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257 article(s) found.
Associate Professor, Department of Public Administration and Management, Chinese Culture University.
;Professor, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
The Combination of Electoral System and Constitutional System: A Cross-Country Study of Semi-Presidential Democracies (in Chinese)
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With an analytical framework comprised of variables such as
parliamentary electoral system, political party system in the parliament,constitutional system (semi-presidentialism) and government type, this paper explores the differences among the constitutional operations from different combinations of the semi-presidentialism subtype (premier presidentialism and president parliamentarism) and the parliamentary electoral system (plurality with single-member-district system, proportional representation system, mixed-member proportional system and mixed-member majoritarian system) in the democracies all over the world. As far as semi-presidentialism is concerned, it is found that the overall constitutional operation under premier presidentialism, no matter which parliamentary electoral system is adopted, goes better than that under president parliamentarism. This finding can be another supportive reference for the perspective which believes premier presidentialism is better than president parliamentarism.Furthermore, the constitutional operation under the combination of president parliamentarism and plurality with a single-member-district
system (or mixed-member majoritarian system) is sometimes proceeds more smoothly than that under the combination of president parliamentarism and proportional representation system (or mixed-member proportional system),but sometimes it does not, and even becomes more obstructed. This shows the dilemma of how to choose a suitable parliamentary electoral system under president parliamentarism. Besides, this paper also observes the overall tendency of semi-presidential democracies’ choices for the presidential electoral system, and points out two common misconceptions. The first is the belief that whether the president has great constitutional powers or not is related to the presidential electoral system, and the second is the belief that the president elected via a plurality system has less democratic legitimacy than the president elected via a majority system. These two perspectives do not correspond to actual experiences, and should be clarified.
Assistant Professor, Department of International Business, Tamkang University;Professor, Department of Public Policy and Management, Shin Hsin University.
Effects of Survey Questionnaire Design: A Random Experiment in Measuring Political Knowledge as an Example (in Chinese)
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A survey is designed to explore the participants’ opinions, attitudes and actions towards certain topics. The amount of information possessed by participants is not the only factor that influences their willingness to participate; question types and options design also influence participants’ responses. In reality, given cost constraints and questionnaire length, it is not feasible to provide a multiple survey design for a single concept, or to verify participants' response mode under different survey designs. This study used an experimental design to measure political knowledge from Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study (TEDS) as an example, based on (1) an “open-ended vs. close-ended” question design; (2) whether it provides “non-response” as an option, to design four different types of surveys. The study uses a posttest-only control group design with university students as participants. We randomly released the questionnaires to participants and had 1,110 valid questionnaires.
The study found that question type and non-response design affects the participant response mode; a close-ended questionnaire design does increase the correct response ratio from participants, but it also produces a higher proportion of incorrect answers than an open-ended questionnaire. An openended
questionnaire design does not have options as reference, and so it could lower the willingness of participants to take part in the survey, and it therefore resulted in a higher non-response ratio. From the composite design of question type and non-response option, we were able to precisely estimate types of participants as in Mondak (1999), but the combinations of different types of participants vary significantly as results from the level of difficulties in a questionnaire designed to measure political knowledge.
Ph. D. Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University
Cognitive Madisonianism and Split-Ticket Voting in Taiwan: A Generalized Structural Equation Modeling Approach (in Chinese)
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Cognitive madisoniansim is crucial in political situations. It is not only an important value of democratic societies, but also a factor in explaining split-ticket voting. With the increase of minor parties and candidates, the media believe that Taiwan’s 2016 general elections have shown the most fierce split-ticket voting. It is worth mentioning that we shall not ignore the
issue of endogeneity caused by partisanship when discussing the relationship between cognitive madisoniansim and split-ticket voting. Based on the panel data of TEDS2016, this study aims to recategorize the cognitive madisoniansim of the respondents and resolve the issue of endogeneity by applying a generalized structural equation model (GSEM). By doing so, we aim to examine the relationship between cognitive madisoniansim and splitticket
voting.
The findings show that the public’s cognitive madisoniansim was
indeed affected by party preference. DPP supporters have tended to support cognitive madisoniansim in the past. However, they stopped supporting it once the DDP took over the government. The KMT showed the opposite situation. They had been against cognitive madisoniansim in the past. When they began losing elections, they started to support it. Regarding voting decisions, cognitive madsoniansim has positive effects on people’s decisions about straight-ticket voting or split-ticket voting. Nevertheless, most voters who cast straight-ticket voting for the DPP are those who stopped supporting or constantly supported cognitive madisoniansim. These two groups of voters
both prefer the DDP. This result indicates that the effect of voters’ cognitive madisoniansim on their voting behaviors still reflects their party preference.The above-mentioned issues present the endogeneity issue derived by explaining the split-ticket voting behaviors by cognitive madisoniansim and
the inevitability of GSEM methods. We suggest that researchers not ignore the effect of party preference as they examine the relationship between cognitive madisoniansim and split-ticket voting.
