2 article(s) found.
Transcending Ideological Barriers for Voting? New Applications of Political Territory Analysis in the 2014 Taipei City Mayoral Election (in Chinese)
Keywordpolitical party identity; political polarization; Mann-Kendall test; Theil-Sen slope estimator; change-point detection
The 2014 Taipei City mayoral election was overwhelmingly won by a grass-roots candidate, Dr. Wen-je Ko, who has been regarded as ＂Deep Green＂ in terms of Taiwan's political spectrum, but promoted the slogan ＂One City One Family＂ for new white power in this campaign. The rooted voting behaviors described by traditional political territories in Taipei City were supposed to be on the verge of imminent collapse, and whether the signal of transcending ideological barriers for voting in this case was grounded in reality or myth, is still worth exploring. This study conducted several tests for trend analyses used in nonparametric statistics and interpreted new applications based on political territory in this mayoral election. Furthermore, this study has three primary innovative perspectives. First, based on the voting database from the Central Election Commission for election studies, this study can explain how to utilize the basic unit of household address, such as Li, for building political territories, and our models presented the grouping political spectrum structures of voting behaviors of voters living in Taipei City by clustering analysis. This study can also develop a more novel approach to the combination of domestic political territory research and trend analyses embedded in nonparametric statistics, such as the Mann-Kendall test, the Theil-Sen's slope estimator, and Pettit test statistics for change-point detection, which are all adapted to analyze the trend characteristics for changing voting behaviors in Taipei City. Finally, based on built political territories, and linked with relevant concepts of political polarization, political party identity, and allocation effects when political parties drum up votes, the research results can determine and gain insight into the transcending of ideological barriers for voting in the 2014 Taipei City mayoral election.
Political Polarization in Taiwan: An Analysis on Mass Feeling Thermometer toward Political Parties (in Chinese)
Political conflicts between the pan-blue camp and the pan-green camp have been increasingly severe since the 1990’s. Whether Taiwanese politics has become more polarized hence is an important issue on research agenda. This study analyzes survey data collected after 1996-2012 presidential elections, exploring the degree of political polarization and the factors affecting political polarization in Taiwan. It is found that political polarization appeared in Taiwan since 2000 and then continuously increased until 2008. The polarization was the product of the clash of partisanship, instead of mass attitude of “U shaped distribution” on unificationindependence issues. Regarding the causes of political polarization, people’s partisanship and political involvement are main factors. People who have strong partisanship and high level of political involvement are more likely to become political polarized. In addition, the elder and the less educated people are also more possible to become polarized. As to the effect of election results on political polarization, longitudinal survey data are needed to do further analysis. In conclusion, the author suggests that efforts of political elites and the citizens to adjust their issue positions might not diminish political polarization. For a better solution, party elites and mass media in Taiwan should adopt rational communication instead of emotional mobilization.