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10 article(s) found.
Distinguished Research Fellow, Election Study Center and Taiwan Institute for Governance and Communication Research; Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University
Political Emotions and the 2016 Presidential Election in Taiwan Download
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This study will examine how emotions might affect people’s choice of vote. I will employ the 2016 Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS 2016) to see how voters’ emotions toward major presidential candidates affect their vote choices. Previous research argues that some positive emotions, such as hope and pride, and some negative emotions, such as anxiety and fear, might play critical roles in shaping citizens’ opinions. For an open-seat presidential election, looking forward and reasoning back, voters employ hopeful and fearful emotions to make their voting decisions. As expected, voters with a fearful feeling toward Tsai Ing-wen are less likely to support her. We also find that those who are angry with Chu Li-luan tend not to vote for him. Emotions shed some light on our understanding of voting behavior in Taiwan.
Lu-huei Chen, Distinguished Research Fellow, Election Study Center / Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Ying-nan Chen, Ph. D., Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Political Emotions and their Effects on Cross- Strait Economic Exchange: A Study of College Students in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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During the impressionable years of college students, their political orientations are still amenable. Therefore, exploring the political attitudes of college students sheds light on our understanding of Taiwan’s electoral politics. Beginning from the Sunflower Movement in 2014, college students’ attitudes toward cross-Strait relations has attracted the public’s attention. This study argues that we have to take political emotions into consideration when we analyze college students’ attitudes on cross-Srait relations. We employ panel studies to examine how political emotions affect their stances on cross-Strait economic exchange. We demonstrate that when college students feel enthusiasm toward Taiwan or feel hopeful toward Mainland China, they are more likely to support cross-Strait economic exchange. However, students with feelings of anxiety tend to urge the government to take strict measures on cross-Strait economic exchanges. As for students with a hopeful attitude toward Mainland China, they are willing to support the Cross-Strait Service and Trade Agreement, but those who harbor feelings of anger toward Mainland China tend to be opposed to this agreement. Therefore, this study shows that political emotions play an important role in college students’ attitudes toward cross-Strait relations.
Lu-huei Chen, Research Fellow, Election Study Center, National Chengchi University.
Shu Keng, Associate Professor, Graduate Institute of East Asian Studies, National Chengchi University.
T. Y. Wang, Professor, Department of Politics & Government, Illinois State University.
Taiwan's 2008 Presidential Election and Its Implications on Cross-Strait Relations: The Effects of Taiwanese Identity, Trade Interests and Military Threats (in Chinese) Download
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Based on the analysis of survey data collected on the eve of Taiwan's 2008 presidential election, our study seeks to clarify the effects of the following factors on the island citizens' voting behavior: (1)Taiwanese identity, (2)expected benefits from cross-Strait economic exchanges, and (3)the perceived likelihood of China's use of military force. The findings show that, in addition to party identification, both Taiwanese identity and expected economic benefits have important effects on the islanders' vote choices. Unexpectedly, China's military threats played an insignificant role in voters' decisions. Because Taiwanese identity and expected economic benefits are at the center of the political discourse on cross-Strait relations, future interactions between Taiwan and China will continue to play a significant role in the island's politics.
Lu-huei Chen, Assistant Research Fellow, Election Study Center, National Chengchi University, Taiwan.
Su-feng Cheng, Assistant Research Fellow, Election Study Center, National Chengchi University, Taiwan.
The Study of Correlations among Interview Language Usage and Political Attitudes in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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In this paper, we examine how different dialects used in survey research, and present how language usage might be correlated with people’s national identity and Taiwan independence preference. It was shown that people’s national identity was correlated with language used in face-to-face interviews. People speaking Taiwanese dialect were more likely to identify themselves as Taiwanese, and people speaking Mandarin were more likely to identify themselves as Chinese. It indicated that language used by people’s daily life conversation might be a cue for their national identity. Therefore, national identity is more likely to connect with cultural dimension. However, in surveys, there was no connection between language usage and people’s preference on Taiwan independence issue.

From our findings, comparing with people’s “Taiwanese/Chinese” identity, people’s preference toward unification with mainland China or Taiwan independence is more likely to be a rational choice between two alternatives. For students of survey research and political identities research in Taiwan, our research findings are very constructive.
Lu-huei Chen, Assistant Research Fellow, Election Study Center, National Chengchi Uni­versity, Taiwan.
Political Trust and Voting Behavior in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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In this paper, we employ longitudinal data to explore the change and continuity of political trust among the electorate in Taiwan. After the 2000 presidential election, whether the distribution of political trust will follow the rotation of ruling power is our research interest. We also would like to explore which factors affect people's political trust, and how political trust might affect people's voting behavior. By employing 1992, 1995, 1998, and 2001 face-to face interviews after legislative elections, we are able to explore the change and continuity of people's political trust in Taiwan.

From our findings, we showed that the distribution of people's political trust declined during 1992 and 1998. However, as the 2001 survey data showed, people's political trust rebounded after the 2000 presidential election. Among factors affected people's political trust, people's partisan preference toward the KMT, voters among the first generation, people with elementary school education were more likely to have higher level of political trust between 1992 and 1998. However, people with the DPP or the NP partisan preference were more likely to have lower level of political trust. After the 2000 presidential election, people with the DPP partisan preference changed their level of political trust, and became more likely to trust the ruling authorities. We also demonstrated that people with higher level of political trust were more likely to support the ruling party in the legislative elections.
Lu-Huei Chen, assistant research fellow of Election Study Center, National Chengchi University, Taiwan.
Change and Continuity of Party Identification among the Electorate in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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I demonstrated change and continuity of party identification among the electorate in Taiwan by examining longitudinal survey data, and exploring factors affected people's party identification among different political generations. It was shown that voters among three generations had stable partisan affiliation toward the KMT in 1992, 1995, and 1998.Voters among elder generations had more stable party identification than voters among younger generation. As to the DPP supporters, the proportions increased continuously between 1992 and 1998, but the proportion of the DPP supporters was the lowest among voters of elder generation.