Research Fellow of Election Study Center and Professor of Graduate Institute of East Asian Studies,Taiwan Institute for Governance and Communication Research, National Chengchi University.
Electoral Competition, Incumbency, News Coverage, and Prediction Market Price: A Preliminary Study of Campaign Contributions and Spending in Taiwan’s 2016 Legislative Elections (in English)
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In a political campaign, candidates attempt to mobilize voters by using contributions from individuals, corporations, and political parties. It is an accepted fact of democracy that campaigns should attempt to outdo one another in both the amount they collect in contributions and what they spend on campaigns. Previous research has explored the incumbent advantage in campaign finance, but many interesting factors remain. For instance, is fund-raising aided by factors such as the closeness of an election or a candidate’s tenure in the Legislative Yuan? In this study, we explain campaign contributions using data from prediction markets and television news reports to account for variations in campaign spending. Our results suggest that incumbent advantage does indeed affect contributions and that DPP candidates outperformed other candidates in campaign finance. We also find that previous electoral margins and television news coverage contribute significantly to campaign donations, and that election betting has an impact on spending. These findings suggest that a political party’s general campaign can influence the election race of an individual candidate, and that contributors tend to bet on likely winners, deepening the influence of the electoral system on competing political parties.
Yi-ching Hsiao, Associate Professor, Department of Public Administration, Tamkang University.
Change in Voters’ Candidate Evaluation during a Political Campaign: A Case Study of the 2012 Presidential Election in Taiwan Download
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The political context to which the electorate is exposed is filled with a variety of political information and becomes more and more competitive during political campaigns. This seems to mean that a given campaign facilitates the electorate to create for itself clearer and more drastic political preference based on party identi.cation up to voting day. The author utilizes the pre-election survey data from rolling cross-sectional telephone interviews during the 2012 Taiwan’s presidential election to detect the influence of party identification on candidate evaluation during the political campaign. It was found that the electorate had a signi.cantly clear preference between the main candidates up to voting day, especially for the more involved voters. Furthermore, the correlations between voters’ party identification and its political attitudes including candidate evaluation and government performance become increasingly tighter as voting day approaches. In conclusion, this study proves the reinforcement of the party identification effect during political campaigns and suggests that it would be worthy to investigate it in a different political context in the future.
Chiung-chu Lin,Associate Professor, Department of Political Science, Soochow University.
Yuan-ming Hsu,Professor, Department of Political Science, Soochow University.
Shiow-duan Hawang,Professor, Department of Political Science, Soochow University.
Gender Difference in Political Knowledge: A Measurement Perspective Download
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This paper aims to study the gender difference on political knowledge from a measurement perspective. It asks if the gender difference becomes smaller when the questionnaires are more related to female essentials, and it further examines the factors that lead to gender difference. By using survey data from the TEDS2013, this paper breaks down the concept of political knowledge into three categories: knowledge of female politicians, knowledge of political institutions, and overall political knowledge. Based on the results from multiple regression models, the findings are clear that males have a better political knowledge than females in general. Females, however, demonstrated a better performance on the knowledge of female politicians. This shows an increasingly clear pattern of female political knowledge when the questionnaires are more closely associated with female essentials. The factors that lead to gender differences include the level of education, exposure to newspapers, political interest, marital status, and the degree of satisfaction with the president’s performance. People with a higher level of education, with more exposure to newspapers, with a greater degree of political interest, those who are married, and express less satisfaction with the president’s performance display higher political knowledge.
Teng-wen Chang,Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Public Administration, National Chengchi University.
Tong-yi Huang,Professor, Department of Public Administration, National Chengchi University.
Yung-tai Hung,Retired Professor, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
Post-Strati.ed Estimation Procedures for the Dual Frame Telephone Survey in Taiwan: The Case of the 2016 Presidential Election Download
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The advancement of information and communication technologies has greatly changed the lifestyle of people while using landline surveys in soliciting precise public opinion is becoming limited. As people use a variety of devices such as cellphones, internet phones and APPs in daily communication, problems of insufficient population coverage arise from relying only on landline phones to reach respondents. Therefore, a daunting task in the telephone polling industry is to ensure sample representation for obtaining precise population parameters. To achieve such an objective, a common practice by pollsters in Taiwan is to use household data as weighting statistics. Many cases, however, have shown this practice to be inappropriate.
