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22 article(s) found.
Ph.D., Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University; Research Fellow, Election Study Center, National Chengchi University; Professor and Department Chair, Department of Politics and Government, Illinois State University
Generational Difference of Taiwan Identity—the Effects on Vote Choice in the 2016 Presidential Election
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Recent political protests led by young people in Taiwan appear to reflect a strong sense of attachment to their identity as Taiwanese. Employing survey data collected for the 2016 presidential election, this study confirms that Taiwanese identity continues to grow among the island citizens, particularly among the younger generations. While identity exerts a powerful effect on how
people vote, there is also a visible generational gap. Members of the younger generations are less likely to be affected by their Taiwanese identity than older ones.
Yi-ching Hsiao, Associate Professor, Department of Public Administration, Tamkang University.
Change in Voters’ Candidate Evaluation during a Political Campaign: A Case Study of the 2012 Presidential Election in Taiwan Download
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The political context to which the electorate is exposed is filled with a variety of political information and becomes more and more competitive during political campaigns. This seems to mean that a given campaign facilitates the electorate to create for itself clearer and more drastic political preference based on party identi.cation up to voting day. The author utilizes the pre-election survey data from rolling cross-sectional telephone interviews during the 2012 Taiwan’s presidential election to detect the influence of party identification on candidate evaluation during the political campaign. It was found that the electorate had a signi.cantly clear preference between the main candidates up to voting day, especially for the more involved voters. Furthermore, the correlations between voters’ party identification and its political attitudes including candidate evaluation and government performance become increasingly tighter as voting day approaches. In conclusion, this study proves the reinforcement of the party identification effect during political campaigns and suggests that it would be worthy to investigate it in a different political context in the future.
Cheng-hao Pao, Associate Professor, Department of Global Politics and Economics, Tamkang University.
Party Image and Indigenous Voting Choice: A Case Study of the 2016 Presidential Election (in Chinese) Download
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Due to inherent difficulties of minority surveys, our understanding of indigenous election politics largely depends on qualitative studies. However, such studies usually lead to contradictory results because of different cases or interviewees. It is hard to develop a general explanation. This paper, as the very first one to study the relationship between party image and indigenous voting choice by implementing a quantitative method in Taiwan, can improve our understanding of indigenous voting behavior and lay a foundation for future relevant studies. The research results indicate that indigenous voting choice is influenced by party image. Party image affects voting choice significantly. Even under the condition of controlling party identification, the influence of party image on voting choice is still significant. In other words, party image is differs from party identification conceptually but both affect voting choice. This study found that when the direction of party image is the same as party identification, voting choice tends to be consistent with party image and party identification. However, for political neutrals, due to the fact that the DPP's party image is "making progress, changing the status quo, and offering more opportunities to young people," which is more attractive than the KMT's party "conservative" image, they tend to vote DPP.
Alex C. H. Chang, Assistant Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
Egoism or Altruism: Citizens’ Attitude toward Redistribution in the 2012 Presidential Election (in Chinese) Download
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Unlike conventional presidential elections in which ethnic identity, unification and independence, and economic development were the core issues of political competitions, in the 2012 presidential election, the issue of social justice and redistribution firstly was included in the candidates’ platforms. This article investigates the question of redistribution from the theoretical perspectives and political competition, and explains the variation in the voters’ opinions on this issue. By incorporating the TEDS 2012 data with structural equation modeling, we find that the theories of classical political economy, the supply theory of public goods, and party identity all provide explanations for this issue. In addition, we also find that although the cross-strait economic and trade exchange does not directly influence people’s opinions toward redistribution, nevertheless, it impacts their attitudes toward their future household income, and indirectly affects their standpoints on the redistributive issues.
Wan-ying Yang, Professor, Department of Politic Science, National Chengchi University.
Pei-ting Lin, Post-doctoral Researcher, Election Study Center, National Chengchi University.
Do Women Transfer Their Votes to Tsai? The Change of Gender Gap from 2008 to 2012 Presidential Election (in Chinese) Download
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In 2008 presidential election, Taiwan for the first time appeared a significant gender gap in voting; in 2012 presidential election, the first female presidential candidate arose to challenge the incumbent. To compare the changes between these two elections, this study uses ”Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study (TEDS)” panel data (2008P-2012) to observe the stability/change and the patterns of gender gap among the same set of voters. The analysis shows that women voters are more likely than men to change their votes from the KMT candidate to the DPP candidate. The transferring pattern of women voters accounts for the shrink of the voting gender gap comparing to the last election. In terms of the explanation for the voting change, we compare three factors, the party identification, candidate evaluation and issue effect. All of these three factors affect voting decisions to different extent, but in explaining gender difference of the voting change, only the candidate factor is significant. Voting change is mainly due to the female voters with stable party identification, transferring their votes from the KMT to DPP candidate. Among those female voters, some of them are stable DPP supporters who voted for Ma in the 2008 election and returned to vote for DPP candidate Tsai, and still some are stable KMT supporters who cross their party line to vote for their preferred DPP candidate Tsai. Comparing these two presidential elections with panel data, we can conclude that men are more likely to stick to their party identification in casting their ballots, whereas women are more likely to be influenced by other factors besides party identification. And this time, the other factor is the candidate. For those female voters who give the DPP candidate higher evaluation, voting transfer is a natural result.
