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11 article(s) found.
Professor of Department of Political Science, Senior Research Fellow of Election Study Center, and Director of the Taiwan Institute for Governance and Communication Research (TIGCR), National Chengchi University
Testing Partisan Effects on Economic Perceptions: A Panel Design Approach (in English) Download
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The economic voting model has been established as a paradigm for studying electoral accountability based on past economic performances and future prospects. However, objective economic conditions may be a valence issue, and subjective evaluations of the national economy may still be positional. Recent “revisionist” commentators argue that economic voting is “endogenous” in the sense that partisanship strongly affects, if not distorts, voters’ perceptions of macroeconomic performance. Different responses have been elicited to this “partisan bias” claim, but few directly address the causal effect of partisanship on economic perceptions.
This study examined two competing theories of economic voting through investigating the partisan effects on sociotropic economic perceptions. By designing a narrow-window panel telephone survey conducted before and after the January 2016 presidential election in Taiwan, I constructed a two-way fixed effects (FE) model to test the existence of partisan bias. The estimates provided robust evidence of partisan effects on retrospective and prospective economic assessments. In other words, government party supporters evaluated both past and future economic performance favorably during the pre-election period but became pessimistic after their preferred party lost the election. By contrast, opposition party supporters discredited past economic performances during the government party’s rule and expressed optimistic expectations regarding future economic performances after their preferred party won the election. However, the theoretical and methodological conclusions reached in this study extend beyond the single case of Taiwan’s 2016 presidential election.
Chi Huang, Chair Professor, Department of Political Science and Senior Research Fellow, Election Study Center,
National Chengchi University.
Endogenous Regressors in Nonlinear Probability Models: A Generalized Structural Equation Modeling Approach (in English) Download
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Endogeneity of explanatory variables is a common problem in many areas of social sciences. Ironically, there seems to be a gap between being aware of the problem and knowing how best to handle it. The problem is exacerbated when the outcome variable of interest is categorical and thus non-linear probability models are involved. The study fills the gap by first distinguishing two main sources of endogeneity, including unmeasured confounders (“latent factors”) and measured but omitted causes (“endogenous mediators”), and then proposing an integrated approach to confront the two problems simultaneously. This strategy generalizes structural equation models to categorical outcome by including a shared latent factor between correlated error terms to tackle unobserved confounders, on the one hand, and extending mediation analysis to deal with potentially endogenous discrete mediators, on the other hand. For illustrative purpose, this proposed modeling strategy is presented with an example of heated debates in economic voting literature concerning the possible endogeneity of voters’ economic perceptions.
Chi Huang, Chair Professor, Department of Political Science and Senior Research Fellow, Election Study Center, National Chengchi University.
Chang-chih Lin, Adjunct Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Hung-chung Wang, Post-doctoral Researcher, Election Study Center, National Chengchi University.
Analysis of Straight- and Split-Ticket Voting in Three-in-One Election: The Case of 2010 Kaohsiung Metropolitan Elections (in Chinese) Download
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Three-in-one election held on November 27th 2010 is the first five metropolitan elections in the history of Taiwan's local elections. Voters in this election could cast three ballots for different political positions: mayor, city councilor, and head of li. This study focuses on the Kaohsiung city and analyzes voters' straight- and split-ticket voting in the 2010 three-in-one election.In general, the character of electoral competition is shaped by electoral systems and the level of election. Single-member district with plurality system is considered to contribute to a competition between two major parties, whereas minor parties are more likely to survive under the SNTVMMD system. In the 2010 Kaohsiung mayoral election, then DPP incumbent Kaohsiung County Magistrate Chiu-hsing Yang ran for mayoral election as an independent candidate and replaced the KMT candidate, Chao-shun Huang, as the major competitor of incumbent mayor, Chu Chen. Our study finds that indeed some pan-blue partisans voted for Yang strategically in the mayoral election. This finding to an extent confirms the rumor of ”dump Huang and save Yang” before the election.Meanwhile, most of those pan-blue partisans who voted Yang for mayor remained to support pan-blue candidates in the city councilor election, showing a split-ticket voting pattern. In contrast, pan-green partisans demonstrated a high degree of loyalty to the DPP mayoral candidate, Chu Chen, and the pan-green candidates in the city councilor elections.As for the lowest-level election of head of li, our study shows that there is no significant relationship between vote choice of head of li and that of mayor and city councilor. This finding indicates that the character of the election of head of li is quite different from that of mayor and councilor election.
Yi-ching Hsiao, Assistant Professor, Department of Public Administration, Tamkang University.
Chi Huang, Chair Professor and Senior Research Fellow, Department of Political Science and Election Study Center, National Chengchi University.