When people's ethnic backgrounds were considered, I find that the distribution of the KMT identifiers was very stable among Taiwanese(Min-nan-jun),and the proportion of the DPP supporters among Taiwanese increased continuously. However, two new parties, i. e., the DPP and the NP, were less likely to attract first-generation Taiwanese. Few second-generation Taiwanese preferred the NP, but they were more likely to support the DPP than the KMT in 1998. Among Taiwanese, third-generation voters were more likely to support the NP. As to mainlanders, there were more than 80% of them identified themselves as the KMT partisans, the proportion decreased to 40% in 1995 but it rebounded to 60% in 1998.The proportion of the DPP partisans among mainlanders was less than 5% between 1992 and 1998.The proportion of the NP identifiers fluctuated dramatically among mainlanders between 1995 and 1998.

As to voters among three political generations, I demonstrated that Chinese identity was an important factor to determine first-generation voters' KMT identification. First-generation voters decided their DPP identification by their Taiwan-independence stance. As to voters among second generation, their stances on the issue of unification with mainland China versus Taiwan independence tended to determine whether they identified themselves as KMT or as DPP partisans. As voters among third generation, they were more likely to employ their Taiwan-independence stance and Taiwanese identity to decide whether they want to support the DPP.
Su-Feng Cheng, Assistant Research fellow of Election Study Center, National Chengchi University.
Lu-Huei Chen, Assistant Research fellow of Election Study Center, National Chengchi University.
Attitudes on Survey Participation and Its Change in Taiwan: 1986-1998 (in Chinese) Download
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In Taiwan, researchers and scholars widely use survey data to conduct research analysis, construct theories, and test hypotheses. However, problems came from process of data collection seldom been noticed. From the perspective of survey research methodology, this paper examined people's attitudes on survey participation in Taiwan between 1986 and 1998. This research showed that, in Taiwan, people became less likely to participate in survey interview even political environment became more democratic and open in the last decade. Among people who did not participate in survey, one quarter of them can not be reached by interviewers, and one out off our can be reached but refused to participate in survey. Worthy to be noticed is that the ratio of” refuse to be interviewed ”increased gradually. Compared with survey topic on ”election studies”, survey topic on ”relation between Taiwan and Mainland China” received higher refusal rate. This paper indicated that the response rate of sensitive questions was influenced by respondents' demographic background and level of information they had. Men, youths, mainlanders, high-educated,and party identifiers were more likely to answer the sensitive question-whom did you vote for-in this research. Type of elections also played a role on response rate. In the survey on presidential election and gubernatorial/mayoral election, non-response rates on reporting preferential candidates were lower than non-response rates in legislative elections. Therefore,the difference of electoral system between single member district and SNTV might affect non-response rates. Several methodological suggestions are also presented for future survey participation research.
Mortality: The Threat to the Validity of Panel Studies (in Chinese) Download
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Mortality is a problem when it exits differential loss of respondents during our panel studies. By examining the 1990 - 1992 NES panel studies, I demonstrate that there were significant differences between the panel sample and the mortality sample on their political interest, political knowledge, and political participation. Mortality undermines the external validity when our research interest is to describe the political interest, political knowledge, and political participation of the mass public.When the selection process correlates with some variables in our model, mortality also undermines the internal validity of our research. I demonstrate that we will underestimate the importance of the respondent's age and his /her interest on newspaper on explaining his /her voting participation when we have the mortality problem in our panel studies. When we want to explain the importance of incumbent advantage, mortality makes us overestimate the importance of Democrat's incumbency and underestimate the importance of Republican incumbency.Participating in panel studies is a function of the respondent's interest and attitudes toward surveys. We shall always keep this in mind since the respondent's cooperation is the key point for the success of survey research. As the nonresponse rate increases in most surveys, social scientists have the obligation to make our interview more pleasant for our respondents.
Presidential Voting of 1996 in Taiwan: An Analysis (in Chinese)
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In this paper, I use a multinomial logit model to explain how voters decided their votes in the 1996 Presidential election in Taiwan. Generally, a voter’s party identification and evaluation toward three major candidates played important roles on his or her vote choice in this election. The political climate, popularity among the four candidates and the distribution of partisans, favored President Lee Teng-hui. His maintaining economic prosperity and attraction to those middle-of-the-road voters also helped him to win this election. Both Mr. Peng Ming-min and Lin Yang-kang got their support from those with higher education and with the feeling of the national economy being worse. As to voters’ ethnic identity, people identifying themselves as Taiwanese inclined to support Mr. Peng. However, Mr. Lin did not gain advantage from those whom with Chinese identity. On the “social welfare v. economic development” issue, respondents with being closer to “social welfare” stances tended to support Mr. Peng. On the “reform v. status quo” issue, Mr. Peng's supporters came from those whose stances being closer to “reform.”
The Electoral Effect of Party Effort and Social Context on Voters: The Case of Kuomingtang Veteran Association(Huang-Fu-Hsing) (in Chinese)
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