All Issues

1 article(s) found.
Wen-jong Juan,Professor, Department of Public Policy and Management, Shih Hsin University.
Mei-rong Linand, Associate Professor, Department of International Business, Tamkang University.
Yung-tai Hung, Retired Professor, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
A Demographic Analysis of Eligible Population and Voter Population under Different Sampling Frames: The Case of the 2016 Presidential Election Survey
* PDF file is not available right now.
Show abstract
Full content
The controversy over the authenticity of election polls or the representativeness of samples is the definition of “population” in election polls. Since voter turnout is not absolute, there is a difference between “eligible population” and “voter popula-tion”. Therefore, the demographic consistency between eligible population and voter population with different sample frames in election polls is a topic that has become crucial in survey methodology. The purpose of this study is threefold: (1) explor-ing the error of population coverage through reviewing the evolution of different sampling frames used in election polls in Taiwan; (2) clarifying the implication of eligible population and voter population in election studies and analyzing the 2016 presidential election campaign in Taiwan; (3) analyzing the difference of the polls conducted by TEDS for the 2016 presidential election by using different sample frames, and examining the effect of the weighting adjustment by population param-eters, and exploring its theoretical and practical implications.
This study found that there was a minor difference between the eligible popula-tion and the voter population in the 2016 presidential election in Taiwan. However, the polls from different sampling frames were not completely consistent with the polls from these two populations. The correction effect of the weighting adjustment by the different population parameter on voter turnout, vote gain, and encouraging voter participation is limited. Therefore, to resolve the gap between the poll results and the voting results, the definition of the population might not be critical. The selection of sample frames, the design of questionnaires, the improvement of inter-view skills, and the reduction of interview failures are more important factors.