Government Performance and Voter Choice in Local Elections: The Case of 2009 Yunlin County and Township Magistrates Elections (in Chinese) Download
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Free and fair election is the core of democracy. Regular election in turn is the most important vehicle for the electorate to hold the ruling party and government accountable. This paper, based on theoretical arguments, elaborates the effects of government performance at different levels of elections. We argue that the higher the level of elections, the higher the level of government is held accountable by the electorate, while at the bottom local level elections, only the local government performance matters. In the county magistrate's election, the central government's performance should play a more important role on voter choice. By contrast, in the township magistrate's election, the local government's performance should have greater effects on voter choice. We test this proposition with the case of Yunlin in the 2009 county and township magistrates' elections with the survey data collected by the Taiwan's Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) project. We find that indeed voter choice in county magistrate's election is significantly affected by both central and county government's performance. However, neither central nor local government performance has significant effect on voter choice in township magistrates' election. This finding may reflect the fact that bottom-level local elections relies more on social networks and local factions than on government policy evaluation.
Chi Huang, University Chair Professor, Department of Political Science, and Research Fellow, Election Study Center, National Chengchi University.
Causal Inference and Treatment Effect Evaluation: Partial Identification Approach and Its Application to Electoral System Effect (in Chinese) Download
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In social science we routinely ask questions of the form: What is the effect of X on Y? Attempts to answer these questions unavoidably involve causal inference. However, social scientists relying on observational studies are often plagued by the endogeneity problem. That is, the treatment and control groups are not randomly assigned by researchers but formed spontaneously by some factors related to the causal variable of interest. Some existing parametric models, such as the popular Heckman's treatment-effects model, do take account endogeneity problem but are built upon quite stringent functional and distributional assumptions such as linearity and bivariate Normal distribution. Powerful as they are in point identifying causal parameters, their assumptions are not always met in reality. When these assumptions are violated, a better alternative is to adopt Charles F. Manski's nonparametric partial identification approach. This uncommon approach promotes forthright acknowledge of ambiguity in social science research and discredits misplaced certainty of point identification at the cost of imposing strong and yet incredible assumptions. Relying on available data and weak but credible assumptions, partial identification theory reveals the causal effect parameter that lies in a set that is smaller than the logical range of the parameter but lager than a single point. Yet it makes transparent the relationship between maintained assumptions and causal inference.

Starting from the counterfactual model of causality, this article introduces Manski's partial identification theory and examines its implications on the upper and lower bounds of the average treatment effect (ATE). We then illustrate the approach by applying it to the case of Taiwan's 2008 Legislative Yuan election and examining whether Taiwan Solidarity Union's nomination in 13 single-member districts had any ”contamination effect” on its party list vote shares.
Chi Huang, Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Ding-ming Wang, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
Ming-feng Kuo, Ph.D. Student, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
Straight-And Split-Ticket Voting in a Mixed-Member Majoritarian System: An Analysis of the 1996 House Election in Japan (in Chinese) Download
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The 1990s witnessed an explosion in electoral reforms, especially in adopting the ”mixed electoral systems” which combine the features of both single-member districts (SMD) and proportional representation (PR). In January 1994, the Japanese Diet passed the law that replaced the single nontransferable vote (SNTV), in use since 1947, with a mixed-member majoritarian (MMM) system. Voters cast two votes in this new electoral system: a candidate vote in an SMD, and a party-list vote in the list tier portion of the ballot. The 1996 House election was the first test of the MMM system in Japan. The purpose of this article is to assess the effects of this electoral system change based on the 1996 post-election survey of the Japanese Election Study (JES). We focus particularly on the straight-and split-ticket voting patterns for the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) and their determinants.

Our study indicates that straight-ticket rate was pretty high among the LDP supporters. That is, 80.16% of those who voted for an LDP candidate in an SMD also voted for the LDP on a party-list vote. A further analysis reveals that the LDP identifiers and the more conservative were much more likely to cast straight votes for the LDP, but on the other hand voters with college-level or higher education were less likely to do so. We also find that between two types of ticket-splitters, the percentage of voters who voted for an LDP candidate in an SMD and yet for the non-LDP on a party-list ballot was higher than those who voted the other around. This is probably due to the fact that some non-LDP party identifiers voted strategically in SMDs for the largest party's (i.e., the LDP) candidates, on the one hand, and yet voted sincerely for the non-LDP on the party-list ballot.
Chi Huang, Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chung-Cheng University.
Analyzing Electoral Stability and Change: Markov Chain Models for Longitudinal Categorical Data (in Chinese) Download
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How voters cast their votes in successive elections determines not only the fate of candidates but also the rise and fall of political parties and sometimes even causes party system changes. The subject of electoral stability and change, due to its significance in theory and practice, has long attracted the attention of political scientists around the world. Despite the voluminous publications cumulated so far, however, there are still heated debates regarding how best to model this dynamic electoral process and to estimate the amount of changes.