Shu-mei Chuang, Master, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
Yung-tai Hung, Professor, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
A Study of Negative Identification against a Specific Party in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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According to The American Voter, party identification affects voters' attitudes, feelings, even the voting behavior towards political parties. In Taiwan, party identification indeed has fundamental effects on voters' voting behavior. But there is still something that can't be explained. This study found that negative identification against a specific party is also a crucial factor that affects voters' voting behavior. The negative attitude towards a specific party is a long-term, consistent attitude. And it is very hard to change.

The study employed methods including in-depth interviews, focus groups and telephone survey to investigate the issue. First, results from qualitative research indicated that three factors, namely, national identity, ethnic identity and party image are the roots of the voters' negative attitude toward a specific party. The study also developed a questionnaire to measure the negative attitudes toward a specific party of the voters in Taiwan; 46.3% of the survey respondents expressed that there is one or more than one parties they would have never voted for. We then combined the traditional party identification variable and the newly-developed ”which party that you will never vote for” variable into a new party identification indicator. Empirical studies using survey data showed that the new variable were good in both validity and reliability tests and was doing very well in explaining voters' voting behavior in Taiwan.
Shing-yuan Sheng, Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Stability and Change of Party Identification among Taiwanese Voters: A Panel Data Analysis (in Chinese) Download
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This research utilizes the 2004-2008 panel data to examine the stability and change of party identification among Taiwanese voters. Several findings are worth highlighting: First, individuals' present party identification is affected by previous party identification, as well as evaluations on the parties and political elites, and issue positions. This shows that party identification of Taiwanese voters is affected by both forces of stability and change. Second, the effect of the previous party identification on the present party identification is different across generations: it is the largest on the first generation, the second on the second generation, and the smallest on the third generation. Third, 61.3 percent of voters continue their party identification. For those who change their party identification, most of them are from a small party to a large party. Also noteworthy is when they change their party identification, they change according to the blue-green boundary. Therefore, I argue that the blue-green dimension, or the KMT-DPP dimension, based on the ethnic groups and independence-unification issue, is the target of party identification. This is based on experiences of political socialization when voters first entered into the political arena. Furthermore, this blue-green dimension is possibly reinforced by the new electoral system. Therefore, under the circumstance that the electoral system stabilizes and no new issue emerges, the party identification of Taiwanese voters helps to shape a two party system.
Jong-tian Wang, Assistant Professor, Department and Graduate School of Public Affairs, Ming Chuan University.
The Types of Independent Voters and Their Voting Behavior: Some Observations from Taiwan' 2008 Presidential Election (in Chinese) Download
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This study aims to examine the dispute within literature concerning independent voters, differentiate independent voters in Taiwan, and therefore explore factors affecting their vote choices. Through analysis of the data from Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study, 2008 (TEDS2008P): Presidential Election, the preliminary findings are as follows: first, there are at least three major disputes in the literature, including the conceptualization and typology of independent voters, the measurement and operationalization of independent voters, and the explanation of why and how people become independent voters. Second, there is indeed a substantial distinction between pure independents and independent leaners in Taiwan. Third, short-term party preference and the overall evaluation of candidates are the two most significant factors affecting independents' vote choices. In addition, retrospective voting exerts different level of effect on these two independents. Specifically, while satisfaction with the incumbent plays more important role on independent leaners than on pure independents, overall evaluation of candidates seems to affect pure independents more than its counterpart. The explanatory power of party preference, however, is uniform to both kinds of voters.
Wang-ying Yang, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, National Cheng-Chi University.
Pei-ting Lin, Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Political Science, National Cheng-Chi University.
Why Do Women Vote for Ma? The Gender Gap in the 2008 Presidential Election (in Chinese) Download
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Since the direct presidential election was held in Taiwan 12 years ago, for the first time a significant voting gender gap appeared in the 2008 presidential election. Women voters supported candidate Ma which boosted him winning the president election. This study attempts to explore why there was such a substantial gender gap in that election. To explain the gender gap, we first compared the factors in explaining voting decision-candidate evaluation, issue positions, socioeconomic factors, and party identification, to see if gender gap exists in these factors. Furthermore, we applied the logit models to examine whether gender differences in these factors lead to voting gender gap. The models show that although gender gaps were evident on voters' candidate evaluation, party identification, some issue positions and socioeconomic conditions, not all of these differences translated into voting gender gaps. Gender differences in party identification remained the strongest factor in explaining gender difference in voting choices. Comparatively, the voting gender gap caused by party identification is evident in that women were less likely to identify with pan-Green party, and pan-Green women might vote across their party line. We further examine respectively the interaction between voters' party identification and candidate factor, and the interaction between voters' party identification and issue evaluation. The results show that candidate factor is not the underlying factor linking the gender gap in party identification and voting gender gap. But the distance of issue positions between voters and parties/candidates on social welfare and environment might explain why women voters identify differently from men with parties and how these differences transfer into voting gender gaps.
Yi-ching Shiao, Ph. D. Candidate, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Measuring Party Identification in Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study (in Chinese) Download
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The major purpose of this article is to examine the measurement of party identification in the Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) from the perspectives of intransitivity and multidimensionality. Furthermore, an index of blue-green party difference is constructed to measure the voters' relative preference between the pan-blue camp and the pan-green camp in order to better account for their voting decision. It is found that the measurement of party identification in TEDS is successful with regard to the transitivity assumption. The fact that more than twenty percent of respondents share the highest score for the major parties indicates the presence of multidimensionality in this measurement. Last, it also empirically demonstrated that the index of blue-green party difference is a better measure because of its evident transitivity and its stronger statistical association with voting decision.