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9 article(s) found.
Doctoral Student, Department of Public Administration, National Chengchi University; Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
Please Be My Friend: The Taiwanese Public’s Ally Preferences between the United States and China Download
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This study takes advantage of Taiwan public opinion data to examine citizens’ views on whether their country should ally with the United States or China. It tests two hypotheses on how citizens arrive at their choice of an ally: ambivalence toward both the US and China, and an evaluation of which of the two countries is the more powerful. The results reveal that the proportion of the Taiwanese public that would pick China as an ally (41.7%) is almost the same as the proportion that would opt for the US (44.5%). Pan-Blue supporters and those favoring unification with China have a higher probability of choosing China, while Taiwan independence supporters and those identifying as Taiwanese only are less likely to choose China as an ally for Taiwan. Logistic regression analyses show that more ambivalent citizens are more likely to choose China, and that judgement of which country is most powerful is a conditional predictor of choice of ally.
Chung-li Wu, Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science at Academia Sinica.
Do Contacts Matter? Public Impressions of a Rising China in Taiwan (in English) Download
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The emergence of China as a first-tier world power is a critical issue both politically and economically, but what is often overlooked is how more frequent interaction with China influences public opinion. This study is aimed at assessing two competing approaches, "contact" theory and "group threat" theory, in an effort to understand how exposure to and contact with China influence Taiwanese citizens' impressions of China. More specifically, it focuses on how, as cross-Strait relations develop, the public in Taiwan may either have positive views or negative feelings toward China. Methodologically, in addition to the objective measurement of contact (exposure to China) employed in the previous literature, the paper uses a subjective measurement of contact (willingness to interact with China). This study analyzes both individual-level and aggregate-level datasets in the models; in doing this, it takes advantage of a 2014 nationwide telephone survey and considers the effects of the regional context. The findings demonstrate that the subjective measurement shows more variance in public opinion on China than the objective measure, and the contextual variables exert conditional influences upon Taiwanese people's overall disposition toward China. The results by and large confirm the validity of contact theory, but also indicate that it is too simplistic and straightforward, and therefore in need of revision. The data reveal that greater exposure is not enough to foster greater trust and cooperation between the two sides; it is increased willingness to interact that creates more favorable impressions.
Guo-chen Wang, Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
Chung-li Wu, Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica. (corresponding author)
Impact of Electoral Reforms on Stability and Change in Voting Behavior: Elections to the Legislative Yuan, 1998-2012 (in Chinese) Download
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This study uses the method of two-stage least squares of dynamic panel data models to examine the variables closely related to electoral stability and change in Taiwan, especially focusing on the impact of electoral reform of the Legislative Yuan in 2008 on voting behavior. To account for causal effects, the analysis includes 1,820 observations consisted of the 364 township and village-level units of five legislative elections from 1998 to 2012. The data sources come from the archive of election outcomes officially released by the Central Election Commission, and the statistical yearbooks published by county and city governments. The findings reveal that the variables of electoral reforms, types of electoral system, gender ratio, the level of educational attainment, and proportion of civil servants present statistically significant associations with the index of vote volatility.In addition, the factors of macroeconomic conditions, voting patterns, and geographical contexts emerge as statistically significant and in the anticipated directions. The empirical results demonstrate the Duverger’s law and also the self-fulfilling prophecy; i.e., the reforms of electoral system exert a profound effect of the stability and change of voting behavior. There are at least three academic implications that can be drawn from the outcome of this study. First, this study verifies the relationship between electoral system, party system, and electoral stability and change. Second, it empirically measures the vote volatility index which might be valuable for campaign strategies. Last, different from the qualitative and limited dependent variable models in the previous studies of political participation, this study takes advantage of a dynamic panel data model to assess the impact of electoral reforms on stability and change in voting behavior. Developing an electoral model that is both concise and accurate awaits future research.
Tzu-ping Liu, Research Assistant, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
Chung-li Wu, Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
Shih-chan Dai, Research Assistant, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
Cross-Pressures, Opinion Expression, and Party Identification: Lessons of the 2008 Legislative Yuan Elections in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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This study examines whether people's interpersonal relationship and social environments are important resources, which affect individuals' opinion expressions. Different from the approaches such of ”socio-demographic factors” and ”political mobilization” in the existing literature on political participation, this study uses ”cross-pressures” as its theoretical framework, analyzing the influence posed by cross-pressures on persons' inclination to express their own political opinions in the 2008 Legislative Yuan elections. The cross-pressures might be especially salient when their political positions are different from those of their family members. We employ the 2008 Taiwan Election and Democratization Study (TEDS 2008) survey data, using ”cross-tabulation analyses” and ”multinomial logit models” to investigate the association between four-type respondents and political expressions. Note that the variable of ”party identification” is employed as the proxy for tapping the concept of political expression. The findings reveal that the variables of gender, age, ethnicity, Taiwanese/Chinese consciousness, unification/independence preference, cross-pressures, and four-type respondents are the significant factors associated with an individual’s expression of party identification, and most of them run in the expected directions. More importantly, some respondents refuse to express their real partisan preferences and therefore report themselves as ”independents” during face-to-face interviews when they are under social interactions with cross-pressures. The results confirm the major hypothesis of this research: individuals having homogeneous social interactions and under low-level cross-pressures are predisposed to talk about politics, while people in cross-pressures involving greater political disagreement are less likely to express their political preferences.
