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21 article(s) found.
Distinguished Research Fellow, Election Study Center and Taiwan Institute for Governance and Communication Research; Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University
Political Emotions and the 2016 Presidential Election in Taiwan Download
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This study will examine how emotions might affect people’s choice of vote. I will employ the 2016 Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS 2016) to see how voters’ emotions toward major presidential candidates affect their vote choices. Previous research argues that some positive emotions, such as hope and pride, and some negative emotions, such as anxiety and fear, might play critical roles in shaping citizens’ opinions. For an open-seat presidential election, looking forward and reasoning back, voters employ hopeful and fearful emotions to make their voting decisions. As expected, voters with a fearful feeling toward Tsai Ing-wen are less likely to support her. We also find that those who are angry with Chu Li-luan tend not to vote for him. Emotions shed some light on our understanding of voting behavior in Taiwan.
Cody Wai-kwok Yau, Ph. D. Candidate, Institute of Political Science, National Sun Yat-Sen University.
The Meaning of “Taiwanese”: Conceptualizing the Components of Taiwanese National Identity (in English) Download
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One of the problems with empirical studies of Taiwanese/Chinese identity in Taiwan is the use of over-simplified measurements based on responses to a question involving three choices: is your nationality Taiwanese, Chinese, or both? This study attempts to produce a new model with a more fine-grained conceptualization of national identity in Taiwan. The model is derived from Rawi Abdelal et al.’s idea of social identity, and applies Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) to survey data, to develop a social psychological framework using three independent latent variables: “national norms,”“national closeness,” and “national purposes,” and a single dependent latent variable: “state identity.” The results of this re-analysis show all three of the independent variables have significant positive correlations with the dependent variable “state identity.” Of the independent variables, national norms has the highest total effect.

For respondents self-identifying as Taiwanese (T respondents) and respondents self-identifying as Chinese (C respondents), there were significant differences in two dimensions: national purposes and national norms. The strength of T respondents’ national purposes is higher than C respondents while the strength of C respondents’ national norms is higher than T respondents. In addition, a comparison of total effect value and outer weight found that T respondents and respondents self-identifying as both Taiwanese and Chinese (B respondents) also differed. Both T and B respondents stress on “state-building,” a component of the latent variable national purposes. For the dependent variable state identity, however, B and T respondents differ. T respondents take a pro-Taiwan and anti-unification stance. B respondents, however, take a pro-“Republic of China” and prodemocratic unification stance. Variables such as age, education, and social contacts all have moderating effects for both T and B respondents but not great enough to change the path direction.
Shih-chan Dai, Ph.D. student, Department of Political Science, University of Massachusetts Amherst, U.S.
Coming out of Silence: Candidates’ Stances on LGBT Rights in Taiwan’s 2014 Municipal Councilor Elections (in English) Download
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Although public opinion in Taiwan is increasingly in favor of gay rights, there is no corresponding trend at the elite level and no concrete policy changes have been achieved. Based on the logic of electoral competition and political socialization, this paper takes the 2014 elections for municipal councilors in Taiwan as an example and examines the factors influencing support for LGBT equality among local politicians. Theoretically, although the centrifugal effect of the SNTV system motivates candidates of the same party to differ from each other on a variety of issues, political socialization, on the contrary, encourages a more unified issue stance taken among party members. The results of multilevel models suggest that there is little linkage between the characteristics of constituents, the electoral rule, and candidates’ stances on gay rights. However, both partisanship and age play an indispensable role. Candidates who are members of the DPP or one of the liberal parties are more likely to support LGBT rights than their KMT counterparts.
Ming-tong Chen, Professor, Graduate Institute of National Development, National Taiwan University.
Shi-huei Yang, Ph.D. candidate, Graduate Institute of National Development, National Taiwan University.
Spill-over Effects of the “Ko Wen-je Phenomenon” in Taiwan’s 2014 Local Elections: Case Study of Potential Coattail Effects on DPP Hsinchu City Mayoral Candidate Lin Chi-jian (in Chinese) Download
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In nation-wide local elections held on November 29, 2014, the Kuomintang (KMT) suffered its worst defeat in the post-war history of local elections in Taiwan. The party saw its control of the country’s 22 local executive posts dwindle from 15 to only 6. Most notable among the KMT’s setbacks was its mayoral election defeat in the Taipei City, which had been run by a KMT mayor for 16 years. Ko Wen-je, an independent who ran under the banner of a “grand opposition alliance,” defeated KMT candidate Sean Lien by nearly 250,000 votes. The KMT’s post-election review report pointed to spill-over effects from the Taipei election to other local contests as one of the reasons for its crushing defeat nation-wide.

