Department of Political Science Soochow University.
Media, Opinion Polls and Issues - A Study of the Changes and Stability of Public Opinion during Campaign (in Chinese) Download
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This Study discusses the differences between journalists and political scientists while observing and predicting elections, and examines whether there are discrepancies between the media's schema and the public's interest during campaign. Overall speaking, political scientists are able to predict or explain voting behavior months before the election, using demographic variables such as partisanship, unification/independence stance, ethnic identity, gender, and age with considerable stability and accuracy (Lewis-Beck and Rice, 1992; Rosenstone, 1983). However, from the perspective of media report, candidates' support ratings rise and fall along with campaign strategies and news events, public opinion seems to be variable and difficult to predict. Therefore, this article would like to first provide a plausible explanation to the above dilemma. Subsequently, the author would like to examine the media focus during campaign to see if their coverage reflects the issues people deem important. Empirical data shows that the media operates on its own logic, and there is a considerable gap between media campaign coverage and the issues people care most about.
Lu-huei Chen, Assistant Research Fellow, Election Study Center, National Chengchi Uni­versity, Taiwan.
Political Trust and Voting Behavior in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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In this paper, we employ longitudinal data to explore the change and continuity of political trust among the electorate in Taiwan. After the 2000 presidential election, whether the distribution of political trust will follow the rotation of ruling power is our research interest. We also would like to explore which factors affect people's political trust, and how political trust might affect people's voting behavior. By employing 1992, 1995, 1998, and 2001 face-to face interviews after legislative elections, we are able to explore the change and continuity of people's political trust in Taiwan.

From our findings, we showed that the distribution of people's political trust declined during 1992 and 1998. However, as the 2001 survey data showed, people's political trust rebounded after the 2000 presidential election. Among factors affected people's political trust, people's partisan preference toward the KMT, voters among the first generation, people with elementary school education were more likely to have higher level of political trust between 1992 and 1998. However, people with the DPP or the NP partisan preference were more likely to have lower level of political trust. After the 2000 presidential election, people with the DPP partisan preference changed their level of political trust, and became more likely to trust the ruling authorities. We also demonstrated that people with higher level of political trust were more likely to support the ruling party in the legislative elections.
Shing-Yuan Sheng, Associate Professor, Dept. of Political Science,National Chengchi University.
The Issue Taiwan Independence vs. Unification with the Mainland and Voting Behavior in Taiwan: An Analysis in the 1990s (in Chinese) Download
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The purpose of this research is to examine how the issue Taiwan independence versus unification with the Mainland (hereinafter the TI-UM issue) affects Taiwan's politics through elections in the 1990s. To achieve this purpose, this article deals with three major issues. The first is to show how the TI-UM issue emerges and evolves in Taiwan's political arena. The second is to show how voters' position on the TI-UM issue affects their voting behavior, and how these effects differ across different elections. The third is to show what the determinants are and how the determinants affect voters' position on the TI-UM issue. This research focuses on five elections across different periods of time. They are gubernatorial and mayoral elections in 1994, legislator's elections in 1995 and 1998, and presidential elections in 1996 and 2000. The data used in this research are the post-election face-to-face interviews conducted by the Election Study Center in National Chengchi University.