The purpose of this paper is two-folds. First, it clarifies some confusion in the literature caused by its failing to distinguish gross change from net change and to recognize the strengths and weaknesses of various types of data in evaluating these two changes. After pointing out how panel data prevail over repeated cross-sections and aggregate data in estimating both forms of changes, we then proceed to identify a statistical model that best fits the categorical measurement of electoral changes dominant in panel surveys. The second part of this paper, therefore, pinpoints discrete-time discrete-state Markov chain models as ideal tools for describing the dynamic electoral process and further analyzing the sources of change patterns. The transition probabilities of Markov models coincide with the theoretical concepts of flow-of-the-votes and reflect the way state dependence shapes the trajectories of electoral changes. Finally, we apply a mixed Markov model to the three-wave Japanese Election Study (JES) panel data set to illustrate the potential of this technique.
Ding-ming Wang, Associate Professor, Department of Political Science and the Graduate Institute of Political Economy, National Cheng Kung University.
Chun-pin Su, Assistant Professor, Department of Applied Japanese, Diwan College of Management.
Chi Huang, Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chung-Cheng University.
Ming-feng Kuo, Master, Graduate Institute of Political Economy, National Cheng Kung University.
Electoral Stability and Change in Japan: A Panel Study of the House Elections in 1993, 1996 and 2000 (in Chinese) Download
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Japanese party politics witnessed a dramatic change in 1993. The then ruling Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), which had dominated the Japanese politics since 1955, lost its majority seats in the 1993 House of Representatives election. Three years later, however, the LDP staged a comeback and played the major role in forming the new coalition government. It managed to maintain this control in the 2000 House election. We are curious about how Japanese voters responded to the turmoil of Japanese party system during this period. Taking advantage of a panel data of the Japanese Election Study (JES), we explore the dynamics of electoral stability and change of the LDP supporters during the 1993, 1996 and 2000 House elections.

Among several Markov chain models analyzed in this paper, we find that the Black and White model, a special case of the Mover-Stayer model, fits the JES panel data best. Specifically, this model splits subjects into two latent subgroups with maximum intragroup homogeneity and intergroup heterogeneity, each of which has its own estimated transition probabilities. The first subgroup (“stayers”), which consists of about 48.28% of the panel, always maintains its LDP or non-LDP party preference without any change. The second subgroup, which consists of about 51.72% of the panel, however, moves randomly. In 1993, 37% of “stayers” supported the LDP while 40.46% of “random movers” supported the LDP. In 1996 election, half of this 40.46% of “random movers” shifted away from the LDP while the other 59.54% non-LDP supporters shifted to the LDP. As a result, the LDP enjoyed a net gain of 4.93% in total votes in 1996. Since the Black and White model has reached its steady state after the 1996 transition, it indicates little net change in year 2000’s election.
Chung-Li Wu, Assistant Professor of Political Science, National Chung Cheng University.
Chi Huang, Professor of Political Science, National Chung Cheng University.
Politics and Judiciary Decisions on Vote-Buying Cases in Southwest Taiwan: A Hierarchical Logit Model (in Chinese) Download
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Vote-buying has long marred Taiwan's elections and this malpractice has been condemned by all sections of our society. Yet the general public does not seem to trust the judicial system in Taiwan to be independent of political influences. A number of popular sayings reflect this negative impression of vote-buying cases in the court. For example, it is widely quoted that ”the judiciary is dominated by the ruling Kuomintang, ”that”those elected will be let off, but those lost will be imprisoned, ”and that” at the first trial a heavy sentence is laid down, at the second trial the sentence is halved, and in the third trial the case is quashed. ”This paper examines the three-level court's decisions on vote-buying litigation in Southwest Taiwan between 1995 and 1998. Ahierarchical logit model is constructed to test whether judgements on vote-buying cases are affected by political factors and, if they are,to what extent. To our amazement, we find that there is no significant relationship between the court's decisions and the party affiliation of the litigants involved, whether the candidates are elected or not, the type of elections, or the judicial procedure of vote-buying cases. In other words,those popular sayings cited above are inconsistent with our findings. Undoubtedly,judicial politics in Taiwan deserves further academic research.
Chung-Li Wu, Assistant Professor of Political Science, National Chung Cheng University.
Ching-Ping Tang, Assistant Professor of Political Science, National Chung Cheng University.
Chi Huang, Professor of Political Science, National Chung Cheng University.
A Pilot Study on Measuring the Sense of Political Efficacy in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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The concept of political efficacy has played significant roles in various theories of political attitude and behavior. This paper first briefly reviews its historical development and then concentrates on its operationalization and measurement in survey questionnaires. Recognizing the importance of standardization, we faithfully translate into Chinese the three questions initially composed by the National Election Studies (NES). These translated questions are then applied to a telephone interview in Chia-Yi, Taiwan, conducted in early December of 1998. Our analysis indicates that these three Chinese-version items also reveal internal as well as external dimensions of political efficacy, a finding that coincides well with the existing literature. We therefore conclude that the three standardized questions may be applied in surveys of wider context. Undoubtedly, there are still certain linguistic ambiguities in question-wording translation. We suggest some possible solutions in future studies.