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3 article(s) found.
The Effect of Social Context on Individual Vote Choices: Evidence from Taiwan’s 2016 Presidential Election
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In recent years, the internet has become more and more important in elections.Since the internet has become a major source of information for voters whilst also providing a platform for people to discuss politics, it can be concluded that the internet has a major impact on voters’ decisions. Therefore, it has become important for more studies to be focused on this phenomenon. Due to the social nature of the internet with the fast-paced societal changes which it brings about, this study uses a sociological approach of voting behavior to understanding this phenomenon. However, this does not suggest that the internet and new social media are eclipsing the more traditional forms of social contexts. Instead, this study suggests that new social media and social contexts are indicative of new and interesting changes taking place.

This study concentrates on the 2016 presidential election and specifically looks
at different contextual factors. These include social environment, interpersonal discussion, traditional media and social media. This research conducted both a telephone survey and a web survey. After controlling for party identification, we find that interpersonal discussion and TV news have significant effects on voter choice in the telephone survey. Social media only showed their impact in the web survey. Ourresearch suggests that we cannot ignore social context factors.
Cheng-hao Pao, Associate Professor, Department of Global Political Economy at Tamkang University.
Ying-lung Chou, Assistant Professor, Department of Global Political Economy at Tamkang University (corresponding
Using Telephone Survey Sample Data as a Feasible Resolution to the Difficulty of Indigenous Survey (in Chinese) Download
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There is a lack of indigenous object research inside the nation, and the research is usually attached to national sample as one of the small sample analysis. The main reason is that with only about 2% of the country’s total population, indigenous population is rather few in Taiwan. Besides, uneven geographic distribution and the factor that a considerable number of workplace/residence and domicile difference due to livelihood are other reasons which cause difficulty to traditional method of investigation. Both face-to-face interview or telephone interview have handicap on sampling.However, public opinion polls had become more universal in recent years. Academic and private investigation agency all has accumulated a large number of successful phone survey samples, which contained numerous Han samples and certain proportion of indigenous samples. If there is a possibility to get these samples which were “not originally using indigenous population as statistic population, but contain successful indigenous samples,” and apply data mining technology to dig the “valuable mineral” out from a large amount of “useless” information, then it will be probable to directly filter out the indigenous samples that were needed, and solve the problems mentioned above in the context of saving cost.

In this view, the research team and Taiwan Real Survey Co. had cooperated and merged the successful indigenous population phone interview samples, which are from national samplings that were executed by the company since 2007 so far (March 2013), as indigenous telephone database. Preliminary research result shows, by using telephone interview sample database that was consolidated by data mining and double sampling, the characteristics of successful samples which got from the telephone interview are similar to the indigenous statistic population in the official population statistics. Other than that, including multi-year indigenous population phone data could enhance the collection range of the indigenous telephone database, and reduces the cost of sample acquisition.
Ying-Lung Chou, Ph. D. Student in the Department of political Science, National Chengchi University.
Shing-Yuan Sheng, Professor, Department of political Science, National Chengchi University.
Selection Bias Models on Election Prediction (in Chinese) Download
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When predicting elections, researchers always face the difficulty that some respondents do not answer the question of vote choice. However, including only those who give a clear answer on vote choice, researchers might have the problem of selection bias. This article tries to assess the effects of selection bias on vote choice model, correct the wrong estimates resulting from the bias, and predict elections accurately. In this article, we apply a bivariate selection bias model-- developed by Dubin and Rivers-- to five different elections. The research findings show that if researchers include only those respondents who give a clear answer on vote choice question, they might take a risk of overestimating the effects of independent variables on vote choice. This is because respondents who give a clear answer on the question of vote choice may also have definite and strong political preferences, and they are quite different from those who do not give a clear answer. After correcting the estimating errors resulting from selection bias, we might predict election outcome accurately. The largest predicting error in four elections is 1.16%. It is less than sampling error. The model cannot do a better job in only one election. Fortunately, it does not do a worse job, either. The overall result shows that the selection bias model is a reliable tool in predicting elections.