All Issues

280 article(s) found.
Distinguished Research Fellow, Election Study Center and Taiwan Institute for Governance and Communication Research; Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University
Political Emotions and the 2016 Presidential Election in Taiwan Download
* Downloads: 280
Show abstract
Full content
This study will examine how emotions might affect people’s choice of vote. I will employ the 2016 Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS 2016) to see how voters’ emotions toward major presidential candidates affect their vote choices. Previous research argues that some positive emotions, such as hope and pride, and some negative emotions, such as anxiety and fear, might play critical roles in shaping citizens’ opinions. For an open-seat presidential election, looking forward and reasoning back, voters employ hopeful and fearful emotions to make their voting decisions. As expected, voters with a fearful feeling toward Tsai Ing-wen are less likely to support her. We also find that those who are angry with Chu Li-luan tend not to vote for him. Emotions shed some light on our understanding of voting behavior in Taiwan.
M.A., Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University; Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, and Research Fellow of Election Study Center,
Taiwan Institute for Governance and Communication Research, National Chengchi University.
The Effects of Electoral Competition and Information on Voter Turnout: The Case of the Local Council Election in Taiwan, 2005-2014 Download
* Downloads: 152
Show abstract
Full content
This article examines the effects of electoral competition on voter turnout conditional on the number of co-partisan candidates and incumbent reelection rates. Utilizing the advantages of SNTV-MMD systems such as the variations in the number of co-partisan candidates and incumbent reelection rates across districts, we conduct a data analysis of 486 districts of local councilors in Taiwan from 2005 to 2014, which are time-series crosssectional data. We analyze the data by employing multilevel beta regression models and the results show that, when the number of co-partisan candidates or incumbent reelection rates are relatively high, strong electoral competition significantly fosters voter turnout. The results have important implications for the effects of SNTV-MMD systems on voter turnout.
Professor of Department of Political Science, Senior Research Fellow of Election Study Center, and Director of the Taiwan Institute for Governance and Communication Research (TIGCR), National Chengchi University
Testing Partisan Effects on Economic Perceptions: A Panel Design Approach (in English) Download
* Downloads: 90
Show abstract
Full content
The economic voting model has been established as a paradigm for studying electoral accountability based on past economic performances and future prospects. However, objective economic conditions may be a valence issue, and subjective evaluations of the national economy may still be positional. Recent “revisionist” commentators argue that economic voting is “endogenous” in the sense that partisanship strongly affects, if not distorts, voters’ perceptions of macroeconomic performance. Different responses have been elicited to this “partisan bias” claim, but few directly address the causal effect of partisanship on economic perceptions.
This study examined two competing theories of economic voting through investigating the partisan effects on sociotropic economic perceptions. By designing a narrow-window panel telephone survey conducted before and after the January 2016 presidential election in Taiwan, I constructed a two-way fixed effects (FE) model to test the existence of partisan bias. The estimates provided robust evidence of partisan effects on retrospective and prospective economic assessments. In other words, government party supporters evaluated both past and future economic performance favorably during the pre-election period but became pessimistic after their preferred party lost the election. By contrast, opposition party supporters discredited past economic performances during the government party’s rule and expressed optimistic expectations regarding future economic performances after their preferred party won the election. However, the theoretical and methodological conclusions reached in this study extend beyond the single case of Taiwan’s 2016 presidential election.
Associate Professor, Department of Public Administration and Management, Chinese Culture University.
;Professor, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
The Combination of Electoral System and Constitutional System: A Cross-Country Study of Semi-Presidential Democracies (in Chinese) Download
* Downloads: 216
Show abstract
Full content
With an analytical framework comprised of variables such as
parliamentary electoral system, political party system in the parliament,constitutional system (semi-presidentialism) and government type, this paper explores the differences among the constitutional operations from different combinations of the semi-presidentialism subtype (premier presidentialism and president parliamentarism) and the parliamentary electoral system (plurality with single-member-district system, proportional representation system, mixed-member proportional system and mixed-member majoritarian system) in the democracies all over the world. As far as semi-presidentialism is concerned, it is found that the overall constitutional operation under premier presidentialism, no matter which parliamentary electoral system is adopted, goes better than that under president parliamentarism. This finding can be another supportive reference for the perspective which believes premier presidentialism is better than president parliamentarism.Furthermore, the constitutional operation under the combination of president parliamentarism and plurality with a single-member-district
system (or mixed-member majoritarian system) is sometimes proceeds more smoothly than that under the combination of president parliamentarism and proportional representation system (or mixed-member proportional system),but sometimes it does not, and even becomes more obstructed. This shows the dilemma of how to choose a suitable parliamentary electoral system under president parliamentarism. Besides, this paper also observes the overall tendency of semi-presidential democracies’ choices for the presidential electoral system, and points out two common misconceptions. The first is the belief that whether the president has great constitutional powers or not is related to the presidential electoral system, and the second is the belief that the president elected via a plurality system has less democratic legitimacy than the president elected via a majority system. These two perspectives do not correspond to actual experiences, and should be clarified.
