3 article(s) found.
Transcending Ideological Barriers for Voting? New Applications of Political Territory Analysis in the 2014 Taipei City Mayoral Election (in Chinese)
Keywordpolitical party identity; political polarization; Mann-Kendall test; Theil-Sen slope estimator; change-point detection
The 2014 Taipei City mayoral election was overwhelmingly won by a grass-roots candidate, Dr. Wen-je Ko, who has been regarded as ＂Deep Green＂ in terms of Taiwan's political spectrum, but promoted the slogan ＂One City One Family＂ for new white power in this campaign. The rooted voting behaviors described by traditional political territories in Taipei City were supposed to be on the verge of imminent collapse, and whether the signal of transcending ideological barriers for voting in this case was grounded in reality or myth, is still worth exploring. This study conducted several tests for trend analyses used in nonparametric statistics and interpreted new applications based on political territory in this mayoral election. Furthermore, this study has three primary innovative perspectives. First, based on the voting database from the Central Election Commission for election studies, this study can explain how to utilize the basic unit of household address, such as Li, for building political territories, and our models presented the grouping political spectrum structures of voting behaviors of voters living in Taipei City by clustering analysis. This study can also develop a more novel approach to the combination of domestic political territory research and trend analyses embedded in nonparametric statistics, such as the Mann-Kendall test, the Theil-Sen's slope estimator, and Pettit test statistics for change-point detection, which are all adapted to analyze the trend characteristics for changing voting behaviors in Taipei City. Finally, based on built political territories, and linked with relevant concepts of political polarization, political party identity, and allocation effects when political parties drum up votes, the research results can determine and gain insight into the transcending of ideological barriers for voting in the 2014 Taipei City mayoral election.
Party Identification, Negative Information, and Voting Choices: An Empirical Analysis of Municipal Mayoral Election in 2010 (in Chinese)
In modern electoral campaign, especially that in most single member districts, negative campaigning has become a popular strategy for most candidates. They broadcast negative information about their opponents in order to discourage their supporters and hence garner, if any, electoral advantage and maximize chances of election. Despite its prevalence, scholars still have not achieved an agreement on whether negative campaign is determinant to voting behavior. Especially, while statistics shows that receiving negative information is negatively associated with voting decisions, we found that interviewees generally asserted that the messages did not affect their voting decisions at all. To solve the self-contradictory puzzle, following conventional wisdom, we assert that voters apply party identification as a shortcut to sift political information. Thus, they ignore the negative information about their preferred candidate but reinforce their detestation of the candidates they do not like. We further examine our theory by incorporating the TEDS2010C data with structural equation model. The analytical result supports our hypotheses and shows that voters' party identity and voting decision significantly influence the negative information they received. Nevertheless, the negative information does not have significant influence on voters' voting decisions.
Who Vote Lee Teng-hui in Presidential Election? (in Chinese)
Keywordpresidential election; candidate images; party identity; Lee Teng-hui complex; nation identity; candidate ability; ethnic consciousness
This paper wants to know who is Lee’s votary and examines the importance of candidate image, party identity, candidate’s ability in the presidential election of 1996.The result indicated that Lee’s main votaries are older, low school record and live in rural. Furthermore, candidate image turned out to be the most important factor in determining vote-choice. Party identity and candidate’s ability ranked the next. In the Logit Model, Category of candidate images inclined to Lee Teng-hui and candidate images inclined to Lin Yang-kang had the most prominent contribution. Category of party identity trend to KMT and party identity trend to NP ranked the next. The result accord with social fact that voters of NP have strong anti-Lee complex, otherwise some DPP’s followers have Lee Teng-hui complex.