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3 article(s) found.
Tsung-Han Tsai, Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Chang-Chih Lin, Adjunct Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
The Measurement of Latent Variables and Its Effects: An Analysis of Taiwanese Attitudes on the Independence-Unification Issue in 2013 (in Chines) Download
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In this article, we focus on the measurement of Taiwanese attitudes on the independence-unification issue, and argue that, when analysts are not certain about how measurement errors influence the results of analysis, the best way is to take measurement errors into account in their analyses. Based on the methodology of generalized latent variable modeling, we treat Taiwanese attitudes on the independence-unification issue as unobserved, latent variables, which are measured by several manifest indicators, and evaluate the effect of these attitudes on party identification. Analyzing survey data from the Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) project conducted in 2013, we show that, first, Taiwanese attitudes on the independence-unification issue includes three types: principled supporters of independence, conditional supporters of independence, and conditional supporters of unification. Second, as shown in most of the studies on Taiwan politics, the stronger the voters prefer unification, the more likely they lean toward pan-blue parties, and vice versa.
Chang-chih Lin, Adjunct Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science and Post-doctoral Researcher, Election
Study Center, National Chengchi University.
How Important Is the Identity of the Vice Presidential Candidate for Voters? An Analysis of the 2012 Presidential Election in Taiwan (in Chinese) Download
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This paper focuses on voters' assessment of the role of the vice president and the effect of voter preference for vice presidential candidate (VPC) on voting in the presidential election. Taking the 2012 presidential election in Taiwan as an example, the paper uses individual-level data for analysis. The survey results show differences between voters' assessment of the constitutional role of the vice president and their actual voting behavior. Over 30% of respondents who believe that the vice president plays an important constitutional role do not take into account the VPC when voting in the presidential election. Moreover, voters' assessment of the presidential and vice presidential candidate can be divided into nine categories. The relationship between these categories and voting choice in the election demonstrates the following two hypotheses. First, the presidential candidate (PC) is a more important factor than the VPC in the presidential election, and, second, the VPC still has an effect on voters. The data shows that the effect of the voters' evaluation/preference of VPC on their voting choice is nontrivial and significant. Finally, the binary logit model shows a similar result for influence of the VPC on voting choice and furthermore indicates that the gap between the evaluations to the presidential and vice presidential candidates of the two major parties is a more important factor on voter choice than the specific evaluation toward a single candidate. In the model, the influence of the VPC does not fall away when we take into account the PC and has differential effect on blue-camp and green-camp supporters.
Chi Huang, Chair Professor, Department of Political Science and Senior Research Fellow, Election Study Center, National Chengchi University.
Chang-chih Lin, Adjunct Assistant Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Hung-chung Wang, Post-doctoral Researcher, Election Study Center, National Chengchi University.
Analysis of Straight- and Split-Ticket Voting in Three-in-One Election: The Case of 2010 Kaohsiung Metropolitan Elections (in Chinese) Download
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Three-in-one election held on November 27th 2010 is the first five metropolitan elections in the history of Taiwan's local elections. Voters in this election could cast three ballots for different political positions: mayor, city councilor, and head of li. This study focuses on the Kaohsiung city and analyzes voters' straight- and split-ticket voting in the 2010 three-in-one election.In general, the character of electoral competition is shaped by electoral systems and the level of election. Single-member district with plurality system is considered to contribute to a competition between two major parties, whereas minor parties are more likely to survive under the SNTVMMD system. In the 2010 Kaohsiung mayoral election, then DPP incumbent Kaohsiung County Magistrate Chiu-hsing Yang ran for mayoral election as an independent candidate and replaced the KMT candidate, Chao-shun Huang, as the major competitor of incumbent mayor, Chu Chen. Our study finds that indeed some pan-blue partisans voted for Yang strategically in the mayoral election. This finding to an extent confirms the rumor of ”dump Huang and save Yang” before the election.Meanwhile, most of those pan-blue partisans who voted Yang for mayor remained to support pan-blue candidates in the city councilor election, showing a split-ticket voting pattern. In contrast, pan-green partisans demonstrated a high degree of loyalty to the DPP mayoral candidate, Chu Chen, and the pan-green candidates in the city councilor elections.As for the lowest-level election of head of li, our study shows that there is no significant relationship between vote choice of head of li and that of mayor and city councilor. This finding indicates that the character of the election of head of li is quite different from that of mayor and councilor election.