Assistant Professor, Department of International Business, Tamkang University;Professor, Department of Public Policy and Management, Shin Hsin University.
Effects of Survey Questionnaire Design: A Random Experiment in Measuring Political Knowledge as an Example (in Chinese) Download
* Downloads: 100
Show abstract
Full content
A survey is designed to explore the participants’ opinions, attitudes and actions towards certain topics. The amount of information possessed by participants is not the only factor that influences their willingness to participate; question types and options design also influence participants’ responses. In reality, given cost constraints and questionnaire length, it is not feasible to provide a multiple survey design for a single concept, or to verify participants' response mode under different survey designs. This study used an experimental design to measure political knowledge from Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) as an example, based on (1) an “open-ended vs. close-ended” question design; (2) whether it provides “non-response” as an option, to design four different types of surveys. The study uses a posttest-only control group design with university students as participants. We randomly released the questionnaires to participants and had 1,110 valid questionnaires.
The study found that question type and non-response design affects the participant response mode; a close-ended questionnaire design does increase the correct response ratio from participants, but it also produces a higher proportion of incorrect answers than an open-ended questionnaire. An openended
questionnaire design does not have options as reference, and so it could lower the willingness of participants to take part in the survey, and it therefore resulted in a higher non-response ratio. From the composite design of question type and non-response option, we were able to precisely estimate types of participants as in Mondak (1999), but the combinations of different types of participants vary significantly as results from the level of difficulties in a questionnaire designed to measure political knowledge.
Ph. D. Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University
Cognitive Madisonianism and Split-Ticket Voting in Taiwan: A Generalized Structural Equation Modeling Approach (in Chinese) Download
* Downloads: 121
Show abstract
Full content
Cognitive madisoniansim is crucial in political situations. It is not only an important value of democratic societies, but also a factor in explaining split-ticket voting. With the increase of minor parties and candidates, the media believe that Taiwan’s 2016 general elections have shown the most fierce split-ticket voting. It is worth mentioning that we shall not ignore the
issue of endogeneity caused by partisanship when discussing the relationship between cognitive madisoniansim and split-ticket voting. Based on the panel data of TEDS2016, this study aims to recategorize the cognitive madisoniansim of the respondents and resolve the issue of endogeneity by applying a generalized structural equation model (GSEM). By doing so, we aim to examine the relationship between cognitive madisoniansim and splitticket
The findings show that the public’s cognitive madisoniansim was
indeed affected by party preference. DPP supporters have tended to support cognitive madisoniansim in the past. However, they stopped supporting it once the DDP took over the government. The KMT showed the opposite situation. They had been against cognitive madisoniansim in the past. When they began losing elections, they started to support it. Regarding voting decisions, cognitive madsoniansim has positive effects on people’s decisions about straight-ticket voting or split-ticket voting. Nevertheless, most voters who cast straight-ticket voting for the DPP are those who stopped supporting or constantly supported cognitive madisoniansim. These two groups of voters
both prefer the DDP. This result indicates that the effect of voters’ cognitive madisoniansim on their voting behaviors still reflects their party preference.The above-mentioned issues present the endogeneity issue derived by explaining the split-ticket voting behaviors by cognitive madisoniansim and
the inevitability of GSEM methods. We suggest that researchers not ignore the effect of party preference as they examine the relationship between cognitive madisoniansim and split-ticket voting.
Research Fellow of Election Study Center and Professor of Graduate Institute of East Asian Studies,Taiwan Institute for Governance and Communication Research, National Chengchi University.