Did the “Ko Wen-je phenomenon” truly produce such spill-over effects? This study looks at the Hsinchu City mayoral election, using various empirical data to assess potential spill-over effects from Ko’s Taipei candidacy to that of DPP Hsinchu City mayoral candidate Lin Chi-jian. Hierarachical non-linear modeling is applied to analyze a combination of individual-level and macro-level data. The data analysis shows that with respect to individual-level variables, voters’ preference for Lin Chi-jian, party-orientation, and age clearly influenced the level of support for Lin’s candidacy. At the macro-level, support for Lin was positively correlated with Ko Wen-je’s level of support and media exposure as well as positive commentary on Ko’s candidacy on television news programs. The results of the study confirm the existence of coattail effects of the Ko Wen-je phenomenon in Taiwan’s 2014 local elections.
Chih-cheng Meng, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science and Graduate Institute of Political Economy,
National Cheng Kung University.
The Issue Effect of the "92 Consensus" on 2012 Taiwan Presidential Election: An Application and Empirical Assessment of Propensity Score Matching (in Chinese) Download
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News and many public comments indicate that the “92 consensus” was the crucial issue to affect the result of Taiwan 2012 presidential election. This paper aims to study the effect of the 92 consensus on voters’ choices in 2012. This paper reviews the core assumptions, boundary of application and analytical methods of the “issue voting” theory. Moreover, it focus on studying the impacts of the 92 consensus that are presumed to be endogenously correlated with party identification. Based on the approach of “studying the effects of a cause”, as well as using the “2012 Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study” dataset (TEDS2012-T and TEDS2012), this paper applies “propensity score matching” (PSM) method to investigate the issue effect of the “92 consensus” on voting choices during 2012 election.

The results from the data analysis demonstrate that positions supportive of the “92 consensus” account for about twenty percent of supporting rates to pro-Ma voters in the period of the electoral campaign; meanwhile, positions oppositional to the “92 consensus” would contribute about thirteen percent of supporting rates for pro-Tsai voters. After the election the influential probability of the “92 consensus” was dramatically downsized to ten percent of supporting rates to pro-Ma voters; however, the percentage for pro-Tsai voters was slightly reduced to twelve percent. These findings provide more valid and credible estimates toward the influential probability of the “92 consensus” issue during the 2012 elections. Moreover, the statistical findings over various time-points also verify the successful transformation of the “92 consensus” to be identified as a salient issue across pro-Ma and pro-Tsai voters. It indeed achieved substantial influences toward the processes and result of 2012 presidential election.
Chiung-chu Lin, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, Soochow University.
Change and Continuity: An Analysis of Taiwanese/Chinese Identity and Position on the Cross-Straight Relations (in Chinese) Download
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This paper aims to examine the test-retest reliability of two important political attitudes, i.e. Taiwanese/Chinese identity and issue of Unification/ Independence (UI issue), among the Taiwanese electorate by analyzing the 2004-2008 panel data from the Taiwan Election and Democratization Study. This paper further explores the socio-demographic factors that might affect the consistence of one's Taiwanese/Chinese identity and the position of the issue of Unification/Independence. This paper then examines the relationship between the two political attitudes.The findings suggest that one's Taiwanese/Chinese identity demonstrates higher stability than his/her position on the UI issue. People who identified themselves as Chinese changed to having a ”joint identity”. Those who hold a ”joint identity” have changed to identified themselves as Taiwanese. The factors that affect one's attitude consistency include education, political generation and China experience. Those with less education, the oldest generation and have been to China are more likely to change their attitudes. Moreover, findings from the statistical model show that one's Taiwanese/Chinese identity influences one's position on the UI issue.
James Yu-chan Lin, Producer and Anchorman, News Department, Taiwan Television Enterprise, Ltd.
Ven-hwei Lo, Professor, School of Journalism, The Chinese University of Hong Kong.
