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2 article(s) found.
Shun-chuan Chang, Assistant Professor, Holistic Education Center, Mackay Medical College.
Wen-jong Juang, Associate Professor and Chair, Department of Public Policy and Management, Shin Hsin University.
Cheng-hsiang Chang, Master of Department of Public Policy and Management, Shin Hsin University.
Understanding Party Vote Share and Split Voting: An Application of Bland-Altman Difference Plot and Political Relative Development Index (in Chinese) Download
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Taiwan has been under electoral reforms in recent years: Legislator election in 2008 started to adopt “single-district two votes system”. Combined legislative and presidential elections in 2012 allowed voters to vote for president, at-large legislators and local legislators concurrently for the first time, offering a great opportunity to study party vote share and split voting in general elections. There were practical researches on split voting, some of which analyse micro information from polls, and some are based on the macro data of votes in elections. However, these studies took into consideration neither the size of eligible voters in districts nor the ratio of national votes to regional votes a party or candidate get, which thus makes it hard to determine the correlation between split voting, the size of electoral districts and a party’s real political power strength.

This study attempts to examine party vote share and split voting from a novel perspective on proposing a new measurement and exemplifying with the general election in Taiwan in 2012. The research started with calculating the vote share of the Pan-Blue Coalition, the Pan-Green Coalition and each party in 368 administrative districts and gauging the voting gap with a traditional inspection method. Secondly, we tried to use a Bland-Altman difference plot to show the pattern of split voting by districts since every party’s ability to gain votes varies with areas. Thirdly, we discussed the strengths and inadequacies of the application to Bland-Altman difference. And then, the political relative development index, BDI and CDI, are introduced as the new framework for ascertaining party vote share and
measuring split voting to decide the relative level of voters’ support for some party, the Pan-Blue Coalition or the Pan-Green Coalition. Finally, the result from the new measurement is compared with that from the traditional method to validate the performance of the new approach, as well as to indicate future
research direction.
Chih-sung Teng, Associate Professor, Graduate Institute of National Development, National Taiwan University.
Chia-feng Huang, Doctoral Student, Department of Politics, University of California, Riverside.
Chin-en Wu, Associate Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
Environmental Protest and Green Party Vote Share: An Investigation of Party List Vote in the 2012 Legislative Election (in Chinese) Download
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We investigate the relationship between environmental protests and parties’ vote shares. Whether environmental protest contributes to the vote share of the Green party? As Green party emphasizes environment protection, people who suffer from environmental pollution is more likely to endorse Green Party. If not, what are the factors behind the situation? We collect and categorize environmental protest data between 1987 and 2009. Applying GIS and spatial analysis, we collapse protest events by township and issue types. Combining legislative election results, we analyze the influence of environmental protests on the vote shares of parties. The empirical result shows that anti-industrial pollution protests exert the most significant effect on party vote share but the influence varies across parties.

First, anti-industrial pollution protest is not significantly associated with the vote share of Green Party. The larger the number of anti-industrial pollution protest in a township, the higher the DPP’s vote share and the lower the KMT’s vote share. For the other types of environmental protests, we do not find comparable effect of protests on vote sharing. In this article we also find that it is socio-economic status of a township rather than the intensity of environmental protest that affect the electoral performance of Green party. Finally, the empirical model also demonstrates the significance of neighborhood effect on parties’ vote shares.