To solve the above-mentioned problem, this study proposes an estimation method based on a dual frame survey that combines landline phones and cellphones. We further use data from the 2016 presidential election to compare different estimations based on a dual frame survey. Our results demonstrate that a “landline survey supplemented by cellphone-only” is the best combination, considering sample coverage and estimation error. The second-best alternatives are “cellphone survey supplemented by landline-only” and “use both landline and cellphone.” In other words, “the most economical and efficient” strategy of a dual frame survey is to conduct a traditional landline survey and incorporating cellphone-only respondents. The data collected in such combination not only reflect the characteristics of the population, but also cost much less than other strategies.
Karl Ho, Clinical Associate Professor, School of Economic, Policy and Political Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas.
Cal Clark, Emeritus Professor, Department of Political Science, Auburn University.
Alexander C. Tan, Professor, Department of Political Science and International Relations, University of Canterbury (NZ), and Chair Professor, Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Politicized to Mobilize? A Longitudinal Study of First-Time Voters’ Voting Intentions in Taiwan, 2004-2016 Download
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Much has been made about the “coming of age” of many Taiwanese young and new voters as an important factor contributing to the gratifying electoral result of the DPP and its pan-Green allies. The Taiwanese case, then, may be considered an aberration as the increased political activism among the younger Taiwanese voters stands in some contrast to the supposed apathy of their counterparts in the Western world. Indeed, this particular generation of young Taiwanese voters may have been “politicized” so much so that they are also easily “mobilized.” In this paper, we examine whether Taiwanese new voters are indeed politicized and whether their politicization translates to voting intentions. Using longitudinal TEDS surveys to detect common patterns of first-time voters’ voting behavior, preliminary results from our multivariate analysis indicate that first-time voters are not different in likelihood of participating in voting compared to other voters. The subtle difference, however, resides on the viable options with which these young cohorts can identify. This can be part of the reason they are more supportive of the new parties than merely the traditional parties.
Chung-li Wu, Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science at Academia Sinica.
Do Contacts Matter? Public Impressions of a Rising China in Taiwan (in English) Download
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The emergence of China as a first-tier world power is a critical issue both politically and economically, but what is often overlooked is how more frequent interaction with China influences public opinion. This study is aimed at assessing two competing approaches, "contact" theory and "group threat" theory, in an effort to understand how exposure to and contact with China influence Taiwanese citizens' impressions of China. More specifically, it focuses on how, as cross-Strait relations develop, the public in Taiwan may either have positive views or negative feelings toward China. Methodologically, in addition to the objective measurement of contact (exposure to China) employed in the previous literature, the paper uses a subjective measurement of contact (willingness to interact with China). This study analyzes both individual-level and aggregate-level datasets in the models; in doing this, it takes advantage of a 2014 nationwide telephone survey and considers the effects of the regional context. The findings demonstrate that the subjective measurement shows more variance in public opinion on China than the objective measure, and the contextual variables exert conditional influences upon Taiwanese people's overall disposition toward China. The results by and large confirm the validity of contact theory, but also indicate that it is too simplistic and straightforward, and therefore in need of revision. The data reveal that greater exposure is not enough to foster greater trust and cooperation between the two sides; it is increased willingness to interact that creates more favorable impressions.
Yi-shuan Chen, Associate Professor, Department of Insurance and Finance, National Taichung University of Science and Technology.
Tsui-yueh Cho, Associate Professor, Department of Insurance and Finance, National Taichung University of Science and Technology (corresponding author).
Shih-ting Pai, Bachelor Student, Department of Insurance and Finance, National Taichung University of Science and Technology.
The Impact of Presidential Elections on Taiwan's Stock Market (in Chinese) Download
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We use the event study approach to examine the impact of six direct presidential elections from 1996 to 2016 on the Taiwan stock market. Based on whether the pre-election polls show a significant winner or not, we separate all samples into expected and unexpected subsamples. We find a negative abnormal return during the pre-election windows and a positive abnormal return for the 30-day election period for the whole samples. However, the Cumulative Average Abnormal Returns (CAR) are not greater for the unexpected subsamples than they are for the expected subsamples, an outcome not consistent with the prediction of the Uncertain Information Hypothesis (UIH). Moreover, according to entrepreneurs' support for a specific candidate before the election dates, we divide their shares into the "Kuomintang-party-concept" and the "Democratic-Progressive-Party-concept" stocks. We investigate the election effect on these two concept stocks, as well as on their subsidiary company shares. Moreover, we find that the expected-losing-party stocks have a smaller CAR during the pre-event window but a greater CAR during the whole 30-day window than the expected-winning-party shares, as predicted by the UIH. These findings suggest that investors in the Taiwan stock market have a stronger reaction to bad news than to good news.