Partisan Bias in Taiwan Television Enterprise's Coverage of the Four Presidential Elections in Taiwan: 1996-2008 (in Chinese) Download
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This study examines how Taiwan Television Enterprise reported the campaign and candidates during the 1996, 2000, 2004, and 2008 presidential elections in Taiwan. A content analysis of evening election news of the television company indicated that there were significant quantity bias, source bias, and presentation bias in its coverage of the first three presidential election campaigns. However, the television company was more balanced in its coverage of the 2008 presidential campaign. An in-depth interview of 10 reporters of the television company indicated that ownership structure has direct or indirect influence on election coverage of the television company. The change of ownership of the television company in 2007 has contributed to the achievement of more balanced media coverage in the 2008 presidential election.
Lu-huei Chen, Research Fellow, Election Study Center, National Chengchi University.
Shu Keng, Associate Professor, Graduate Institute of East Asian Studies, National Chengchi University.
T. Y. Wang, Professor, Department of Politics & Government, Illinois State University.
Taiwan's 2008 Presidential Election and Its Implications on Cross-Strait Relations: The Effects of Taiwanese Identity, Trade Interests and Military Threats (in Chinese) Download
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Based on the analysis of survey data collected on the eve of Taiwan's 2008 presidential election, our study seeks to clarify the effects of the following factors on the island citizens' voting behavior: (1)Taiwanese identity, (2)expected benefits from cross-Strait economic exchanges, and (3)the perceived likelihood of China's use of military force. The findings show that, in addition to party identification, both Taiwanese identity and expected economic benefits have important effects on the islanders' vote choices. Unexpectedly, China's military threats played an insignificant role in voters' decisions. Because Taiwanese identity and expected economic benefits are at the center of the political discourse on cross-Strait relations, future interactions between Taiwan and China will continue to play a significant role in the island's politics.
Su-feng Cheng, Associate Research Fellow, Election Study Center, National Chengchi University.
Ethnicity, Identity, and Vote Choice in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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Ethnic and identity problems are important issues in modern Taiwanese politics. This paper examines Taiwanese identity from the aspect of ethnic and identity theory. The author develops a ”Taiwanese consciousness” index to explore the effect of identity in the past four presidential elections. The results show that Taiwanese consciousness has increased year by year, with more than half (54.7%) of Taiwan voters now classified into the high level of Taiwanese consciousness. The data also show that people with different degrees of Taiwanese consciousness vote differently and are increasingly polarized around identity. People with high-level Taiwanese consciousness tend to vote for pan-green candidates, while people with lowlevel Taiwanese consciousness tend to vote for pan-blue candidates. The data also indicate that the support bases of different parties are quite different. Votes for pan-green candidates mostly come from people with high-level Taiwanese consciousness, and this fraction has steadily increased; at the same time, support for pan-blue candidates has fallen significantly among this group. The analysis shows that partisan identification performs better than the ”Taiwanese consciousness” index at predicting vote choice, but the ”Taiwanese consciousness” index still has additional explanatory power. This paper also finds that the effect of ”sengi” (voters' provincial background) is not significant in the four presidential elections after controlling for other variables. This result suggests that the identity issue in Taiwan is now more an expression of ideological differences than ethnic ones.
Ding-ming Wang, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
Ming-feng Kuo, Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
Voting Behavior under Mixed Electoral System: A Comparison between Taiwan and Japan during the Electoral Transition (in Chinese) Download
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Mixed or Hybrid electoral system, a combination of single-member district with plurality (SMD) and proportional representation (PR), has drawn a lot of attention from all over the world in the past few years. Recent studies have focused on its characters and classifications, its impact on the diversified social development, the connection with strategic voting behavior, the interaction with the campaign strategy and party competition, and the formulation of new party system. Based on the survey conducted by Japanese Election Study (JES) and Taiwanese Election and Democratization Study (TEDS), we compare the dynamic voting behaviors between Japan and Taiwan, since both of them follow the same routine of electoral transformation from SNTV to Mixed system.

The results show there do have some difference, especially the ticket splitting of the two ballots and the voting stability during system transition, between two countries. From the cross sectional data analysis, we find KMT and DPP received more consistent support in two separate ballots, comparing with the major parties in Japan. As for the panel data results, the convergence to major parties is confirmed in both countries while the trend is more obvious in Taiwan once again. In short, we find the small parties in Taiwan have relative little room for competition, comparing with those in Japan, under new Mixed system. The formulation of two party system is quite noticeable in Taiwan.