Chung-li Wu, Associate Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
Authoritarian Nostalgia in Taiwan: Public Evaluations of the Chiang Ching-Kuo Administration in Comparative Perspective (in Chinese) Download
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In the case of some transitions from authoritarianism to democracy, it is prevalent to have the sentiment of nostalgia for the stable and orderly times of the past regime, particularly in the context of nascent democracies. This pilot study sheds some light on the issue by examining the public evaluations of government performance between the Chiang Ching-kuo administration and the present government in Taiwan. I take advantage of the ”2003 Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study” (TEDS 2003) survey date, using the technique of factor analysis to classify government-performance evaluations into two factors, ”liberty and democracy” and ”stabilization and income equality,” and then employing regression models to test the relationship between sociopolitical variables and the two factors. The findings confirm the research hypothesis of authoritarian nostalgia that the public perceptions of the Chiang Ching-kuo administration and the present government differ in terms of the political perspective and the socioeconomic standpoint. On one hand, the general public has perceived the achievement of ”liberty and democracy” since the democratic transition, and on the other has looked back with nostalgia to the impressions of ”stabilization and income equality” during the authoritarian period. The findings also reveal that the variables of educational attainment, political knowledge, Taiwanese consciousness, Taiwan independence preference, and the pan-green identification exert positive effects on ”liberty and democracy,” while the variables of mainlander ethnicity, Chinese consciousness, China reunification preference, and the pan-blue identification account for significant variance in ”stabilization and income equality.” This study concludes that authoritarian nostalgia is still potential for future research in this field of democratization.
Hsiao-chien Tsui, Assistant Professor, Department of Economics, National Chung Cheng University.
Chung-li Wu, Associate Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
Electoral Decisions for Political Party and Its Un-nominated Aspirants (in Chinese) Download
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In any given election, aspirants without party approvals still have the incentive to run as independent candidates. In the face of the competition with patty nominees, unsuccessful aspirants could insist on campaigning against nominating candidates or determine to withdraw from the contests. The purpose of this study is to examine the reasons for unsuccessful aspirants decide to run as candidates or to withdraw from elections. It is hypothesized that both political patties and aspirants are rational decision makers in an attempt to minimize electoral costs and meanwhile maximize the benefits. The aspirants without party blessings could decide not to run in elections if they calculate that the fixed electoral costs exceed the expected payoffs. This study employs a three-stage game model to reach some corollaries based on the subgame perfect equilibriums for political parties and unnominated aspirants. The findings reveal that political parties are always unable to deter unsuccessful aspirants from being independent candidates, and then one common strategy is to boycott the aspirants in the elections. However, political patties could learn that adopting defense tactics will pay more costs than tolerating the aspirants to run as mavericks. As a result, the unsuccessful aspirants should wage campaign activities when they perceive that political parties claiming to use deterrent strategies are just bluffs and therefore ”incredible threats.”
Chung-Li Wu, Assistant Professor of Political Science, National Chung Cheng University.
Chi Huang, Professor of Political Science, National Chung Cheng University.
Politics and Judiciary Decisions on Vote-Buying Cases in Southwest Taiwan: A Hierarchical Logit Model (in Chinese) Download
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Vote-buying has long marred Taiwan's elections and this malpractice has been condemned by all sections of our society. Yet the general public does not seem to trust the judicial system in Taiwan to be independent of political influences. A number of popular sayings reflect this negative impression of vote-buying cases in the court. For example, it is widely quoted that ”the judiciary is dominated by the ruling Kuomintang, ”that”those elected will be let off, but those lost will be imprisoned, ”and that” at the first trial a heavy sentence is laid down, at the second trial the sentence is halved, and in the third trial the case is quashed. ”This paper examines the three-level court's decisions on vote-buying litigation in Southwest Taiwan between 1995 and 1998. Ahierarchical logit model is constructed to test whether judgements on vote-buying cases are affected by political factors and, if they are,to what extent. To our amazement, we find that there is no significant relationship between the court's decisions and the party affiliation of the litigants involved, whether the candidates are elected or not, the type of elections, or the judicial procedure of vote-buying cases. In other words,those popular sayings cited above are inconsistent with our findings. Undoubtedly,judicial politics in Taiwan deserves further academic research.
Chung-Li Wu, Assistant Professor of Political Science, National Chung Cheng University.
Ching-Ping Tang, Assistant Professor of Political Science, National Chung Cheng University.
Chi Huang, Professor of Political Science, National Chung Cheng University.
A Pilot Study on Measuring the Sense of Political Efficacy in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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The concept of political efficacy has played significant roles in various theories of political attitude and behavior. This paper first briefly reviews its historical development and then concentrates on its operationalization and measurement in survey questionnaires. Recognizing the importance of standardization, we faithfully translate into Chinese the three questions initially composed by the National Election Studies (NES). These translated questions are then applied to a telephone interview in Chia-Yi, Taiwan, conducted in early December of 1998. Our analysis indicates that these three Chinese-version items also reveal internal as well as external dimensions of political efficacy, a finding that coincides well with the existing literature. We therefore conclude that the three standardized questions may be applied in surveys of wider context. Undoubtedly, there are still certain linguistic ambiguities in question-wording translation. We suggest some possible solutions in future studies.
Reevaluation of the Effects of Kuomintang’s Party Primary System (in Chinese)
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The employment of the party primary has been controversial within the Kuomintang(KMT),critics charging it with some flaws: intra-party factions hindered the nominated candidates by supporting opposition candidates in general elections; those who won in primary elections proved not necessarily electable in general elections, since party identifiers were different from the electorate; it frequently led to sharper power struggles; it worsened the illegal practice of violence and vote-buying; aspirants underwent two campaigns for one election, spending energy and money twice; Taiwan’s political climate seemed inapt for the practice of U.S.-style primary election system. By analyzing relevant data, I argue that the core problem of the party primary was its lack of fairness because KMT party cadres tried to monopolize the candidate selection and thus failed to remain neutral. Throughout this essay and in the conclusion, I note that any political party appears likely to open its candidate selection practice in an attempt to continue its political dominance.