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4 article(s) found.
Associate Professor, Center of Holistic Education, Mackay Medical College; Undergraduate student, Mackay Medical College; Professor, Department of Public Policy and Management, Shih Hsin University. (corresponding author)
Estimating the Sincerity of Taiwan Voters: A Model Building Process and Empirical Analysis Download
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Along with the democratic development of Taiwanese politics and the diversification of information channels, voters now have access to abundant information prior to elections. Owing to this, the final decision of some voters might be swayed by changes in public opinion polls or by the collective will of groups of people. The actual vote of these citizens may not be what they originally preferred, which cannot be characterized as sincere voting behavior. In the investigation of different types of non-sincere voting behavior, strategic voting is undoubtedly a major research issue among scholars of election studies delving into voter psychology. Strategic voting primarily refers to voters who decide to cast their votes for candidates with better prospects of winning so as to avoid “wasting” their vote. Past overseas literature has confirmed that whether in single-member districts or in proportional representation or multi-member districts, strategic voting has been observed among voters. As for academia in Taiwan, increasing effort has been made in recent years to study strategic voting that may take place in domestic elections, and the definition and measurement of related concepts, such as the effect of split-ticket and party voting. Most studies, however, are confined to observing the results of split-ticket voting, from which they surmise the possibility of strategic voting. In fact, the actual motivation for strategic voting may be very diverse, but the definition of sincere voting is relatively clear and uncontroversial.
Instead, this study attempts to base itself mainly on post election panel records provided by Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS), together with an integrated consideration of a pre- and post-election survey and a comparison of election outcomes. With Taiwan’s 2012 presidential cum-parliamentary elections as the source of empirical evidence, this study adopts counterfactual reasoning and literature on the random utility model, applying them to revise the survey results of the original poll data so as to estimate a reasonable proportion of actual sincere voting. Furthermore, it sums up important characteristics of sincere voters who had different vote choices and demonstrated the subtle differences between split-ticket voting, sincere voting and strategic voting. Finally, the study discusses the various statistical differences between these three voting behaviors.
Shun-chuan Chang, Assistant Professor, Holistic Education Center, Mackay Medical College.
Wen-jong Juang, Professor and Chair, Department of Public Policy and Management, Shin Hsin University(corresponding author).
Transcending Ideological Barriers for Voting? New Applications of Political Territory Analysis in the 2014 Taipei City Mayoral Election (in Chinese) Download
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The 2014 Taipei City mayoral election was overwhelmingly won by a grass-roots candidate, Dr. Wen-je Ko, who has been regarded as "Deep Green" in terms of Taiwan's political spectrum, but promoted the slogan "One City One Family" for new white power in this campaign. The rooted voting behaviors described by traditional political territories in Taipei City were supposed to be on the verge of imminent collapse, and whether the signal of transcending ideological barriers for voting in this case was grounded in reality or myth, is still worth exploring. This study conducted several tests for trend analyses used in nonparametric statistics and interpreted new applications based on political territory in this mayoral election. Furthermore, this study has three primary innovative perspectives. First, based on the voting database from the Central Election Commission for election studies, this study can explain how to utilize the basic unit of household address, such as Li, for building political territories, and our models presented the grouping political spectrum structures of voting behaviors of voters living in Taipei City by clustering analysis. This study can also develop a more novel approach to the combination of domestic political territory research and trend analyses embedded in nonparametric statistics, such as the Mann-Kendall test, the Theil-Sen's slope estimator, and Pettit test statistics for change-point detection, which are all adapted to analyze the trend characteristics for changing voting behaviors in Taipei City. Finally, based on built political territories, and linked with relevant concepts of political polarization, political party identity, and allocation effects when political parties drum up votes, the research results can determine and gain insight into the transcending of ideological barriers for voting in the 2014 Taipei City mayoral election.
Shun-chuan Chang, Assistant Professor, Holistic Education Center, Mackay Medical College.
Wen-jong Juang, Associate Professor and Chair, Department of Public Policy and Management, Shin Hsin University.
Cheng-hsiang Chang, Master of Department of Public Policy and Management, Shin Hsin University.
Understanding Party Vote Share and Split Voting: An Application of Bland-Altman Difference Plot and Political Relative Development Index (in Chinese) Download
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Taiwan has been under electoral reforms in recent years: Legislator election in 2008 started to adopt “single-district two votes system”. Combined legislative and presidential elections in 2012 allowed voters to vote for president, at-large legislators and local legislators concurrently for the first time, offering a great opportunity to study party vote share and split voting in general elections. There were practical researches on split voting, some of which analyse micro information from polls, and some are based on the macro data of votes in elections. However, these studies took into consideration neither the size of eligible voters in districts nor the ratio of national votes to regional votes a party or candidate get, which thus makes it hard to determine the correlation between split voting, the size of electoral districts and a party’s real political power strength.

This study attempts to examine party vote share and split voting from a novel perspective on proposing a new measurement and exemplifying with the general election in Taiwan in 2012. The research started with calculating the vote share of the Pan-Blue Coalition, the Pan-Green Coalition and each party in 368 administrative districts and gauging the voting gap with a traditional inspection method. Secondly, we tried to use a Bland-Altman difference plot to show the pattern of split voting by districts since every party’s ability to gain votes varies with areas. Thirdly, we discussed the strengths and inadequacies of the application to Bland-Altman difference. And then, the political relative development index, BDI and CDI, are introduced as the new framework for ascertaining party vote share and
measuring split voting to decide the relative level of voters’ support for some party, the Pan-Blue Coalition or the Pan-Green Coalition. Finally, the result from the new measurement is compared with that from the traditional method to validate the performance of the new approach, as well as to indicate future
research direction.
Shun-Chuan Chang, Ph. D Candidate of Graduate Institute of Business and Management, National Chiao Tung University.
Wen-Jong Juang, Assistant Professor of Department of Public Policy and Managemet, Shih Hsin University.
Change in Voting Behaviour: Applying an Election Forecasting Model of Probability Distributions to Modify the Accuracy of Poll Outcomes (in Chinese) Download
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Due to undervotes, misvotes, or switchvotes bias, many polling data users felt frustrated in using the past polling outcome to forecast the new election. It is commonplace for voters to note an early frontrunner in polls will be doomed to fall in the real election outcome. A beta-binominal distribution is suggested to model the accuracy of early poll outcome which strategically influences the polling data users such as political parties, candidates, and mass media in implementing the election campaign. We demonstrate the advantages of probabilistic distribution and Bayesian reasoning, and how to estimate the parameters from past data, in modifying the accuracy of prior poll outcomes. In comparison with the traditional frequency approach, beta-binominal mixture distribution imposes a statistical-adjusting framework with ability to proportionate a coherent mechanism that synthesizes the performances of prior votes. The empirical data sets include the 2004 US presidential election in Atlas Web and TVBS polls in 2006 Kaohsiung mayor election and 2008 presidential election in Taiwan. This paper describes the general fitting of beta-binomial distribution on both datasets and discusses fruitful avenues for future research.