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9 article(s) found.
Shing-yuan Sheng, Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Stability and Change of Party Identification among Taiwanese Voters: A Panel Data Analysis (in Chinese) Download
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This research utilizes the 2004-2008 panel data to examine the stability and change of party identification among Taiwanese voters. Several findings are worth highlighting: First, individuals' present party identification is affected by previous party identification, as well as evaluations on the parties and political elites, and issue positions. This shows that party identification of Taiwanese voters is affected by both forces of stability and change. Second, the effect of the previous party identification on the present party identification is different across generations: it is the largest on the first generation, the second on the second generation, and the smallest on the third generation. Third, 61.3 percent of voters continue their party identification. For those who change their party identification, most of them are from a small party to a large party. Also noteworthy is when they change their party identification, they change according to the blue-green boundary. Therefore, I argue that the blue-green dimension, or the KMT-DPP dimension, based on the ethnic groups and independence-unification issue, is the target of party identification. This is based on experiences of political socialization when voters first entered into the political arena. Furthermore, this blue-green dimension is possibly reinforced by the new electoral system. Therefore, under the circumstance that the electoral system stabilizes and no new issue emerges, the party identification of Taiwanese voters helps to shape a two party system.
Ying-Lung Chou, Ph. D. Student in the Department of political Science, National Chengchi University.
Shing-Yuan Sheng, Professor, Department of political Science, National Chengchi University.
Selection Bias Models on Election Prediction (in Chinese) Download
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When predicting elections, researchers always face the difficulty that some respondents do not answer the question of vote choice. However, including only those who give a clear answer on vote choice, researchers might have the problem of selection bias. This article tries to assess the effects of selection bias on vote choice model, correct the wrong estimates resulting from the bias, and predict elections accurately. In this article, we apply a bivariate selection bias model-- developed by Dubin and Rivers-- to five different elections. The research findings show that if researchers include only those respondents who give a clear answer on vote choice question, they might take a risk of overestimating the effects of independent variables on vote choice. This is because respondents who give a clear answer on the question of vote choice may also have definite and strong political preferences, and they are quite different from those who do not give a clear answer. After correcting the estimating errors resulting from selection bias, we might predict election outcome accurately. The largest predicting error in four elections is 1.16%. It is less than sampling error. The model cannot do a better job in only one election. Fortunately, it does not do a worse job, either. The overall result shows that the selection bias model is a reliable tool in predicting elections.
Shing-yuan Sheng, Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Yih-yan Chen, Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Political Cleavage and Party Competition: An Analysis of the 2001 Legislative Yuan Election (in Chinese) Download
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The major purpose of this article is to search for the political cleavages which shaping the party competition in Taiwan in the 2001 legislative Yuan election. We establish four criteria for an issue to be political cleavage.

First, most people perceive the issue and are able to put themselves and the major parties on the continuum based on the issue.

Second, most people perceive that major parties take different positions on the issue. If most parties take the same position on the issue, the issue cannot be a salient political cleavage.

Third, most people take the position on the issue according to their social characteristics. In other words, most people consider the situations of themselves and their groups so as to take particular positions, rather than take positions randomly.

Fourth, most people identify a party or vote for a party according to the positions the party takes on the issues.

