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4 article(s) found.
Ming-tong Chen, Professor, Graduate Institute of National Development, National Taiwan University.
Shi-huei Yang, Ph.D. candidate, Graduate Institute of National Development, National Taiwan University.
Spill-over Effects of the “Ko Wen-je Phenomenon” in Taiwan’s 2014 Local Elections: Case Study of Potential Coattail Effects on DPP Hsinchu City Mayoral Candidate Lin Chi-jian (in Chinese) Download
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In nation-wide local elections held on November 29, 2014, the Kuomintang (KMT) suffered its worst defeat in the post-war history of local elections in Taiwan. The party saw its control of the country’s 22 local executive posts dwindle from 15 to only 6. Most notable among the KMT’s setbacks was its mayoral election defeat in the Taipei City, which had been run by a KMT mayor for 16 years. Ko Wen-je, an independent who ran under the banner of a “grand opposition alliance,” defeated KMT candidate Sean Lien by nearly 250,000 votes. The KMT’s post-election review report pointed to spill-over effects from the Taipei election to other local contests as one of the reasons for its crushing defeat nation-wide.

Did the “Ko Wen-je phenomenon” truly produce such spill-over effects? This study looks at the Hsinchu City mayoral election, using various empirical data to assess potential spill-over effects from Ko’s Taipei candidacy to that of DPP Hsinchu City mayoral candidate Lin Chi-jian. Hierarachical non-linear modeling is applied to analyze a combination of individual-level and macro-level data. The data analysis shows that with respect to individual-level variables, voters’ preference for Lin Chi-jian, party-orientation, and age clearly influenced the level of support for Lin’s candidacy. At the macro-level, support for Lin was positively correlated with Ko Wen-je’s level of support and media exposure as well as positive commentary on Ko’s candidacy on television news programs. The results of the study confirm the existence of coattail effects of the Ko Wen-je phenomenon in Taiwan’s 2014 local elections.
Eric Chen-hua Yu, Assistant Research Fellow, Election Study Center; Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science,
National Chengchi University.
The Impact of President's Performance on Taiwan's Local Elections - Analyzing the 2009 Magistrate Elections (in Chinese) Download
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Taiwan's ruling party, Kuomintang (KMT), handed a loss to the opposition party, Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), in the 2009 Magistrate Elections. The conventional wisdom suggests two competing arguments to interpret the election results-while some argued that the KMT's loss was mainly due to the lack of partisan mobilization within the KMT, some posited that it was because a significant proportion of voters changed their voting preferences from the KMT to the DPP between the 2008 national and 2009 local elections.In fact, both arguments share the same premise: there exists a linkage between the performance of the ruling party (in the central government) and its electoral prospect in local elections. Specifically, the performance of President Ma has a substantial impact on the 2009 local election. This study utilizes survey data to verify such premise. Our data analysis shows that a voter's assessments on President Ma's job performance as well as on general and personal economic conditions affect his/her voting intention. In other words, we found that the ”referendum voting model,” in which voters caste their votes in midterm elections on a basis of their evaluations of the ruling party, properly explains voting behavior in Taiwan's midterm elections such as the 2009 local elections.
Yi-ching Hsiao, Assistant Professor, Department of Public Administration, Tamkang University.
Chi Huang, Chair Professor and Senior Research Fellow, Department of Political Science and Election Study Center, National Chengchi University.
Government Performance and Voter Choice in Local Elections: The Case of 2009 Yunlin County and Township Magistrates Elections (in Chinese) Download
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Free and fair election is the core of democracy. Regular election in turn is the most important vehicle for the electorate to hold the ruling party and government accountable. This paper, based on theoretical arguments, elaborates the effects of government performance at different levels of elections. We argue that the higher the level of elections, the higher the level of government is held accountable by the electorate, while at the bottom local level elections, only the local government performance matters. In the county magistrate's election, the central government's performance should play a more important role on voter choice. By contrast, in the township magistrate's election, the local government's performance should have greater effects on voter choice. We test this proposition with the case of Yunlin in the 2009 county and township magistrates' elections with the survey data collected by the Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) project. We find that indeed voter choice in county magistrate's election is significantly affected by both central and county government's performance. However, neither central nor local government performance has significant effect on voter choice in township magistrates' election. This finding may reflect the fact that bottom-level local elections relies more on social networks and local factions than on government policy evaluation.
Jr-Tsung Huang, Associate Professor of Economics in the Department of Public Finance at National Chengchi University, Taipei, Taiwan.
Hsiao-Ling Cheng, Master in the Sun Yat-Sen Graduate Institute of Social Sciences and Humanities at National Chengchi University, Taipei, Taiwan.
Economic Voting and Party Rotation-The Case of County Magistrates and City Mayors Elections in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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This paper applies the economic voting theory to analyze the county magistrates and city mayors elections in Taiwan and uses a county-and city- level pooling data from 1989 to 2001 to examine the possible factors which cause the party rotation of the county magistrates and city mayors elections. After estimating Probit model, the primary finding is that the local unemployment rates have no impact on election outcomes of the county magistrates and city mayors. Instead, the national unemployment rates have a significant effect on election outcomes. Generally, the probabilities of party rotation of the counties and cities ruled by the president's party are lower than others. However, this advantage will be damaged as the national unemployment rate is higher in the election year than that in the previous year. Additionally, the incumbents are more likely to defeat the challengers and renew their term of office. Finally, the longer the governing party rules the county or city, the higher the probability of party rotation for this county or city.