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8 article(s) found.
Research Fellow of Election Study Center and Professor of Graduate Institute of East Asian Studies,Taiwan Institute for Governance and Communication Research, National Chengchi University.
Electoral Competition, Incumbency, News Coverage, and Prediction Market Price: A Preliminary Study of Campaign Contributions and Spending in Taiwan’s 2016 Legislative Elections (in English) Download
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In a political campaign, candidates attempt to mobilize voters by using contributions from individuals, corporations, and political parties. It is an accepted fact of democracy that campaigns should attempt to outdo one another in both the amount they collect in contributions and what they spend on campaigns. Previous research has explored the incumbent advantage in campaign finance, but many interesting factors remain. For instance, is fund-raising aided by factors such as the closeness of an election or a candidate’s tenure in the Legislative Yuan? In this study, we explain campaign contributions using data from prediction markets and television news reports to account for variations in campaign spending. Our results suggest that incumbent advantage does indeed affect contributions and that DPP candidates outperformed other candidates in campaign finance. We also find that previous electoral margins and television news coverage contribute significantly to campaign donations, and that election betting has an impact on spending. These findings suggest that a political party’s general campaign can influence the election race of an individual candidate, and that contributors tend to bet on likely winners, deepening the influence of the electoral system on competing political parties.
Da-wei Kuan, Associate Professor, Department of Ethnology, National Chengchi University.
Shih-yuan Lin, Associate Professor, Department of Land Economics, National Chengchi University.
Su-feng Cheng, Research Fellow, Election Study Center, National Chengchi University.
A Preliminary Study of Single Member District Delimitation for Indigenous Legislators in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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Two often discussed issues remain in the elections for indigenous legislators in Taiwan. One is the way for identifying plain or mountain indigenous district is outdated and the other is, unlike their regional counterparts, the multiple member district is continued to be implemented in election. The former is an issue related to constitution regulation which implies a considerably difficult to be dealt with under current circumstance. Yet, though the constitution does prescribe the number of total indigenous legislators for plain and mountain areas respectively, it does not prescribe the district magnitude for each election. This has provided a possibility for redistricting the indigenous legislators in election. This paper aims at redistricting the boundary from multiple member district into single member district and assessing the potential impacts on the elections for indigenous legislators.

Three redistricting proposals are provided by this paper, the result suggests that in general, the criteria for delimitation such as population equality, contiguity and compactness could all be achieved. As for the impacts of replacing the multiple member district by single member district, this paper suggests that since population from the four main tribes of Amis, Paiwan, Atayal and Bunun make up eighty percent of the indigenous population, the electoral result after redistricting will not be dramatically different from those of multiple member district, all the seats might remain to be shared by the four main tribes. It is argued that, since indigenous legislators enjoy a solid electoral base at home, redistricting the electoral boundary would not affect her/his prospects for electoral victory. Moreover, the redistricting would significantly reduce the size of district and thus enable a more thorough constituency service.
Yi-ching Hsiao, Assistant Professor, Department of Public Administration, Tamkang University.
People's Perception of the Party Lists in Taiwan's 2008 Legislative Election and It's Effect (in Chinese) Download
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The mixed-member majoritarian system was first adopted in the 2008 legislative election in Taiwan. In accordance with this electoral system, each voter has two ballots to cast at the same time. The first ballot is for the candidates in the single member district, and the second is for the party list, which determines the seats each party receives. Theoretically, voters' decision on the second ballot depends not only on his or her party identification but also on the quality of party list. Since the two ballots system was recently adopted in 2008, most people are not familiar with the mixed-member majoritarian system. Therefore, this article attempts to examine the voters' perception of the party list and their preference, and furthermore to assess whether their perception and preference would affect their voting choice on the second ballot. The empirical survey data of TEDS2008L is analyzed in this article to answer these questions. It is found that while most voters can neither recognize the names on the lists of the two major parties nor indicate their preference among the lists. However, voters are significantly more likely to vote for the party list they recognize or prefer. This result indicates that parties should make every endeavor to enhance the quality of the party list in order to receive more votes in this newly adopted electoral system in Taiwan.
Cheng-hao Pao, Assistant Professor, Department of Global Political Economy, Tamkang University.
The Change and Continuity of Aboriginal Electoral Politics: An Analysis of the Aggregate Data of Indigenous Legislative Elections Results (1992-2008) (in Chinese) Download
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This research analyzes the aggregate data of indigenous legislative election results (1992-2008) to figure out the indigenous vote distribution and to discuss the reasons to cause the electoral stability and change by using the cross-level inference method. The research findings show that the KMT does not enjoy a stable support from Taiwan's indigenous electorate. A certain part of the KMTs electoral support is based on local politicians' personal votes. Once the alliance between the KMT and local politicians is broken, the KMT's electoral support will be immediately shrunk. In other words, political students who study Taiwan's aboriginal electoral politics should regard not only political parties but also local politicians as research units. In fact, in order to have profound understandings about aboriginal electoral politics, this research suggests a new perspective, by using local politician's personal votes as a breakthrough point, to do the researches.
