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4 article(s) found.
Chih-sung Teng, Associate Professor, Graduate Institute of National Development, National Taiwan University.
Chia-feng Huang, Doctoral Student, Department of Politics, University of California, Riverside.
Chin-en Wu, Associate Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
Environmental Protest and Green Party Vote Share: An Investigation of Party List Vote in the 2012 Legislative Election (in Chinese) Download
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We investigate the relationship between environmental protests and parties’ vote shares. Whether environmental protest contributes to the vote share of the Green party? As Green party emphasizes environment protection, people who suffer from environmental pollution is more likely to endorse Green Party. If not, what are the factors behind the situation? We collect and categorize environmental protest data between 1987 and 2009. Applying GIS and spatial analysis, we collapse protest events by township and issue types. Combining legislative election results, we analyze the influence of environmental protests on the vote shares of parties. The empirical result shows that anti-industrial pollution protests exert the most significant effect on party vote share but the influence varies across parties.

First, anti-industrial pollution protest is not significantly associated with the vote share of Green Party. The larger the number of anti-industrial pollution protest in a township, the higher the DPP’s vote share and the lower the KMT’s vote share. For the other types of environmental protests, we do not find comparable effect of protests on vote sharing. In this article we also find that it is socio-economic status of a township rather than the intensity of environmental protest that affect the electoral performance of Green party. Finally, the empirical model also demonstrates the significance of neighborhood effect on parties’ vote shares.
Chin-en Wu, Associate Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
Yi-tzu Lin, Ph. D. student, Department of Political Science, University of South Carolina.
Cross-Strait Economic Openness, Identity, and Vote Choice: An Analysis of the 2008 and 2012 Presidential Elections (in Chinese) Download
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This article examines across-strait trade openness and vote choices in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections. We first demonstrate two trends about economic assessments in the 2008 and 2012 elections. First, more and more people consider the economic effect of economic openness as neutral. Next, respondents decouple their assessments in the aggregate level and family level. While a substantial percentage of voters still think that economic openness has been bringing about economic prosperity for Taiwan, it has not done so at the family level. As to the effect of economic assessment, we find that the traditional economic voting battery does not exert comparable effect on voting as economic openness. Next, the socio-tropic assessment of economic openness is relatively more important than the pocket-book assessment. More importantly, we demonstrate how political identities, party identification and unification-independence choice, shape the influence of economic assessment on voting decisions. In general, economic assessments exert greater effects on pan-blue and pro-unification voters, while exert smaller effects on pan-green and pro-independence voters. This pattern is mainly associated with the extent that incoming messages are congruent with voters' existing beliefs.
Chih-sung Teng, Associate Professor, Graduate Institute of National Development, National Taiwan University.
Chin-en Wu, Assistant Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
I-jung Ko, MA, Graduate Institute of National Development, National Taiwan University.
What Causes the Invalid Votes? With a Concurrently Discussion of Spatial Analysis of Invalid Votes in Taiwan's Elections, 1992-2008 (in Chinese) Download
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The issue of invalid votes receives few scholarly attentions. Many consider invalid votes as the result of unintended behavior and do not explore the factors that may influence the incidence of invalid votes. We examine 37 elections of different levels between 1992 and 2008 in Taiwan by using panel data analysis. We find that the distribution of invalid votes are not random but are influenced by institutional and socioeconomic factors. Regarding institutional factors, the elections codes, the complexity of elections, the importance of elections, and years after the democratic transition are the main influencing factors. Years of education, the percentage of elders, population density, and percentage of indigenous citizens are the main socioeconomic variables that affect the incidence of invalid votes. The two strings of factors can explain about 34% of the variance in invalid votes. In addition to the pooled OLS model, we also employ spatial lag model and spatial error model. The two models show that the distribution of invalid votes exhibit positive spatial autocorrelation. In addition, some areas also exhibit spatial heterogeneity, which is likely to be attributed to the alienation of voters in the districts. We might need to pay special attention to these areas to enhance the quality of democracy.
Chih-sung Teng, Assistant Professor, Graduate Institute of National Development, National Taiwan University.
Chin-en Wu, Assistant Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica.
I-Jung Ko, Post-graduate student, Graduate Institute of National Development, National Taiwan University.
Spatial Distribution of Votes and Disproportionality: An Observation of the 6th and 7th Legislative Elections (in Chinese) Download
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In the 7th legislative election, Taiwan adopted the single-member district plurality, two-vote system. KMT garnered 53.5% of popular votes but received 78.1% of total seats. What factors account for the bias, and what is the role that spatial distribution of votes and districting plays? To answer these questions, we employ GIS and spatial econometrics to explore the determinants of disproportionality. Our empirical data comprised of the result of the 6th and 7th legislative election. We find that the vote share gap between parties and equally distributed votes across districts are the main contributing factors, while districting does not prove itself significant. On the other hand, we also use GIS to illustrate the relationship between vote concentration and seats allocation in several counties.