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290 article(s) found.
Chia-hung Tsai, Research Fellow of Election Study Center and Professor of Graduate Institute of East Asian Studies, National Chengchi University (corresponding author). E-mail: tsaich@nccu.edu.tw.
Alexander Tan, Professor, Political Science and International Relations, University of Canterbury, New Zealand and University Chair Professor, Political Science, National Chengchi University. E-mail: alex.tan@canterbury.ac.nz.
Ideological Congruence, Perceived Accountability, and Satisfaction with Democracy: Case Studies of Australia and New Zealand
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A growing body of cross-national studies has examined the ideological con-gruence between citizens and political parties and found that those citizens whose is ideology close to the winning party tend to be satisfied with democracy in their country. We extend the causal story of ideological congruence and satisfaction with democracy to Australia and New Zealand. As we estimate the effects of various socio-psychological factors on citizen satisfaction, we highlight the effect of perceived accountability and ideological congruence. We find that both factors contribute to satisfaction with democracy in New Zealand and Australia. Our empirical evidence not only confirms the extant literature but also suggests that perceived accountability has a larger influence in both democracies that use different election systems. This result has to do with the possibility that majoritarianism and proportional representation may produce coalition governments that locate ideology at the median voter. Therefore, democratic satisfaction primarily depends on if the government being controlled by its citizens.
Hung-i Lee, M.A., Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
Yu-tzung Chang, Professor, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University (corresponding author).
Negative Partisanship and Voting Choice: The Case of Presidential Elections in Taiwan, 2004-2020
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The bitter rivalries that used to occur only among political elites have now reached the everyday lives of the mass public. In particular, the results of presidential elections have been driven as much by affective conflict between partisans as by policy debates. The present study explores affective polarization in Taiwan through negative partisanship. Data from presidential elections between 2004 and 2020 provide evidence for the effect of negative partisanship on election results. The study found that starting in 2012, there has been a rapid increase in negative views among partisans in both main parties toward the opposing party. In the 2020 presidential election, more than 40% of both Kuomintang (KMT) and Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) supporters showed negative partisanship towards the opposing party. Furthermore, supporters of both parties had the lowest ever favorability scores for the opposing party. Even when traditional party identification and support for independence or reunification are controlled, negative partisanship still has significant explanatory power. The decision to vote for a candidate from a particular party in presidential elections depends not only on one’s long-term identification with that party but also on whether one harbors a strong negative opinion towards the opposing party.
Research Fellow, Election Study Center, National Cheng-chi University
An Analysis of Taiwanese/Chinese Identity: 2000-2021
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This paper employs qualitative data collected through focus group and in-depth interviews during the period of 2000-2021., The proposed research aims to explore how Taiwanese people define and interpret “Taiwanese”, “Chinese” and “both Taiwanese and Chinese (dual identities)”, and also to clarify people’s identity target and boundary. The result shows that Taiwanese people’s identity contents are continuous and concentrated in the Taiwan- centered “we group” consciousness. The primordialist ties with China persists, yet most of them are regarded as objective facts and cannot be generated or converted into the “we group” consciousness. The major change is that the Chinese consciousness has almost disappeared from popular discourse. Our data also shows that many Taiwanese people have treated Taiwan (Republic of China) as the “we group”, and China (People’s Republic of China) as the “they group”. This finding indicates that Taiwan identity has reached the stage of national identity in terms of boundary setting. The gradual clarity and elevationed consciousness of national identity impliesy that Taiwan has the tendency of reaching a collective identity.
Postdoctoral Research Fellow, Election Study Center, National Chengchi University.
Populism and the 2020 Mayoral Recall and By-election of Kaohsiung City
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Populism is deeply embedded in a democratic society, and a thin ideology composed of many different concepts affects people’s attitudes toward political elites and their vote choices. Based on voters’ populist inclination, this paper analyzes the voting in the recall of the mayor and the by-election of Kaohsiung City in 2020. In the two different voting periods, the voters’ populist inclination was affected by their demographic background and political attitudes.
This study uses two sets of data to analyze the voting for the recall and the by-election. One is “A Voting Study of Kaohsiung City’s Third Mayoral Recall” hosted by Tsai Chia-hung and conducted by the National Chengchi University’s Election Study Center, and the other is “Taiwan’s Election and Democratization Study, 2020-2024(I): Kaohsiung City Mayor By-Elections: Telephone Interview hosted by Chen Luhui” conducted by the National Chengchi University’s Election Study Center. We found that during the recall period, populism was affected by the age and education of the voters. During the by-election period, the populist inclination was affected by voters’ party identity, Taiwanese/Chinese identity, education and occupation. In addition, the populist inclination of Kaohsiung voters did not affect their decision to vote for recall. Their satisfaction with Han Guo-yu was the main reason for voters to vote for the recall and in the by-election, voters with lower populist inclination voted for Chen Chi-mai, but it did not influence voters to vote for Li Mei-jhen. Although Han Guo-yu helped Li Mei-jhen in the campaign, it did not affect the voters’ choice.
Jue-shyan Wang, Professor, Department of Public Finance, National Chengchi University. (Corresponding author)


Hong-yu Chen, Officer, Bureau of Standards, Metrology and Inspection, M.O.E.A
Three-Party Game of Cooperation and Competition in Single Member District Election Download
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Observing the process of the recent elections in Taiwan, we found that different political parties often negotiated with each other for the possibility of cooperation. Each party would decide whether to cooperate or not. This paper develops a three-party game theoretical model of single-seat elections to analyze the conditions under which that minor political party would agree to cooperate with major political parties, and discusses the rationality of decision from each political party. According to the equilibrium results, cooperation between political parties only occurs when certain conditions are met. The cooperative partner is not restricted to the most powerful party. In addition, there is a separating equilibrium in the case of asymmetric information. This leads to the conclusion that the larger difference between the strong type and the weak type of the major political party is, the more common minor political party would cooperate with the weak type of the major political party. Moreover, no cooperation takes place when the minor political party has zero cost in political elections.
