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4 article(s) found.
Research Assistant, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica. E-mail: as0191121@gate.sinica.edu.tw.

Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica. E-mail: polclw@gate.sinica.edu.tw.
Social Distance and Cross-Strait Relations:Taiwanese Attitudes toward the Independence/Unification Issue
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This study probes Taiwanese perception of social distance toward China and its impact on their political attitudes toward the issue of independence/unification. Taking advantage of social distance and social identity theories from social psychology, we hypothesize that the Taiwanese people with a smaller perceived social distance toward China would indicate an inclination for China unification; otherwise, they would prefer Taiwan’s independence. We modify the relational models theory to construct two variables to approximate social distance: we ask respondents first whether they regard China as a family member or a partner, and second, whether China views Taiwan as a family member or a partner. To examine our arguments, we utilize the “2019 Survey of the Image of China” to investigate the association between different types of relational cognitions and their impacts on cross-Strait relations. The findings by and large confirm the validity of the relational models
theory, revealing that the Taiwanese electorate is prone to support unification when
it perceives a closer social distance toward China. The results also demonstrate that
those who are willing to accept China as an in-group tend to expect reciprocity from
China. In contrast, those perceiving a greater social distance toward China exhibit ambivalent independence/unification preferences; they express less intimate attitudes but also do not exhibit great hostility toward China.
Lu-huei Chen, Distinguished Research Fellow, Election Study Center / Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Ying-nan Chen, Ph. D., Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Political Emotions and their Effects on Cross- Strait Economic Exchange: A Study of College Students in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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During the impressionable years of college students, their political orientations are still amenable. Therefore, exploring the political attitudes of college students sheds light on our understanding of Taiwan’s electoral politics. Beginning from the Sunflower Movement in 2014, college students’ attitudes toward cross-Strait relations has attracted the public’s attention. This study argues that we have to take political emotions into consideration when we analyze college students’ attitudes on cross-Srait relations. We employ panel studies to examine how political emotions affect their stances on cross-Strait economic exchange. We demonstrate that when college students feel enthusiasm toward Taiwan or feel hopeful toward Mainland China, they are more likely to support cross-Strait economic exchange. However, students with feelings of anxiety tend to urge the government to take strict measures on cross-Strait economic exchanges. As for students with a hopeful attitude toward Mainland China, they are willing to support the Cross-Strait Service and Trade Agreement, but those who harbor feelings of anger toward Mainland China tend to be opposed to this agreement. Therefore, this study shows that political emotions play an important role in college students’ attitudes toward cross-Strait relations.
Chih-cheng Meng, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science and Graduate Institute of Political Economy,
National Cheng Kung University.
The Issue Effect of the "92 Consensus" on 2012 Taiwan Presidential Election: An Application and Empirical Assessment of Propensity Score Matching (in Chinese) Download
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News and many public comments indicate that the “92 consensus” was the crucial issue to affect the result of Taiwan 2012 presidential election. This paper aims to study the effect of the 92 consensus on voters’ choices in 2012. This paper reviews the core assumptions, boundary of application and analytical methods of the “issue voting” theory. Moreover, it focus on studying the impacts of the 92 consensus that are presumed to be endogenously correlated with party identification. Based on the approach of “studying the effects of a cause”, as well as using the “2012 Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study” dataset (TEDS2012-T and TEDS2012), this paper applies “propensity score matching” (PSM) method to investigate the issue effect of the “92 consensus” on voting choices during 2012 election.

The results from the data analysis demonstrate that positions supportive of the “92 consensus” account for about twenty percent of supporting rates to pro-Ma voters in the period of the electoral campaign; meanwhile, positions oppositional to the “92 consensus” would contribute about thirteen percent of supporting rates for pro-Tsai voters. After the election the influential probability of the “92 consensus” was dramatically downsized to ten percent of supporting rates to pro-Ma voters; however, the percentage for pro-Tsai voters was slightly reduced to twelve percent. These findings provide more valid and credible estimates toward the influential probability of the “92 consensus” issue during the 2012 elections. Moreover, the statistical findings over various time-points also verify the successful transformation of the “92 consensus” to be identified as a salient issue across pro-Ma and pro-Tsai voters. It indeed achieved substantial influences toward the processes and result of 2012 presidential election.
Lu-huei Chen, Research Fellow, Election Study Center, National Chengchi University.
Shu Keng, Associate Professor, Graduate Institute of East Asian Studies, National Chengchi University.
T. Y. Wang, Professor, Department of Politics & Government, Illinois State University.
Taiwan's 2008 Presidential Election and Its Implications on Cross-Strait Relations: The Effects of Taiwanese Identity, Trade Interests and Military Threats (in Chinese) Download
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Based on the analysis of survey data collected on the eve of Taiwan's 2008 presidential election, our study seeks to clarify the effects of the following factors on the island citizens' voting behavior: (1)Taiwanese identity, (2)expected benefits from cross-Strait economic exchanges, and (3)the perceived likelihood of China's use of military force. The findings show that, in addition to party identification, both Taiwanese identity and expected economic benefits have important effects on the islanders' vote choices. Unexpectedly, China's military threats played an insignificant role in voters' decisions. Because Taiwanese identity and expected economic benefits are at the center of the political discourse on cross-Strait relations, future interactions between Taiwan and China will continue to play a significant role in the island's politics.