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4 article(s) found.
Doctoral Student, Department of Public Administration, National Chengchi University; Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
Please Be My Friend: The Taiwanese Public’s Ally Preferences between the United States and China Download
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This study takes advantage of Taiwan public opinion data to examine citizens’ views on whether their country should ally with the United States or China. It tests two hypotheses on how citizens arrive at their choice of an ally: ambivalence toward both the US and China, and an evaluation of which of the two countries is the more powerful. The results reveal that the proportion of the Taiwanese public that would pick China as an ally (41.7%) is almost the same as the proportion that would opt for the US (44.5%). Pan-Blue supporters and those favoring unification with China have a higher probability of choosing China, while Taiwan independence supporters and those identifying as Taiwanese only are less likely to choose China as an ally for Taiwan. Logistic regression analyses show that more ambivalent citizens are more likely to choose China, and that judgement of which country is most powerful is a conditional predictor of choice of ally.
Tzong-horng Dzwo, Department of Communication Management, Nan-hua University Title: Assistant Professor.
Mei-feng Chou, Graduate of Institute of Communication Management at Nan-hua University.
Study of Impacts of Reference Groups and Third-Person Effect on Voters' Willingness to Express Opinion in Taipei County Magistrate' s Election in 2001 (in Chinese) Download
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This study applied “Spiral of Silence Theory” to testing voters’ willingness to express opinions publicly during the Taipei County Magistrate’ s Election in 2001.

The findings supported the hypothesis of “Spiral of Silence Theory”. Voters were more willing to express opinions publicly when their perceptions of the distribution of public opinion were the same as their own. Taking “third-person effect” as the mediating factor, one who believed others would be more influenced by mass media than him/herself was more likely to express his/her own opinion given that the candidate he/ she supported was the same as considered to be elected in the election.

Regarding the impact of reference groups on voters’ willingness to express their opinions, only when voters and their relatives (or friends) supported the same candidate, did the former tend to openly express opinions. However, the effect of reference groups was cancelled out when voters’ opinion was identical with their perceptions of the distribution of public opinion. In this election, voters perceived the public opinion climate through the mass media instead of through reference groups.
Yeh-Lih Wang, Professor, Deptment of Political Science, Tunghai University.
Jui-Fen Yang, Master student, Graduate Institute of Political Science, Tunghai University.
Public Opinion Survey and Candidate Selection: A Case Study of DPP in 1998 Legislative Yuan Election (in Chinese) Download
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Two major parties in Taiwan, KMT and DPP, have implemented public opinion survey as the formal mechanism for their candidate selections. The employment of public opinion survey in the process of candidate selection is based on two hypotheses: (1) the usage of opinion survey may narrow down the gap between the ”party will” and the ”public opinion”, (2) the usage of opinion survey may reduce the influence of ”nominal party members”. This paper examines the candidate selection process of DPP in 1998 Legislative Yuan Election, and demonstrates that none of the hypotheses above are true. Moreover, when the public opinion survey was applied for the candidate selection, the most important function of the political party will be shrunk.
The 1996 Presidential Election Prediction: A Test of the Voting Behavior Model of No-Response Voters in the Poll (in Chinese)
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By using the following three variables: candidate image evaluation, expected capability in solving problem, and voter’s party preference in predicting in 1996 presidential, this study demonstrates that the findings have been highly close to election result, with the difference falling within three percent. The model has also been proved stable in terms of its minor variable in prediction throughout the three different testing time frame. The major findings of this study can be summed up as following: first of all, a no-response voter could vote for the candidate who was ranked first in image evaluation; secondary, problem-solving capability will be the second electoral decisive factor for a no-response voter, if he/she could not decide which candidate scores highest; thirdly, if a no-response repondent can decide which candidate could be the most capable one, he/she would vote accordingly, otherwise he/she tends to vote for the candidate with the same party affiliation; fourthly, those could not be screened out through the preceding process are, to an extent, inclined to vote for the DPP’s candidates than for the counterparts of the rest two parties.