Chih-sung Teng, Assistant Professor, Graduate Institute of National Development, National Taiwan University.
Chin-en Wu, Assistant Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
I-Jung Ko, Post-graduate student, Graduate Institute of National Development, National Taiwan University.
Spatial Distribution of Votes and Disproportionality: An Observation of the 6th and 7th Legislative Elections (in Chinese) Download
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In the 7th legislative election, Taiwan adopted the single-member district plurality, two-vote system. KMT garnered 53.5% of popular votes but received 78.1% of total seats. What factors account for the bias, and what is the role that spatial distribution of votes and districting plays? To answer these questions, we employ GIS and spatial econometrics to explore the determinants of disproportionality. Our empirical data comprised of the result of the 6th and 7th legislative election. We find that the vote share gap between parties and equally distributed votes across districts are the main contributing factors, while districting does not prove itself significant. On the other hand, we also use GIS to illustrate the relationship between vote concentration and seats allocation in several counties.
Wei-Ii Wu, Master student, Institute of Sociology, National Tsing Hua University.
Yung-tai Hung, Professor, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
The Vote Distribution of the Taiwan Solidarity Union: An Analysis of the 2001 Legislative Election Records (in Chinese) Download
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Is it the ideology affiliated with ex-president Lee Teng-hui or the traditional local political factions that consist of the bases of Taiwan Solidarity Union's support? Our study finds that the later plays more important role than the former does. The study derives three indicators using village vote counts from the 2001 and some from 1995 and 1998 legislative election records, the first. is a Gini-coefficient type indicator showing the extent of candidate's vote dispersion pattern; the second uses votes from only a portion of total villages, from top down 10%, 20% and from bottom up 10%, 20% to show the distribution of candidate's strength and weakness; the third uses the overlapping percentage of candidate's top 5% vote-getting villages during 1995, 1998 and 2001 elections to examine candidate's steady strength before and after the Lee Teng-hui affiliation. The article also discusses the campaign strategies employed by the TSU for maximizing her political strength under the SNTV electoral system in Taiwan.
Lu-huei Chen, Assistant Research Fellow, Election Study Center, National Chengchi Uni­versity, Taiwan.
Political Trust and Voting Behavior in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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In this paper, we employ longitudinal data to explore the change and continuity of political trust among the electorate in Taiwan. After the 2000 presidential election, whether the distribution of political trust will follow the rotation of ruling power is our research interest. We also would like to explore which factors affect people's political trust, and how political trust might affect people's voting behavior. By employing 1992, 1995, 1998, and 2001 face-to face interviews after legislative elections, we are able to explore the change and continuity of people's political trust in Taiwan.

From our findings, we showed that the distribution of people's political trust declined during 1992 and 1998. However, as the 2001 survey data showed, people's political trust rebounded after the 2000 presidential election. Among factors affected people's political trust, people's partisan preference toward the KMT, voters among the first generation, people with elementary school education were more likely to have higher level of political trust between 1992 and 1998. However, people with the DPP or the NP partisan preference were more likely to have lower level of political trust. After the 2000 presidential election, people with the DPP partisan preference changed their level of political trust, and became more likely to trust the ruling authorities. We also demonstrated that people with higher level of political trust were more likely to support the ruling party in the legislative elections.
Parties’ Vote-Equalizing Strategies and Their Impacts under a SNTV Electoral System: A Study on Taiwan’s Legislative Elections from 1983 to 1995 (in Chinese)
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This paper examines the major parties’ vote-equalizing strategies and the impacts of these strategies on candidates’ vote-distribution under a SNTV electoral system. From this perspective, this study tries to observe party competition and party politics in Taiwan since the 1980s. Based on a study on legislative elections from 1983 to 1995, this paper shows some research findings. First, the KMT uses the local factions and “responsibility zone system” to mobilize and allocate potential votes to her candidates. Therefore, the vote-distribution of the KMT candidates tends to be concentrated on some parts of the electoral district. On the other hand, the DPP and NP cannot be helped by the local organizations so that the vote shares of their candidates tend to be scattered across the district. Secondly, from a longitudinal perspective, the vote shares of the KMT candidates are getting scattered. This tendency has become evident since the end of the 1980s, when the opposition parties were gradually organized and institutionalized. Thirdly, the influence of the local factions has gradually become weak because of the development of social economy and the emergence of the opposition parties. All of these tendencies show that the KMT’s campaign system which depends on vote allocation, local factions and grass-root organizations has become shaky.