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Ph. D., Department of Political Science, University of New Orleans;Associate Professor, Department of Public Affairs and Civil Education, National Changhua University of Education.
Governance Performance, Racial Factor, and the Mayor’s Approval Rating: The Case of New Orleans before and after Hurricane Katrina
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U.S. political scientists have long been attracted to the issue of how citizens evaluate their chief executive, both in central and local governments. Some scholars claim that people’s perception of the quality of their life makes a huge impact on their approval of the chief executive while researchers of other schools indicate the racial factor is the one playing the most important role in it.
This research compares a racial model to a performance model in
explaining the approval of the mayor of New Orleans before and after Hurricane Katrina, analyzing the dynamics of job approval of the black mayor, Ray Nagin. By analyzing the 2004, 2006 and 2007 Quality of Life study survey data offered by the Survey Research Center, University of New Orleans, we concluded the findings suggest that the mayoral approval rating is affected by both the factor of race and governance performance.
However, the racial model makes an even greater impact on the case of Mayor Nagin than performance model does. The dramatic change of Mayor Nagin’s racial support base before and after Hurricane Katrina demonstrates that race is a crucial factor in influencing New Orleans residences’ approval of their mayor.
Chi Huang, Chair Professor, Department of Political Science and Senior Research Fellow, Election Study Center, National Chengchi University.
Chang-chih Lin, Adjunct Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Hung-chung Wang, Post-doctoral Researcher, Election Study Center, National Chengchi University.
Analysis of Straight- and Split-Ticket Voting in Three-in-One Election: The Case of 2010 Kaohsiung Metropolitan Elections (in Chinese) Download
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Three-in-one election held on November 27th 2010 is the first five metropolitan elections in the history of Taiwan's local elections. Voters in this election could cast three ballots for different political positions: mayor, city councilor, and head of li. This study focuses on the Kaohsiung city and analyzes voters' straight- and split-ticket voting in the 2010 three-in-one election.In general, the character of electoral competition is shaped by electoral systems and the level of election. Single-member district with plurality system is considered to contribute to a competition between two major parties, whereas minor parties are more likely to survive under the SNTVMMD system. In the 2010 Kaohsiung mayoral election, then DPP incumbent Kaohsiung County Magistrate Chiu-hsing Yang ran for mayoral election as an independent candidate and replaced the KMT candidate, Chao-shun Huang, as the major competitor of incumbent mayor, Chu Chen. Our study finds that indeed some pan-blue partisans voted for Yang strategically in the mayoral election. This finding to an extent confirms the rumor of ”dump Huang and save Yang” before the election.Meanwhile, most of those pan-blue partisans who voted Yang for mayor remained to support pan-blue candidates in the city councilor election, showing a split-ticket voting pattern. In contrast, pan-green partisans demonstrated a high degree of loyalty to the DPP mayoral candidate, Chu Chen, and the pan-green candidates in the city councilor elections.As for the lowest-level election of head of li, our study shows that there is no significant relationship between vote choice of head of li and that of mayor and city councilor. This finding indicates that the character of the election of head of li is quite different from that of mayor and councilor election.
Chung-Ii Wu, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chung Cheng University.
Hung-chung Wang, Graduate Student, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
The Psychological Cognition for Divided Government and Electoral Stability in Taiwan: The Cases of the 2000 Presidential and 2001 Legislative Yuan Elections (in Chinese) Download
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The phenomenon of divided government seemingly has become the institutional norm at the various levels of governments in Taiwan. In view of its theoretically and practically political implications, we focus on the causes of divided government in Taiwan’ s national politics. Put it simply, we examine the contending perspectives: the voters prefer the system of checks and balances by divided partisan control of the executive and legislative branches, and intentionally votes for presidential and congressional candidates of different political parties; or, the electoral choice may have little to do with public preferences for divided or unified government but is heavily influenced by other determinants. We take advantage of the 2001 Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study (TEDS 2001) survey data of the general preference for divided government and examine if vote choice is on the basis of strategic considerations in the 2000 presidential and 2001 Legislative Yuan elections. The findings indicate that the variables of ethnicity, party identification, Taiwanese/Chinese identification, and the cognition for checks and balances emerge as statistically significant for accounting electoral stability/change and for the existence of divided government at the central level.