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4 article(s) found.
Associate Professor, Center of Holistic Education, Mackay Medical College; Undergraduate student, Mackay Medical College; Professor, Department of Public Policy and Management, Shih Hsin University. (corresponding author)
Estimating the Sincerity of Taiwan Voters: A Model Building Process and Empirical Analysis Download
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Along with the democratic development of Taiwanese politics and the diversification of information channels, voters now have access to abundant information prior to elections. Owing to this, the final decision of some voters might be swayed by changes in public opinion polls or by the collective will of groups of people. The actual vote of these citizens may not be what they originally preferred, which cannot be characterized as sincere voting behavior. In the investigation of different types of non-sincere voting behavior, strategic voting is undoubtedly a major research issue among scholars of election studies delving into voter psychology. Strategic voting primarily refers to voters who decide to cast their votes for candidates with better prospects of winning so as to avoid “wasting” their vote. Past overseas literature has confirmed that whether in single-member districts or in proportional representation or multi-member districts, strategic voting has been observed among voters. As for academia in Taiwan, increasing effort has been made in recent years to study strategic voting that may take place in domestic elections, and the definition and measurement of related concepts, such as the effect of split-ticket and party voting. Most studies, however, are confined to observing the results of split-ticket voting, from which they surmise the possibility of strategic voting. In fact, the actual motivation for strategic voting may be very diverse, but the definition of sincere voting is relatively clear and uncontroversial.
Instead, this study attempts to base itself mainly on post election panel records provided by Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS), together with an integrated consideration of a pre- and post-election survey and a comparison of election outcomes. With Taiwan’s 2012 presidential cum-parliamentary elections as the source of empirical evidence, this study adopts counterfactual reasoning and literature on the random utility model, applying them to revise the survey results of the original poll data so as to estimate a reasonable proportion of actual sincere voting. Furthermore, it sums up important characteristics of sincere voters who had different vote choices and demonstrated the subtle differences between split-ticket voting, sincere voting and strategic voting. Finally, the study discusses the various statistical differences between these three voting behaviors.
Sheng-Mao Hsu, Ph. D Student, Department of Political Science, National Cheng-Chi University.
Ticket Splitting: The 1998 Taipei City Mayoral Election (in Chinese) Download
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Split ticket voting by New Party identifiers and Mainlanders had a crucial influence on the outcome of the 1998 Taipei City mayoral election. Large numbers of voters who identified themselves as New Party support­ers voted for the KMT mayoral candidate. However, in the concurrent City Council elections, they voted for New Party candidates. This sur­prising result is worth researching.

To analyze split ticket voting behavior, we consider six different logit models. After controlling basic demographic variables, including sex, age, education, and ethnic background, it is possible to discover what in­fluences split ticket voting. First, weakening party identification can in­duce a dealignment process. This, in turn, gives rise to split ticket voting. In the data, the intensity of party identification has an obvious ef­fect on split ticket voting. However, there has been no dealignment. Thus, weakening party identification is not the main reason for split tick­et voting. The second factor is ethnic background. Mainlanders, especial­ly young and middle aged voters, are more likely to split their tickets. Third, the related questions of unification or independence and Taiwanese or Chinese identification also have influence. The effect of the unification/independence position is not significant, but the respondents ' ethnic identity is. A fourth finding is that there is no significant coattail effect influencing split ticket voting. Fifth, many voters wish to balance the parties against each other, and so they split their votes. Sixth, strategic voting by New Party supporters was very important. New Party supporters were very opposed to Chen Shui-bian, and the New Party nominee did not have much chance of winning. As a result, many split their votes, voting strategically for the KMT mayoral candidate.

After examining the six models, we find that the most important fac­tors influencing split ticket voting are ethnic background and strategic voting by New Party supporters. These two factors are intimately con­nected, of course .
Yi-Ming Wu, Master, Department of Political Science, National Chung Cheng University.
Split-Ticket Voting in 1998 Taipei Mayoral and City Council Elections (in Chinese) Download
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Voting tendencies has been the focus of political field.Due to the limitations of the secretive voting system,the only way to learn each individual's voting preferences is to take polls.However,the reliability of the poll results is questionable.One thing that we can be sure of is that the voting results reflect every citizen's decision.It would be a risk of ecological fallacy if one hypothesizes the voting attitude based on the voting result. Based on the voting result in the Taipei election of 1998,first of all,this thesis gives an analysis of the phenomenon of split-ticket voting between political parties in City Mayor and City congress. Applying King's EI model analyzes how citizens chose their desired candidates among the three political parties.It also experimentally applies the statistics methods to lower the risk of ecological fallacy.So it turns out that as expected,the supporters of the New Party adapt split-ticket voting by voting KMT's candidate Mao Ying-jo. The rate of split-ticket voting reaches 98.29%.In addition,split-ticket voting also happens to the supporters of KMT's congress.The voters in split-ticket voting vote for DPP's City Mayor candidate Chen Shuei-Bien. The split-ticket voting rate registers 48.28%.
The Political Consequences of Electoral System: SNTV in Taiwan (in Chinese)
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Most political scientists agree that electoral system has a great, while non obvious, impact on party politics, campaign strategy, and voting behavior. Compared with numerous researches in Plurality Systems and Proportional Representation Systems employed in most Western democratic countries, the Single Non-Transferable Vote (SNTV) System currently used in Taiwan, and formerly in Japan and South Korea, has not attracted too much attention of Western political scientists. As a matter of fact, the SNTV has some distinctive attributes. For instance, the nominating process in the multi-member districts is much more complicated and politically manipulable than that of Plurality with single-member-district system. In order to win as many seats as possible, the strategy of vote equalization within districts is very important for each party under the SNTV. However, the intra-party competition is always much more bitter than inter-party competition thus lots of people believe the SNTV itself is attributed to the emergence of party factionalism. Finally, Germany Hybrid System is recommended in this study for future reform of the electoral law in Taiwan.