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9 article(s) found.
Teng-wen Chang,Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Public Administration, National Chengchi University.
Tong-yi Huang,Professor, Department of Public Administration, National Chengchi University.
Yung-tai Hung,Retired Professor, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
Post-Strati.ed Estimation Procedures for the Dual Frame Telephone Survey in Taiwan: The Case of the 2016 Presidential Election Download
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The advancement of information and communication technologies has greatly changed the lifestyle of people while using landline surveys in soliciting precise public opinion is becoming limited. As people use a variety of devices such as cellphones, internet phones and APPs in daily communication, problems of insufficient population coverage arise from relying only on landline phones to reach respondents. Therefore, a daunting task in the telephone polling industry is to ensure sample representation for obtaining precise population parameters. To achieve such an objective, a common practice by pollsters in Taiwan is to use household data as weighting statistics. Many cases, however, have shown this practice to be inappropriate.
To solve the above-mentioned problem, this study proposes an estimation method based on a dual frame survey that combines landline phones and cellphones. We further use data from the 2016 presidential election to compare different estimations based on a dual frame survey. Our results demonstrate that a “landline survey supplemented by cellphone-only” is the best combination, considering sample coverage and estimation error. The second-best alternatives are “cellphone survey supplemented by landline-only” and “use both landline and cellphone.” In other words, “the most economical and efficient” strategy of a dual frame survey is to conduct a traditional landline survey and incorporating cellphone-only respondents. The data collected in such combination not only reflect the characteristics of the population, but also cost much less than other strategies.
Shu-mei Chuang, Master, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
Yung-tai Hung, Professor, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
A Study of Negative Identification against a Specific Party in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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According to The American Voter, party identification affects voters' attitudes, feelings, even the voting behavior towards political parties. In Taiwan, party identification indeed has fundamental effects on voters' voting behavior. But there is still something that can't be explained. This study found that negative identification against a specific party is also a crucial factor that affects voters' voting behavior. The negative attitude towards a specific party is a long-term, consistent attitude. And it is very hard to change.

The study employed methods including in-depth interviews, focus groups and telephone survey to investigate the issue. First, results from qualitative research indicated that three factors, namely, national identity, ethnic identity and party image are the roots of the voters' negative attitude toward a specific party. The study also developed a questionnaire to measure the negative attitudes toward a specific party of the voters in Taiwan; 46.3% of the survey respondents expressed that there is one or more than one parties they would have never voted for. We then combined the traditional party identification variable and the newly-developed ”which party that you will never vote for” variable into a new party identification indicator. Empirical studies using survey data showed that the new variable were good in both validity and reliability tests and was doing very well in explaining voters' voting behavior in Taiwan.
Wei-Ii Wu, Master student, Institute of Sociology, National Tsing Hua University.
Yung-tai Hung, Professor, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
The Vote Distribution of the Taiwan Solidarity Union: An Analysis of the 2001 Legislative Election Records (in Chinese) Download
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Is it the ideology affiliated with ex-president Lee Teng-hui or the traditional local political factions that consist of the bases of Taiwan Solidarity Union's support? Our study finds that the later plays more important role than the former does. The study derives three indicators using village vote counts from the 2001 and some from 1995 and 1998 legislative election records, the first. is a Gini-coefficient type indicator showing the extent of candidate's vote dispersion pattern; the second uses votes from only a portion of total villages, from top down 10%, 20% and from bottom up 10%, 20% to show the distribution of candidate's strength and weakness; the third uses the overlapping percentage of candidate's top 5% vote-getting villages during 1995, 1998 and 2001 elections to examine candidate's steady strength before and after the Lee Teng-hui affiliation. The article also discusses the campaign strategies employed by the TSU for maximizing her political strength under the SNTV electoral system in Taiwan.