M.A., Department of Political Science, National Chengchi University.
Maintaining or Expanding Support Bases? Local Councilors’ Distributive Strategies of Local Infrastructure Expenditures Download
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One of the most important debates in the distributive politics literature is who receives allocation. Previous studies on Taiwan’s distributive politics have examined predominantly the role played by the president, legislators and the local governments. The distributive strategies of local councilors, however, have been overlooked. Few explain the variations in the amount of resources within councilors’ electoral districts. Using data on local infrastructure expenditures by the 12 Taipei City councilors, this study investigates how rational politicians allocate infrastructure resources in order to maximize the probabilities of reelection, and whether local councilors use resources to reward their core supporters or to expand their support bases. We identify two dimensions—whether to allocate and the amount of money spent by councilors — to the mechanisms of resource allocation. Based on multi-level Tobit regression analysis, we first examine whether councilors tend to favor important sub-constituencies or not. The results indicate that councilors do reward their core supporters with public resources to maintain their electoral bases. How-ever, there is no significant difference in the amount of resources no matter how important the area is. Overall, our findings support the core hypothesis and point out that the allocation mechanism of city councilors should be revised.
Wen-jong Juan,Professor, Department of Public Policy and Management, Shih Hsin University.
Mei-rong Linand, Associate Professor, Department of International Business, Tamkang University.
Yung-tai Hung, Retired Professor, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
A Demographic Analysis of Eligible Population and Voter Population under Different Sampling Frames: The Case of the 2016 Presidential Election Survey Download
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The controversy over the authenticity of election polls or the representativeness of samples is the definition of “population” in election polls. Since voter turnout is not absolute, there is a difference between “eligible population” and “voter popula-tion”. Therefore, the demographic consistency between eligible population and voter population with different sample frames in election polls is a topic that has become crucial in survey methodology. The purpose of this study is threefold: (1) explor-ing the error of population coverage through reviewing the evolution of different sampling frames used in election polls in Taiwan; (2) clarifying the implication of eligible population and voter population in election studies and analyzing the 2016 presidential election campaign in Taiwan; (3) analyzing the difference of the polls conducted by TEDS for the 2016 presidential election by using different sample frames, and examining the effect of the weighting adjustment by population param-eters, and exploring its theoretical and practical implications.
This study found that there was a minor difference between the eligible popula-tion and the voter population in the 2016 presidential election in Taiwan. However, the polls from different sampling frames were not completely consistent with the polls from these two populations. The correction effect of the weighting adjustment by the different population parameter on voter turnout, vote gain, and encouraging voter participation is limited. Therefore, to resolve the gap between the poll results and the voting results, the definition of the population might not be critical. The selection of sample frames, the design of questionnaires, the improvement of inter-view skills, and the reduction of interview failures are more important factors.
Professor, Department of Public Administration, Tamkang University.
Professor, Department of Public Administration, Tamkang University.
Personality Traits and Partisan Affect Difference Download
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This study applies partisan affect as an indicator to understand the political cleavage in Taiwan. The main purpose is to examine whether personality traits ex-ert significant effects on shaping partisan affect. By means of telephone interviews, the research team successfully collected 1,601 samples. Hypotheses raised by this study focus on the direct and the moderating effects of personality traits on partisan affect. According to empirical evidence, conscientiousness exerts a positive and direct effect on partisan affect. Stronger conscientiousness leads to a larger differ-ence of partisan affect. In addition, the moderating effects of three personality traits are demonstrated. Both conscientiousness and extroversion benefit the influence of party identification on partisan affect. In contrast, agreeableness reduces the effect of party identification on partisan affect.
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Retired Professor, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
Comparisons of Estimation Efficiencies among Various Dual-frame Telephone Survey Weighting Procedures: A Study of Pre-election Polls Download
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This study looks into issues evolving from dual-frame telephone surveys car-ried out in Taiwan. Some issues have been resolved, while others are still being explored. Directions of future studies are also suggested.
This study employs indicators of election prediction errors to evaluate the effectiveness and pros and cons of various estimation procedures for combining data sets collected from dual-frame telephone surveys.
There are basically three types of combining dual-frame survey data, namely, all landline survey data plus those of cell-phone only; all cell-phone survey data plus those of landline only, and combing both sets of data according to their coverage proportions in the population. This study shows that the landline phone survey sam-ples differ systematically from the cell-phone survey samples in many demographical characteristics. Using a total predicting error indicator to compare the results of various estimation procedures in three election results, namely, the 2016 presidential election, the 2018 referendum on the samesex marriage law, and the 2020 presiden-tial election, this study finds the following: (1) The original data collected from the landline survey fares the best. (2) Adjusting data by applying weights derived from government household registration data enlarges the prediction errors for the land-line phone survey but performs slightly better for the cell-phone survey. (3) Due to selection bias from cell-phone survey samples, the prediction errors tend to be further away from the true election results. The damage done does not redeem its good intention for correcting the coverage shortcomings caused by the traditional landline phone survey.
The study also suggests several issues to be explored in future studies: (1) In-vestigate further the characteristics of using both landline and cell-phone samples for landline and cell-phone surveys. (2) Investigate the mode effects on landline and cell-phone surveys. (3) Investigate the performance of dual-frame telephone surveys in areas other than electoral studies.