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283 article(s) found.
Professor, Department of Public Administration, Tamkang University.
Professor, Department of Public Administration, Tamkang University.
Personality Traits and Partisan Affect Difference
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This study applies partisan affect as an indicator to understand the political cleavage in Taiwan. The main purpose is to examine whether personality traits ex-ert significant effects on shaping partisan affect. By means of telephone interviews, the research team successfully collected 1,601 samples. Hypotheses raised by this study focus on the direct and the moderating effects of personality traits on partisan affect. According to empirical evidence, conscientiousness exerts a positive and direct effect on partisan affect. Stronger conscientiousness leads to a larger differ-ence of partisan affect. In addition, the moderating effects of three personality traits are demonstrated. Both conscientiousness and extroversion benefit the influence of party identification on partisan affect. In contrast, agreeableness reduces the effect of party identification on partisan affect.
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Retired Professor, Department of Political Science, National Taiwan University.
Comparisons of Estimation Efficiencies among Various Dual-frame Telephone Survey Weighting Procedures: A Study of Pre-election Polls
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This study looks into issues evolving from dual-frame telephone surveys car-ried out in Taiwan. Some issues have been resolved, while others are still being ex-plored. Directions of future studies are also suggested.
This study employs indicators of election prediction errors to evaluate the ef-fectiveness and pros and cons of various estimation procedures for combining data sets collected from dual-frame telephone surveys.
There are basically three types of combining dual-frame survey data, namely, all landline survey data plus those of cell-phone only; all cell-phone survey data plus those of landline only, and combing both sets of data according to their coverage proportions in the population. This study shows that the landline phone survey sam-ples differ systematically from the cell-phone survey samples in many demographi-cal characteristics. Using a total predicting error indicator to compare the results of various estimation procedures in three election results, namely, the 2016 presidential election, the 2018 referendum on the same-sex marriage law, and the 2020 presiden-tial election, this study finds the following: (1) The original data collected from the landline survey fares the best. (2) Adjusting data by applying weights derived from government household registration data enlarges the prediction errors for the land-line phone survey but performs slightly better for the cell-phone survey. (3) Due to selection bias from cell-phone survey samples, the prediction errors tend to be fur-ther away from the true election results. The damage done does not redeem its good intention for correcting the coverage shortcomings caused by the traditional landline phone survey.
The study also suggests several issues to be explored in future studies: (1) In-vestigate further the characteristics of using both landline and cell-phone samples for landline and cell-phone surveys. (2) Investigate the mode effects on landline and cell-phone surveys. (3) Investigate the performance of dual-frame telephone surveys in areas other than electoral studies.
The Effect of Social Context on Individual Vote Choices: Evidence from Taiwan’s 2016 Presidential Election Download
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In recent years, the internet has become more and more important in elections.Since the internet has become a major source of information for voters whilst also providing a platform for people to discuss politics, it can be concluded that the internet has a major impact on voters’ decisions. Therefore, it has become important for more studies to be focused on this phenomenon. Due to the social nature of the internet with the fast-paced societal changes which it brings about, this study uses a sociological approach of voting behavior to understanding this phenomenon. However, this does not suggest that the internet and new social media are eclipsing the more traditional forms of social contexts. Instead, this study suggests that new social media and social contexts are indicative of new and interesting changes taking place.

This study concentrates on the 2016 presidential election and specifically looks
at different contextual factors. These include social environment, interpersonal discussion, traditional media and social media. This research conducted both a telephone survey and a web survey. After controlling for party identification, we find that interpersonal discussion and TV news have significant effects on voter choice in the telephone survey. Social media only showed their impact in the web survey. Ourresearch suggests that we cannot ignore social context factors.
Professor, Department of Public Policy and Management, Shih Hsin University. E-mail:
jwj@mail.shu.edu.tw

Associate Professor, Center of Holistic Education, Mackay Medical College. E-mail:
zhang@mmc.edu.tw(corresponding author)

Assistant Professor, Department of International Business, Tamkang University. E-mail:
134660@mail.tku.edu.tw
The Phenomenon and Interpretation of Removal of the Party Labels: Evidence from the 2018 Local Elections in Taiwan Download
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Political parties enlist voter support from electoral mobilization. It not only helps the party’s candidate win the election but also cultivates political talents and builds the party’s strength for sustainable development. In the election of local public officials in 2018, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) led to social controversy due to the implementation of a few reform policies in the central government, which led to a significant reduction in the seats of mayors and county magistratesand a decline in the share of votes. On the contrary, the Kuomintang (KMT) benefited from the atmosphere of “Dislike DPP,” and the “Han Wave (韓流)” originated in Kaohsiung city, which made a huge gain in the mayor and county magistrate elections and got higher vote shares. From the perspective of party politics, beneath the surface of one party’s gain and another party’s loss in the local-level elections, one topic that deserves attention is whether the political power of the political parties in local politics has changed after Taiwan has experienced three times party alternations? And from the perspective of the analysis of the aggregate data, what is the political meaning of the topic of removing the party label in the local election?

This study mainly took the 2018 local public officers’ elections in Taiwan as an example. We collects the data of the local elections in the past 10 years and cross-checks the results of the national referendum held at the same time as the 2018 election. The methods which are used in this study to examine difference and correlation of votes gained by the DPP, KMT, and independent candidates in various levels of local elections included descriptive statistics, data visualization, analysis of (partial) correlation, ecological regression, and principal component analysis. The findings including: (1) the phenomenon of de-labeling of political parties in the lower-level elections is more obvious in local elections, especially the KMT label; (2) while the party label will still reduce the votes of independent candidates, but the party label may also be hidden in the election; (3) the voter’s attitude towards referendum issues can assist in judging their political affiliation and establishing an “alternative”political map; (4) in addition to mayoral elections, the more support the KMT’s position, the less vote for independent candidates.
Research Assistant, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica. E-mail: as0191121@gate.sinica.edu.tw.