Yung-tai Hung, Professor, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
The Nonresponse Problems of the 2001 TEDS Survey (in Chinese) Download
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The study looks into the nonresponse problems of the 2001 TEDS survey, particularly in factors related to the failure of data collection and the effect of substitutes. Data analyses include the demographic characteristics of the sample originally selected, nonresponse statistics during different waves of interview attempts, the effect of substitutes, the follow-up interviews, and the differences of survey results from those samples. The results indicate that the main difference between complete interviews and those of unit-nonresponses lay on respondents’age and their related characteristics. There is no significant difference between these two groups on political attitudes. The most frequent cause for unit-nonresponse is failure to locate the selected respondent after reaching their dwelling houses, especially for those of younger respondents. Refusals are not correlated with respondents’ gender or age, but do correlate with areas and respondents’ life style. Substitutes are similar to those of complete interviews, hence fail to fulfill their original goals, i.e., replacing those hard to reach or those sampled respondents with high risk of nonresponse. The study suggests that for the future survey it is better to inflate sample size at the beginning, and try hard on follow-up interviews. Using substitutes will not correct the bias caused by unit-nonresponses.
Sheng-mac Hsu, Ph. D Candidate, Department of Political Science, National Cheng-Chi University.
Yung-tai Hung, Professor, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
Stratification, Sampling Error, and the Design Effect of the 2001 TEDS Sampling Design (in Chinese) Download
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Among many factors that accommodate research objectives and the efficiency of a survey design, stratification usually comes first. The 2001 TEDS Survey employed some multivariate techniques using ecological data from 359 townships in Taiwan for stratification. This article examines the stratification efficiency of the sampling design, estimates sampling errors for selected variables using independent half-sample method, and calculates design effect for inferential purposes and further usage.
Yung-Tai Hung, Professor, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
Yung-Cheng Huang, Technician, Election Study Center, National Chengchi University.
Telephone Sampling: Random Digit Dialing in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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The study compared two telephone-sampling methods, one is the typical directory-based systematic sampling with random number replacement of the last digit,and another is random digit dialing(RDD) using PPS method. Results showed that the RDD method performed well with its advantage on perfect coverage. The cost of lower contact rate due to broader coverage is not high, and there is no difference between the two methods in terms of sample's geographical representation.
Yung-Tai Hung, Research fellow, Election Study Center, National Chengchi University.
The Modernization of Campaign Strategy: A Case Study of 1997 Taoyuan County Magistrate Election (in Chinese) Download
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Managers of campaign headquarters often find it difficult to balance resource allocations between mobilization and propaganda divisions. The issue is critical in the battlefield but usually over-looked by academic circle. The study looks into the phenomenon using both aggregate and survey data and tries to explore the possibility of utilizing results of opinion polls for evaluating candidate performance. Analysis of aggregate data confirms the strength of mobilization but finds its role less significant. Its share of vote getting is shrinking as time changes. On the other hand, analysis of survey data shows that opinion polls can actually reflect the effectiveness of candidates' strategy in image building. However, if a re-search work want to get the most out of opinion polls it must plan ahead, hands in hands with campaign strategy, and put in more ingredients of network and communication behaviors.
The Use of Household Registration Records in Sampling Surveys (in Chinese)
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The study checks the accuracy of some items of the household registration records in Taiwan using data from the 1990 and the 1994 National Health Surveys and finds that the discrepancy rate between the marital status records and survey results is about 6.9%. There is also 25.6% inaccurate rate for the records of educational level. If counted by person, less than 90% of the people currently live in their registered households, over 10% of the people do not live in their registered households, and over 10% of the people live in places which they do not registered. If counted by household, only about 55% of the records are correct in both household registration and persons live in, other 45% are either greater or less than the registration record in terms of the number of people living in the household, or even the number is correct the persons' names do not match. This type of inaccuracy varies in different areas and also depends on the size of the household. The study also looks into the distribution of the household size using the 1990 census data and finds that it is not feasible to have a representative sample if households are selected first with equal prabability and one adult respondent is then selected within the household due to the fact that a large portion of the younger people are clustered in bigger size households which account for only a much smaller portion of the total number of the households.
Split Vote: An Analysis of the 1994 Taipei Election (in Chinese)
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