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3 article(s) found.
Guo-chen Wang, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
Chung-li Wu, Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica. (corresponding author)
Impact of Electoral Reforms on Stability and Change in Voting Behavior: Elections to the Legislative Yuan, 1998-2012 (in Chinese) Download
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This study uses the method of two-stage least squares of dynamic panel data models to examine the variables closely related to electoral stability and change in Taiwan, especially focusing on the impact of electoral reform of the Legislative Yuan in 2008 on voting behavior. To account for causal effects, the analysis includes 1,820 observations consisted of the 364 township and village-level units of five legislative elections from 1998 to 2012. The data sources come from the archive of election outcomes officially released by the Central Election Commission, and the statistical yearbooks published by county and city governments. The findings reveal that the variables of electoral reforms, types of electoral system, gender ratio, the level of educational attainment, and proportion of civil servants present statistically significant associations with the index of vote volatility.In addition, the factors of macroeconomic conditions, voting patterns, and geographical contexts emerge as statistically significant and in the anticipated directions. The empirical results demonstrate the Duverger’s law and also the self-fulfilling prophecy; i.e., the reforms of electoral system exert a profound effect of the stability and change of voting behavior. There are at least three academic implications that can be drawn from the outcome of this study. First, this study verifies the relationship between electoral system, party system, and electoral stability and change. Second, it empirically measures the vote volatility index which might be valuable for campaign strategies. Last, different from the qualitative and limited dependent variable models in the previous studies of political participation, this study takes advantage of a dynamic panel data model to assess the impact of electoral reforms on stability and change in voting behavior. Developing an electoral model that is both concise and accurate awaits future research.
Da-chi Liao, Director and Professor, Institute of Political Science, National Sun Yat-sen University.
Fu-ren Li, Director and Professor, Institute of Service Science, National Tsing Hua University.
Yu-ci Huang, MA, Institute of Information Management, Naional Tsing Hua University.
Zi-yu Liu, Ph.D Student, Institute of Political Science, National Sun Yat-sen University.
Cheng-xun Lee, Ph.D Student, Institute of Political Science, National Sun Yat-sen University.
The Establishment of Taiwanese Legislators' Campaign Promise Database (in Chinese) Download
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In Taiwan's legislative elections, candidates running for office are required to submit campaign promises to be published in the Electoral Bulletin. This research considers that campaign promises published in Electoral Bulletins are the official commitments of the candidates and should not be disregarded as insignificant and unworthy of research. Moreover, the connection between the candidates' campaign promises and their performances after being elected should be studied in order to monitor their ”accountability” to voters. It is our hope that more emphasis is placed on ”campaign promises” printed in Electoral Bulletins, which would help to create a positive influence on the creation of a democracy.

In order to achieve the above stated goal, this paper has established the ”Sixth and Seventh Legislative Campaign Promise Database” based on campaign promises by candidates during Taiwan's sixth and seventh term legislative elections. Hopefully this database would facilitate the research on issues related to the connection between campaign promises and the legislators' on-job performance after being elected.This paper will mainly cover the establishment process of this database, including the manual coding method and the latest information technology used for data mining, namely the multi-label classification method.

This paper also attempts to compare and contrast these two methods and hopes to bring in the most advanced information technology to conduct a certain level of automated classification for campaign promises printed in Electoral Bulletins in every election.
Yeh-Lih Wang, Professor, Deptment of Political Science, Tunghai University.
Jui-Fen Yang, Master student, Graduate Institute of Political Science, Tunghai University.
Public Opinion Survey and Candidate Selection: A Case Study of DPP in 1998 Legislative Yuan Election (in Chinese) Download
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Two major parties in Taiwan, KMT and DPP, have implemented public opinion survey as the formal mechanism for their candidate selections. The employment of public opinion survey in the process of candidate selection is based on two hypotheses: (1) the usage of opinion survey may narrow down the gap between the ”party will” and the ”public opinion”, (2) the usage of opinion survey may reduce the influence of ”nominal party members”. This paper examines the candidate selection process of DPP in 1998 Legislative Yuan Election, and demonstrates that none of the hypotheses above are true. Moreover, when the public opinion survey was applied for the candidate selection, the most important function of the political party will be shrunk.