Research Fellow, Institute of Political Science, Academia Sinica. E-mail: polclw@gate.sinica.edu.tw.
Social Distance and Cross-Strait Relations:Taiwanese Attitudes toward the Independence/Unification Issue Download
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This study probes Taiwanese perception of social distance toward China and its impact on their political attitudes toward the issue of independence/unification. Taking advantage of social distance and social identity theories from social psychology, we hypothesize that the Taiwanese people with a smaller perceived social distance toward China would indicate an inclination for China unification; otherwise, they would prefer Taiwan’s independence. We modify the relational models theory to construct two variables to approximate social distance: we ask respondents first whether they regard China as a family member or a partner, and second, whether China views Taiwan as a family member or a partner. To examine our arguments, we utilize the “2019 Survey of the Image of China” to investigate the association between different types of relational cognitions and their impacts on cross-Strait relations. The findings by and large confirm the validity of the relational models
theory, revealing that the Taiwanese electorate is prone to support unification when
it perceives a closer social distance toward China. The results also demonstrate that
those who are willing to accept China as an in-group tend to expect reciprocity from
China. In contrast, those perceiving a greater social distance toward China exhibit ambivalent independence/unification preferences; they express less intimate attitudes but also do not exhibit great hostility toward China.
Assistant Professor, Department of Diplomacy and International Relations, Tamkang Univer-
sity.
Opposition Parties’ Electoral Strategies and the Defeat of Dominant Parties: An Empirical Study of Parti Islam Se-Malaysia (PAS) and the 2018 Malaysian General Election Download
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Since Malaysia’s independence in 1957, the United Malay National Organization (UMNO)-led Barisan Nasional (BN) coalition government governed Malaysia for 61 years, maintaining a competitive authoritarian system. However, Malaysia experienced its first-ever party turnover in May 2018. To understand the reason why Malaysia’s competitive authoritarian system collapsed, the existing literature suggests two key explanations for BN’s electoral defeat: increasing urbanization, and Mahathir causing a split among the governing elites. Combining the theoretical perspectives of party politics and ethnic voting, this paper argues that Parti Islam Se-Malaysia’s (Malaysian Islamic Party, PAS) change of policy objective also was a factor in explaining BN’s electoral defeat. Specifically, the PAS changed its goal from “office-seeking” to “policy seeking.” In order to promote Islam, the PAS cut ties with the opposition coalition that it had joined for the past 20 years, because the Democratic Action Party (DAP) conflicted with the PAS with respect to its Islamization policy. The PAS established a new party coalition and focused on promoting Islam, which helped the PAS gain support from the Malay Muslim voters who had not voted for PAS because of its previous alliance with the DAP. Accordingly, this study hypothesizes that the PAS undermined BN’s electoral performance. To test this hypothesis, this study conducts a quantitative analysis using data from 165 electoral districts in West Malaysia. The empirical results demonstrate that BN’s electoral support was largely undermined in the districts where the PAS contested the election.
Associate Professor, Department of Hakka Language and Social Sciences, National Central University.
The Electoral System and Ethnic Politics: The Case of Legislative Redistricting in Hsinchu County Download
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The design of the electoral system includes seats, voting, and electoral districts. From the Seventh Legislative Yuan, the single electoral district and the two-vote system have been adopted. According to Article 35 of the “Civil Servants Election and Recall Act,” seat distribution in the Legislative Yuan is reconsidered every 10 years to account for changes in the population. In 2020, the number of lawmakers’ seats increased from 1 to 2 in Hsinchu County. This study employs a literature review to explore the voting system and legislative redistricting, as well as voting-behavior theory to discuss the issue of redrawing electoral districts in Hsinchu County. The findings include: (1) The legislators’ electoral districts of Hsinchu County are divided into a “Minnan-Hakka mixed constituency” and a “Hakka constituency”. Learning from Miaoli’s experience, Hsinchu may have one Minnan lawmaker and one Hakka lawmaker. (2) In or-der to win the 2020 legislative election, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) is employing a new campaign strategy, namely, the “dual identity of political parties and ethnic groups” model, via nominating Hakka candidates in Hsinchu and Miaoli.
PhD student, National Development Department, National Taiwan University.
Professor, Department of Sociology, Tunghai University
Public Orientation on the Nuclear-free Homeland Issue: A Big-Data Analysis of Online Comments Download
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In November 2018, a nuclear-free homeland issue in Taiwan was rejected by voters in a nuclear referendum. A question thus arises: When voters are making a choice over a type of energy source, do they consider only the pros and cons of the issue, or do political emotions underlie their decision? Our study aims to answer this through a big-data analysis. Compared to 2016, we find that negative online comments concerning Tsai Ing-wen, the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), and a nuclear-free homeland increased during 2018, basically matching various polls with a relatively small amplitude of variation. The inference of “when the public is more dissatisfied with Tsai and the DPP administration, they become more opposed to a nuclear-free homeland issue” supports this finding. One potential reason could, in part, be the influence of political emotions. Dissatisfaction toward Tsai and the DPP administration by the public appears to have extended to DPP-related issues such as the nuclear-free homeland issue. In terms of negative online comments, compared with the topic of Tsai, the topic of the DPP greatly influences the topic of a nuclear-free homeland and vice versa. In others words, negative online comments of a nuclear-free homeland are more likely to increase if negative online comments of the DPP increase.
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