The research findings show that the ethnic differences, national identity and authoritarian /democratic values are the most important political cleavages, and have considerable impacts on party competition. The reformation/stability issue has some impacts, and is the second most important political cleavage. However, the social welfare issue and environmental protection/economic development issue are still not so salient in Taiwan.
Shing-Yuan Sheng, Associate Professor, Dept. of Political Science,National Chengchi University.
The Issue Taiwan Independence vs. Unification with the Mainland and Voting Behavior in Taiwan: An Analysis in the 1990s (in Chinese) Download
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The purpose of this research is to examine how the issue Taiwan independence versus unification with the Mainland (hereinafter the TI-UM issue) affects Taiwan's politics through elections in the 1990s. To achieve this purpose, this article deals with three major issues. The first is to show how the TI-UM issue emerges and evolves in Taiwan's political arena. The second is to show how voters' position on the TI-UM issue affects their voting behavior, and how these effects differ across different elections. The third is to show what the determinants are and how the determinants affect voters' position on the TI-UM issue. This research focuses on five elections across different periods of time. They are gubernatorial and mayoral elections in 1994, legislator's elections in 1995 and 1998, and presidential elections in 1996 and 2000. The data used in this research are the post-election face-to-face interviews conducted by the Election Study Center in National Chengchi University.
Shing-Yuan Sheng, Associate professor, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Party-oriented or Constituency-oriented? A Study on Representative Orientations and Representative Behavior of Taiwan's Legislators (in Chinese) Download
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Party and constituency are two major forces faced by legislators. They influence legislators' representative behavior in different degrees and in different ways. This paper examines how these two forces influence Taiwanese legislators' representative styles and behavior. Research findings show that the representative styles of Taiwan's legislators have changed radically since the mid-1980s.Many legislators changed from a party-oriented style to a constituency-oriented style. This paper suggests a possible reason for this radical change. Legislators have to build their personal vote because they face intensive party competition resulted from the emergence of an opposition party, the DPP. The legislators under a single non-transferable vote system cannot count only on their party to get re-election. Most of them have to show their distinctive characteristics and hard-working in the legislative Yuan and in their constituency. They may even deviate from the party line to get attention and support from their constituencies sometimes. Based on a case study on the third term of legislators, this research has several findings. First, approximately two-thirds of the legislators are constituency-oriented, and less than one-third of the legislators are party-oriented. Secondly, the representative orientations of legislators affect their representative behavior profoundly. Party-oriented legislators make more efforts in the law-making process, while constituency-oriented legislators make more efforts in their constituencies. Meanwhile, the party-oriented legislators follow the party line more than their constituency-oriented fellows do. Thirdly, the representative orientations of individual legislators are affected by their vote-getting styles, party affiliation, and constituency styles. The legislators who rely more on their constituency than party to get re-election, the legislators of KMT, and the legislators from homogeneous constituencies, are more likely to be constituency-oriented.
Shing-Yuan Sheng, Associate Professor Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Law-Making and Constituency Service: A Study on Representative Behavior of Taiwan's Legislators Elected in 1995 (in Chinese) Download
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This paper examines representative behavior of Taiwan's legislators and the reasons for their representative behavior. The representative behavior is divided into two categories: activities in the Legislative Yuan and activities in constituencies. Some researchers argue that these two categories of representative behavior are a trade-off, because legislators' resources are limited. Others argue that making efforts on one of these two categories of activities may reduce pressure from the other one. However, this paper indicates that these two arguments are not true for Taiwan's legislators. Based on a survey on legislators' assistants and a content analysis up-on Legislative gazettes, this paper shows that the relationship of these two categories of behavior is not necessarily negative. That is to say, the legislators who make efforts in the Legislative Yuan may not necessarily ignore the constituencies. On the contrary, the legislators who make efforts in the constituencies may not necessarily ignore the activities in the Legislative Yuan.Secondly, the research findings indicate that individual legislators must have some expectations on their representative roles, and hence these expectations affect their choices on legislative career, either pays more attention to law-making or to constituency services. Meanwhile, these expectations are affected by the factors related to legislators' party, constituency, and their own political purposes and resources. Furthermore, comparing these influential factors, I find that the factors related to the constituency are the most important. The legislators whose votes are concentrated on a certain part of the electoral district tend to make more efforts in constituencies. On the other hand, the legislators whose votes are scattered across the electoral district tend to make more efforts in the Legislative Yuan. Meanwhile, the research findings show that the following factors affect legislators' representative behavior: party affiliation, the degree of intra-party competition, political purposes, seniority, whether holding a party position, and the activities in committees.
Parties’ Vote-Equalizing Strategies and Their Impacts under a SNTV Electoral System: A Study on Taiwan’s Legislative Elections from 1983 to 1995 (in Chinese)
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This paper examines the major parties’ vote-equalizing strategies and the impacts of these strategies on candidates’ vote-distribution under a SNTV electoral system. From this perspective, this study tries to observe party competition and party politics in Taiwan since the 1980s. Based on a study on legislative elections from 1983 to 1995, this paper shows some research findings. First, the KMT uses the local factions and “responsibility zone system” to mobilize and allocate potential votes to her candidates. Therefore, the vote-distribution of the KMT candidates tends to be concentrated on some parts of the electoral district. On the other hand, the DPP and NP cannot be helped by the local organizations so that the vote shares of their candidates tend to be scattered across the district. Secondly, from a longitudinal perspective, the vote shares of the KMT candidates are getting scattered. This tendency has become evident since the end of the 1980s, when the opposition parties were gradually organized and institutionalized. Thirdly, the influence of the local factions has gradually become weak because of the development of social economy and the emergence of the opposition parties. All of these tendencies show that the KMT’s campaign system which depends on vote allocation, local factions and grass-root organizations has become shaky.
Voting Decision and Election Prediction (in Chinese)
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This paper examines the process of voters’ voting decision and develops a way of predicting voters’ voting decision. Most surveys on election predication are based on respondents' answers on their vote choices. However, this paper indicates two serious problems in this way of election prediction. One problem comes from the indecision of most voters, and the other problem comes from measurement errors. To deal with this problem, this paper provides a way of estimating each voter’s probabilities of voting for each candidate. The author indicates that the probability of voting for a particular candidate is not 0, neither is 1. Instead, the probability of voting for a particular candidate range from 0 to 1. The author bases on four major variables-- candidate evaluations, party identification, incumbent government satisfaction, and ethnicity-- to construct a vote choice model, and estimates the model by the way of a multinomial logit model. Then, the author calculates individual voters’ probabilities of voting for each of the candidates. The research finding shows that the chance of voting for a particular candidate is large if a voter has a high probability of voting for the candidate. Based on this principle, the paper predicts the outcomes of four elections and two of them are quite accurate.
Selection Bias in Vote Choice Models (in English)
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