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3 article(s) found.
Eric Chen-hua Yu, Assistant Research Fellow, Election Study Center; Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science,
National Chengchi University.
The Impact of President's Performance on Taiwan's Local Elections - Analyzing the 2009 Magistrate Elections (in Chinese) Download
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Taiwan's ruling party, Kuomintang (KMT), handed a loss to the opposition party, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), in the 2009 Magistrate Elections. The conventional wisdom suggests two competing arguments to interpret the election results-while some argued that the KMT's loss was mainly due to the lack of partisan mobilization within the KMT, some posited that it was because a significant proportion of voters changed their voting preferences from the KMT to the DPP between the 2008 national and 2009 local elections.In fact, both arguments share the same premise: there exists a linkage between the performance of the ruling party (in the central government) and its electoral prospect in local elections. Specifically, the performance of President Ma has a substantial impact on the 2009 local election. This study utilizes survey data to verify such premise. Our data analysis shows that a voter's assessments on President Ma's job performance as well as on general and personal economic conditions affect his/her voting intention. In other words, we found that the ”referendum voting model,” in which voters caste their votes in midterm elections on a basis of their evaluations of the ruling party, properly explains voting behavior in Taiwan's midterm elections such as the 2009 local elections.
Jong-tian Wang, Assistant Professor, Department and Graduate School of Public Affairs, Ming Chuan University.
The Types of Independent Voters and Their Voting Behavior: Some Observations from Taiwan' 2008 Presidential Election (in Chinese) Download
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This study aims to examine the dispute within literature concerning independent voters, differentiate independent voters in Taiwan, and therefore explore factors affecting their vote choices. Through analysis of the data from Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study, 2008 (TEDS2008P): Presidential Election, the preliminary findings are as follows: first, there are at least three major disputes in the literature, including the conceptualization and typology of independent voters, the measurement and operationalization of independent voters, and the explanation of why and how people become independent voters. Second, there is indeed a substantial distinction between pure independents and independent leaners in Taiwan. Third, short-term party preference and the overall evaluation of candidates are the two most significant factors affecting independents' vote choices. In addition, retrospective voting exerts different level of effect on these two independents. Specifically, while satisfaction with the incumbent plays more important role on independent leaners than on pure independents, overall evaluation of candidates seems to affect pure independents more than its counterpart. The explanatory power of party preference, however, is uniform to both kinds of voters.
Teh-fu Huang, Distinguished Professor of the Center for General Education, Hungkuang University, and adjunct
professor of the Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Jin-lin Huang, Ph.D. candidate of the Graduate School of Political Science, Chinese Culture University, and instructor of the Graduate School of Science and Technology Law, National Yunlin University of Science and Technology.
Retrospective Voting or Issue Voting: A Comparative Study of 2005 Magistrate Elections of Taipei and Kaohsiung Counties (in Chinese) Download
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The subjects of retrospective voting and issue voting have recently become the major focuses in the study of voting behavior. It is quite appropriate to investigate the models of retrospective voting and issue voting for the 2005 elections in Taiwan. Except for the emphasis on the factors of candidates and political parties in the traditional analysis of voting behavior, this study tries to explore the influence of retrospective voting and issue voting on the results of the 2005 Magistrate Elections of Taipei and Kaohsiung Counties. By conducting empirical analysis, we have had some important findings as follow. First of all, both retrospective voting and issue voting are not the important factors in this given elections. Secondly, the factors of political parties and candidates are critical forces in influencing the outcome of the elections. Thirdly, the influence of the variable of political parties is powerful than the variable of candidates in the elections. Finally, the factors of ”Ma Ying-chiu phenomenon” and ”Chen Che-nan Scandal” are not as important as we expected intuitively.