Vol.26 No.1

Date of publication: 2019-05
Associate Research Professor, Institutum Iurisprudentiae, Academia Sinica
To What Extent Do We Know about Money in Politics? An Assessment of the Political Finance Disclosure Law in Taiwan
pp.01-30
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Disclosure is the most important means by which citizens in a democracy obtain information about money in electoral politics, and as such, the efficacy of the political finance disclosure determines, to a significant extent, what and how much we know about the actual workings of a political finance system. This study assesses political finance disclosure in Taiwan. While recognizing that sanctions against false disclosure are bound
to be under-enforced, this study argues that loopholes in the coverage of the disclosure rules are the main culprits for the “dark money” in Taiwan politics. This study calls for a structural overhaul of the existing regime, the institutional performance of which is seriously hindered by a conventional
misunderstanding of the purpose of political finance disclosure. In addition to tracking transactions of political finance at the retail level for the sake of informing voters and enforcing other rules governing political finance, an effective disclosure regime should strive to provide citizens with information about macro-political finance.
Postdoctoral Fellow, Center Survey Research, Research Center for Humanities and Social Sciences, Academia Sinica.
Allocation of Dual-Frame Telephone Survey for Given Cost
pp.31-56
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With the increase of cell phone usage in recent years, traditional landline surveys face a problem of incomplete coverage. It is now necessary to conduct dual-frame telephone surveys that includes cell phone samples and landline samples. Designing a dual-frame telephone survey requires a decision on the sample allocation. The allocation of the sample to the dual-frame associates with the unequal weighting effect and the survey cost. Therefore, this study aimed to illustrate an optimal allocation of respondents from landline and cellphone frames that result in the lowest unequal weight effect (i.e., the highest effective sample size) for a given cost by using the relative unit cost of obtaining a cell respondent compared to a landline respondent from a comparison study of survey cost, and an unequal weighting effect from “Public Value and Electronic Governance.” The results suggested that the optimal design will have 64.18% of the sample completes from the landline frame, and 35.82% of the sample completes from the cellphone frame in a cell-phone-only screened design. Additionally, this paper shows that the sample sizes of cell phone only could be a function of unequal weight effect and survey cost. Thus, the organizer of the cell-phone-only screened design could substitute parameters into the function depending on different situations.
Associate Professor, Department of Applied Social Science, the Hong Kong Polytechnic University; Clinical Associate Professor, School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas; Ashbel Smith Professor, School of Economic, Political and Policy Sciences, University of Texas at Dallas
Mass Production of Individualized Services: Machine Politics in Hong Kong
pp.57-88
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Political machines are built to distribute spoils, buy support, and influence election outcome. Existing research argues that political machines target poor and illiterate voters because their votes are cheap to acquire with non-programmatic benefits. Using the case of Hong Kong, we critically examine the extent to which the ruling coalition utilizes non-programmatic benefits in elections where votes are generally too expensive to purchase. Using interviews with local councilors and data from the 2015 Hong Kong Election Study, we find that: (1) pro-Beijing parties tend to specialize in the provision of highly individualized services; (2) demand for these services tends to come from non-poor citizens; and (3) unable to monitor individual votes, pro-Beijing parties use services and benefits to influence the turnout of the recipients, rather than their vote choice. These findings suggest that the growing electoral strength of pro-Beijing parties in Hong Kong reflects their responsiveness to constituent demands.
Associate Professor, Department of Journalism, Chinese Culture University; Assistant Professor, Department of Information Management, Chung Yuan Christian University (Corresponding author)
Taiwan 2016: How Political Candidates’ Adoption of Facebook Fan Pages and Interaction with Supporters Relate to Election Outcomes
pp.89-121
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The adoption of social media in political marketing has grown dramatically over the past ten years, as it creates two-way communication that stimulates and fosters candidates’ relationships with voters. However, can the count of “supporters” and “likes” recorded on the Facebook page of a candidate predict whether he/she will win the elections or not? In view of this, predicting an electoral outcome using “big” social media data is a new research topic that has emerged due to the exponential growth of social media. This study examines the extent to which political candidates’ use of Facebook fan pages and interaction with their supporters are related to the election outcomes (vote share and election success) of Taiwan’s 2016 legislator election campaign. Facebook data were acquired for all 354 candidates. The findings indicate: a candidate’s Facebook presence is related to his/her election outcomes. Positive correlations were also observed to exist between the numbers of supporters/likes candidates secured on their official fan pages and their popular vote share. Moreover, the “net-fans ratio” preliminary model, based on a candidate’s likes/supporters and excluding those repeated with respective opponents, has an explanatory power to forecast regional legislators’ election outcome with 81.5% accuracy of all the seats, and with 87.9% accuracy of the seats of 6 major municipalities. Hence, Facebook data could be a significant indicator of electoral success.
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Last modification time: 2019-08-13 11:43:56