Electoral Competition, Incumbency, News Coverage, and Prediction Market Price: A Preliminary Study of Campaign Contributions and Spending in Taiwan’s 2016 Legislative Elections (in English) Download
* Downloads: 97
Show abstract
Full content
In a political campaign, candidates attempt to mobilize voters by using contributions from individuals, corporations, and political parties. It is an accepted fact of democracy that campaigns should attempt to outdo one another in both the amount they collect in contributions and what they spend on campaigns. Previous research has explored the incumbent advantage in campaign finance, but many interesting factors remain. For instance, is fund-raising aided by factors such as the closeness of an election or a candidate’s tenure in the Legislative Yuan? In this study, we explain campaign contributions using data from prediction markets and television news reports to account for variations in campaign spending. Our results suggest that incumbent advantage does indeed affect contributions and that DPP candidates outperformed other candidates in campaign finance. We also find that previous electoral margins and television news coverage contribute significantly to campaign donations, and that election betting has an impact on spending. These findings suggest that a political party’s general campaign can influence the election race of an individual candidate, and that contributors tend to bet on likely winners, deepening the influence of the electoral system on competing political parties.
Yi-ching Hsiao, Associate Professor, Department of Public Administration, Tamkang University.
Change in Voters’ Candidate Evaluation during a Political Campaign: A Case Study of the 2012 Presidential Election in Taiwan Download
* Downloads: 207
Show abstract
Full content
The political context to which the electorate is exposed is filled with a variety of political information and becomes more and more competitive during political campaigns. This seems to mean that a given campaign facilitates the electorate to create for itself clearer and more drastic political preference based on party identi.cation up to voting day. The author utilizes the pre-election survey data from rolling cross-sectional telephone interviews during the 2012 Taiwan’s presidential election to detect the influence of party identification on candidate evaluation during the political campaign. It was found that the electorate had a signi.cantly clear preference between the main candidates up to voting day, especially for the more involved voters. Furthermore, the correlations between voters’ party identification and its political attitudes including candidate evaluation and government performance become increasingly tighter as voting day approaches. In conclusion, this study proves the reinforcement of the party identification effect during political campaigns and suggests that it would be worthy to investigate it in a different political context in the future.
Chiung-chu Lin,Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Soochow University.
Yuan-ming Hsu,Professor, Department of Political Science, Soochow University.
Shiow-duan Hawang,Professor, Department of Political Science, Soochow University.
Gender Difference in Political Knowledge: A Measurement Perspective Download
* Downloads: 117
Show abstract
Full content
This paper aims to study the gender difference on political knowledge from a measurement perspective. It asks if the gender difference becomes smaller when the questionnaires are more related to female essentials, and it further examines the factors that lead to gender difference. By using survey data from the TEDS2013, this paper breaks down the concept of political knowledge into three categories: knowledge of female politicians, knowledge of political institutions, and overall political knowledge. Based on the results from multiple regression models, the findings are clear that males have a better political knowledge than females in general. Females, however, demonstrated a better performance on the knowledge of female politicians. This shows an increasingly clear pattern of female political knowledge when the questionnaires are more closely associated with female essentials. The factors that lead to gender differences include the level of education, exposure to newspapers, political interest, marital status, and the degree of satisfaction with the president’s performance. People with a higher level of education, with more exposure to newspapers, with a greater degree of political interest, those who are married, and express less satisfaction with the president’s performance display higher political knowledge.
Teng-wen Chang,Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Public Administration, National Chengchi University.
Tong-yi Huang,Professor, Department of Public Administration, National Chengchi University.
Yung-tai Hung,Retired Professor, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
Post-Strati.ed Estimation Procedures for the Dual Frame Telephone Survey in Taiwan: The Case of the 2016 Presidential Election Download
* Downloads: 249
Show abstract
Full content
The advancement of information and communication technologies has greatly changed the lifestyle of people while using landline surveys in soliciting precise public opinion is becoming limited. As people use a variety of devices such as cellphones, internet phones and APPs in daily communication, problems of insufficient population coverage arise from relying only on landline phones to reach respondents. Therefore, a daunting task in the telephone polling industry is to ensure sample representation for obtaining precise population parameters. To achieve such an objective, a common practice by pollsters in Taiwan is to use household data as weighting statistics. Many cases, however, have shown this practice to be inappropriate.
To solve the above-mentioned problem, this study proposes an estimation method based on a dual frame survey that combines landline phones and cellphones. We further use data from the 2016 presidential election to compare different estimations based on a dual frame survey. Our results demonstrate that a “landline survey supplemented by cellphone-only” is the best combination, considering sample coverage and estimation error. The second-best alternatives are “cellphone survey supplemented by landline-only” and “use both landline and cellphone.” In other words, “the most economical and efficient” strategy of a dual frame survey is to conduct a traditional landline survey and incorporating cellphone-only respondents. The data collected in such combination not only reflect the characteristics of the population, but also cost much less than other strategies.